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Sarmiento

€11.70m

22 Mar13:30
2 : 0

Aldosivi

€8.68m

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Sarmiento vs Aldosivi Prediction Liga Profesional Argentina

Sarmiento Junin vs Aldosivi prediction: a tense six-pointer

The Sarmiento Junin vs Aldosivi prediction for Sunday, March 22, 2.456 (18:30 GMT) pretty much writes itself: this is Round 12 of the Apertura, and it feels like a match where nerves can be louder than the fans at Estadio Eva Perón. Both teams are staring at the relegation coefficient table and, honestly, nobody wants to blink first.

Why this one matters: the promedios pressure

This is a direct duel in the fight for survival. Sarmiento sit 28th in the tabla de promedios with 0.976, just a step above Aldosivi in 29th with 0.925. That’s why it has “six-pointer” written all over it: three points gained is three points denied, and the mental edge can last weeks.

Team news, mood, and what it means on the pitch

Aldosivi arrive with turbulence in the dugout. Guillermo Farré was dismissed on March 17 after a 0-0 with Huracán, leaving them still without a league win in this Apertura. The interim job falls to Reserve coach Facundo Oreja, with the board still searching after reported talks with Martín Palermo and Omar de Felippe went nowhere.

On the other side, Sarmiento keep backing Facundo Sava. They’re 12th in Group B with 10 points (3W, 1D, 6L) and come off a 2-0 loss to River. Under Sava, the pattern has been clear: Sarmiento are much more reliable at home, while their away form has been a headache.

Absences to note

  • Alan Sosa is suspended for Aldosivi (direct red ban).
  • Franco De La Vega is out with a hip injury.
  • Nicolás Breitenbruch remains sidelined with a cruciate ligament injury.
  • Sarmiento have no major new injury alarms reported after facing River.

The emotional temperature matters too. Farré’s final comments were telling: he said the team were playing to “rescue points” and looked mentally low. Oreja’s first task is simple to say and hard to do—get Aldosivi to play to win, not just to survive the next 90 minutes.

Head to head and recent “against the odds” reminders

The latest head to head meeting (2.455-09-14) ended 2-0 to Sarmiento, and it’s the kind of result that feeds the home crowd’s belief. Still, both sides have shown they can surprise the market: Sarmiento grabbed a 1-1 away draw at San Lorenzo on 2.455-11-15 when priced at 6.0, while Aldosivi stunned Unión in Santa Fe on 2.455-10-04 with a 2-0 away win at odds of 6.4.

Betting tips and AI picks for the match prediction

Now for the numbers behind our Sarmiento Junin vs Aldosivi prediction. The 1x2 odds lean home: Sarmiento win 2.45, draw 3.0, Aldosivi 3.85. That lines up with squad value too (€11.70m vs €8.68m), but this fixture screams “tight margins.”

Our AI selections

  • Main betting tip: Under 2.5 goals (confidence 8.0/10) at odds 1.37.
  • 1x2 prediction: Home win (1) with trust level 4.8 at odds 2.455.
  • Correct score call: 1-0 (also 1-0 at half-time).

The match model expects Sarmiento to have about 56% possession, with Aldosivi on 44%. Shots are projected at 13-11, but the key is accuracy: 4 on target for Sarmiento versus just 1 for Aldosivi. That supports the under 2.5 angle more than any romantic idea of a goal fest. Corners are balanced (4-4, eight total), and discipline looks even too (2 yellows each), which again hints at a controlled, cautious game rather than chaos.

So, if you want the cleanest read, the under 2.5 goals is the strongest of our betting tips. And if you’re playing the 1x2, Sarmiento at home makes sense—but with a lower trust rating, because relegation battles love to turn logic into stress.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Sarmiento vs Aldosivi

U2.5 -270

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -270
8/10

1x2 Tip

1 145

Sarmiento is expected to win with odds of 145
4/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -270

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
8/10

Both Teams To Score

No -179

At least one team is not expected to score
5/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U3.5 -167

Home win/draw and under 3.5 goals
4/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:0

