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Match Prediction

Sao Paulo vs Flamengo RJ Prediction

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Brazil flag Brazil

Sao Paulo

€74.95m

28 Jan19:30
2 : 1

Flamengo RJ

€189.70m

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Sao Paulo vs Flamengo RJ Prediction Serie A

Sao Paulo vs Flamengo RJ Prediction: Can Morumbi Magic Upset the Odds?

Welcome to our Sao Paulo vs Flamengo RJ prediction, where we dive into the numbers, tactics, and betting tips behind this much-anticipated Serie A meeting at MorumBIS. With Flamengo sitting pretty in 6th and Sao Paulo battling in 17th, the stakes are high, and the odds are tempting. Let’s unravel the story behind the stats and see where the smart money might land.

Team Form, Tactics, and the Morumbi Factor

There’s never a dull moment when Sao Paulo and Flamengo RJ step onto the pitch together. With a head to head history spanning 56 battles—21 wins for Sao Paulo, 18 for Flamengo, and 17 draws—these two are old sparring partners. On average, their meetings bring 2.52 goals per game, meaning fans can usually expect a bit of drama.

  • Sao Paulo’s Approach: Under Hernan Crespo, the hosts have become known for their disciplined defensive setup, often lining up in a 4.0-3 or 4.0-3-1. Quick transitions and set pieces are their bread and butter, though injuries to key attackers like Paulinho and Felipe could limit their firepower this time.
  • Flamengo’s Style: Coach Filipe Luís has built a team that loves to control the ball, push wide with their full-backs, and create chances through clever movement and passing. Even with some stars like De Arrascaeta and Ayrton Lucas managing fitness, Flamengo’s squad depth means they rarely lack for attacking options.

Recent form tells a tale of two teams: Sao Paulo have averaged 1.00 goal per match in 2026, while Flamengo have been a bit shy in front of goal with 0.75 per game. However, Flamengo’s away matches always bring goals—100% have seen over 2.5. Sao Paulo, meanwhile, have split their home games between low and high scoring affairs.

Key Players, Injuries, and Off-the-Pitch Moves

Both teams are juggling injuries and off-field drama. Sao Paulo’s midfield is missing Luan, and the attack could be blunted if Paulinho and Felipe aren’t fit. There’s even talk of Sao Paulo eyeing Flamengo’s Allan for a loan—football’s version of window shopping while your rival’s back is turned.

For Flamengo, the revolving door continues: Renato has left, while Bruno the goalkeeper has renewed. Several stars are nursing knocks, but the squad is deep, and the main group should be ready for this fixture. The Morumbi crowd will try to rattle them, but Flamengo’s big-game experience is hard to shake.

Sao Paulo vs Flamengo RJ Prediction: Betting Tips and AI Insights

Now, let’s get to the Sao Paulo vs Flamengo RJ prediction and what our NerdyTips AI is whispering in our ears. The bookmakers have Flamengo as favorites at 2.25 for the win, with Sao Paulo at 4.0 and the draw at 3.2. Here’s how our data and gut instincts line up:

  1. Best Value Bet: Our AI likes the X2 bet (Flamengo win or draw) at 1.28, with a trust level of 4.0/10. Not the bravest pick, but history and squad value (€189.70m vs €74.95m) back up the logic.
  2. 1x2 Prediction: The straight win for Flamengo at 2.25 is flagged as the best 1x2 bet by our AI, trust level 3.1. Given Flamengo’s recent away form and Sao Paulo’s injury woes, this looks reasonable.
  3. Goals Market: Under 3.5 goals at 1.34 is another suggestion, with a trust rating of 2.9. Both teams have been involved in close, tactical games lately, and the predicted scoreline is 1:2 (0:1 at half-time).

For those who love a stat: Flamengo’s last visit to Morumbi ended 2-2, and Sao Paulo are unbeaten in their last two home games against Flamengo. But with Flamengo’s squad depth and Sao Paulo’s injury list, the wind seems to be blowing in favor of the visitors.

Final Thoughts: Will History Repeat or Will the Odds Hold?

Our Sao Paulo vs Flamengo RJ prediction is leaning towards Flamengo, either to win or at least avoid defeat. The away side’s superior squad value and tactical flexibility, combined with Sao Paulo’s injury problems, make the X2 bet a solid choice for cautious punters. If you’re feeling bold, the straight Flamengo win offers juicy odds.

Expect a tight first half (likely 0:1), and don’t be surprised if it finishes 1:2, as our AI suggests. The Morumbi crowd will do their best to make it tough, but Flamengo look well-equipped to handle the pressure and keep their push for the top spots alive.