Stats Predictions

1.39
xG
0.65
56%
Ball Possession
44%
13
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Goal
1
4
Shots Off Goal
5
4
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.04
Expected Goals
0.67
1.7
Total Goals
1.5
0.6
Goals Scored
0.6
1.1
Goals Against
0.9
49%
Possession
49%
10.6
Total Shots
11.1
3.9
Shots on Goal
1.9
3.5
Shots off Goal
5.7
14.8
Fouls
15.4
3.8
Corners
4.2
1.7
Offsides
1.1
4.2
Yellow Cards
2.7
323
Total Passes
334

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
1
4
Over 1.5 Goals
5
3
Over 2.5 Goals
2
1
Over 3.5 Goals
1
3
Both Teams Scored
3
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Sarmiento Junin
6 - 4 - 2
Aldosivi
Aldosivi Aldosivi 01-Mar-25
2:2
Sarmiento Sarmiento Junin
Aldosivi Aldosivi 03-Sep-22
1:2
Sarmiento Sarmiento Junin
Aldosivi Aldosivi 10-Dec-12
1:1
Sarmiento Sarmiento Junin
Aldosivi Aldosivi 03-Nov-13
0:0
Sarmiento Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento 22-Mar-26
2:0
Aldosivi Aldosivi
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento 14-Sep-25
2:0
Aldosivi Aldosivi
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento 09-Oct-21
3:0
Aldosivi Aldosivi
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento 08-Jun-13
1:0
Aldosivi Aldosivi
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento 03-May-14
0:1
Aldosivi Aldosivi
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento 02-Mar-15
2:2
Aldosivi Aldosivi

Profile time Recent Matches of Sarmiento

25 AprW Sarmiento Sarmiento 1 Tigre Tigre 0
20 AprL Rosario C Rosario C 2 Sarmiento Sarmiento 1
13 AprL Sarmiento Sarmiento 1 Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P. 2
09 AprW Sarmiento Sarmiento 1 Tristan S Tristan S 0
02 AprW Barracas Barracas 1 Sarmiento Sarmiento 2
22 MarW Sarmiento Sarmiento 2 Aldosivi Aldosivi 0
15 MarL River Plate River Plate 2 Sarmiento Sarmiento 0
11 MarD Sarmiento Sarmiento 0 Racing Club Racing Club 0
03 MarW Sarmiento Sarmiento 1 Estudiant Estudiant 0
26 FebL Sarmiento Sarmiento 1 Union S Union S 3

Profile time Recent Matches Of Aldosivi

26 AprLRiver Plate River Plate 3 Aldosivi Aldosivi 1
19 AprDAldosivi Aldosivi 1 Racing Club Racing Club 1
11 AprLBelgrano C Belgrano C 1 Aldosivi Aldosivi 0
04 AprDAldosivi Aldosivi 0 Estudiant Estudiant 0
31 MarLAldosivi Aldosivi 0 Argentino Argentino 2
22 MarLSarmiento Sarmiento 2 Aldosivi Aldosivi 0
16 MarDAldosivi Aldosivi 0 Huracan Huracan 0
12 MarDAtl. Tucuman Atl. Tucuman 1 Aldosivi Aldosivi 1
03 MarLBanfield Banfield 2 Aldosivi Aldosivi 0
23 FebLUnion S Union S 1 Aldosivi Aldosivi 0

Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Team M G P
1 Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors880-0156
2 River PlateRiver Plate880-0152
3 Velez SarsfieldVelez880-0143
4 Racing ClubRacing Club880-0143
5 Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS880-0142
6 Rosario CentralRosario880-0140
7 Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes880-0133
8 LanusLanus880-0132
9 Talleres CordobaTalleres880-0131
10 IndependienteIndependiente880-0131
11 HuracanHuracan880-0130
12 Independ. RivadaviaIndepend.880-0122
13 Barracas CentralBarracas880-0119
14 Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe880-0119
15 San LorenzoSan Lorenzo880-0118
16 Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y880-0115
17 Deportivo RiestraDeportivo880-0110
18 Belgrano CordobaBelgrano880-0109
19 Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P.880-0109
20 PlatensePlatense880-0108
21 TigreTigre880-0107
22 Instituto CordobaInstituto880-0105
23 Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de880-0100
24 Newells Old BoysNewells Old880-096
25 Atletico TucumanAtletico880-095
26 Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.150-016
27 BanfieldBanfield880-091
28 Sarmiento JuninSarmiento880-089
29 AldosiviAldosivi470-040
30 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoEstudiantes de Rio150-05
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