Whatever the outcome, this fixture always delivers stories worth telling. Good luck, and may your bets be as sharp as a well-timed through ball!

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Flamengo RJ didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Sao Paulo vs Flamengo RJ

X2 -357

Flamengo RJ to win or draw with odds of -357
4/10

1x2 Tip

2 125

Flamengo RJ is expected to win with odds of 125
3/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -625

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
2/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes 130

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 -256

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
2/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

0:1

Correct Score

1:2

Average / Match

3.2
Total Goals
2.6
1.1
Goals Scored
1.3
2.1
Goals Against
1.3
53%
Possession
50%
9.7
Total Shots
13.1
3.4
Shots on Goal
4.3
4.4
Shots off Goal
6
13.8
Fouls
13
3.4
Corners
3
1.1
Offsides
0.9
415
Total Passes
499

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
4
8
Over 1.5 Goals
8
7
Over 2.5 Goals
5
4
Over 3.5 Goals
1
5
Both Teams Scored
6
0
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Sao Paulo
14 - 12 - 13
Flamengo RJ
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 06-Nov-25
2:2
Flamengo RJ Flamengo RJ
Flamengo RJ Flamengo RJ 12-Jul-25
2:0
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 19-Jan-25
0:0
Flamengo RJ Flamengo RJ
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 04-Aug-24
1:0
Flamengo RJ Flamengo RJ
Flamengo RJ Flamengo RJ 18-Apr-24
2:1
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 07-Dec-23
1:0
Flamengo RJ Flamengo RJ
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 24-Sep-23
1:1
Flamengo RJ Flamengo RJ
Flamengo RJ Flamengo RJ 17-Sep-23
0:1
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Flamengo RJ Flamengo RJ 13-Aug-23
1:1
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo

Profile time Recent Matches of Sao Paulo

31 Jan Sao Paulo Sao Paulo.
-
Santos. Santos
24 JanL Palmeiras Palmeiras.
3:1
Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo
21 JanL Sao Paulo Sao Paulo.
2:3
Portuguesa. Portuguesa
18 JanD Corinthians Corinthian.
1:1
Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo
16 JanW Sao Paulo Sao Paulo.
1:0
Sao Bernar. Sao Bernardo
11 JanL Mirassol Mirassol.
3:0
Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo
07 DecL Vitoria Vitoria.
1:0
Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo
03 DecW Sao Paulo Sao Paulo.
3:0
Internacio. Internacional
27 NovL Fluminense Fluminense.
6:0
Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo
23 NovW Sao Paulo Sao Paulo.
2:1
Juventude. Juventude

Profile time Recent Matches of Flamengo RJ

25 JanLFluminense Fluminense.
2:1
Flamengo R.Flamengo RJ
22 JanWFlamengo RJ Flamengo R.
1:0
Vasco.Vasco
18 JanLVolta Redonda Volta Redo.
3:0
Flamengo R.Flamengo RJ
15 JanLBangu Bangu.
2:1
Flamengo R.Flamengo RJ
11 JanDFlamengo RJ Flamengo R.
1:1
Portuguesa.Portuguesa
17 DecDPSG PSG.
1:1
Flamengo R.Flamengo RJ
13 DecWFlamengo RJ Flamengo R.
2:0
Pyramids.Pyramids
10 DecWCruz Azul Cruz Azul.
1:2
Flamengo R.Flamengo RJ
06 DecDMirassol Mirassol.
3:3
Flamengo R.Flamengo RJ
04 DecWFlamengo RJ Flamengo R.
1:0
Ceara.Ceara

Brazil - Serie A Brazil - Serie A

Team Matches Goals Points
1 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino0
0-0
0
2 Internacional Internacional0
0-0
0
3 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama0
0-0
0
4 Gremio Gremio0
0-0
0
5 Botafogo Botafogo0
0-0
0
6 Santos Santos0
0-0
0
7 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo0
0-0
0
8 Coritiba Coritiba0
0-0
0
9 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro0
0-0
0
10 Vitoria Vitoria0
0-0
0
11 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG0
0-0
0
12 Fluminense Fluminense0
0-0
0
13 Flamengo Flamengo0
0-0
0
14 Palmeiras Palmeiras0
0-0
0
15 Atletico Paranaense Atletico0
0-0
0
16 Bahia Bahia0
0-0
0
17 Corinthians Corinthians0
0-0
0
18 Mirassol Mirassol0
0-0
0
19 remo remo0
0-0
0
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc0
0-0
0
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