Sarpsborg 08 vs Ham-Kam Prediction

Sarpsborg 08 vs Ham-Kam Prediction: Can the Hosts Cement Their Upper-Mid Table Ambitions?

As the Norwegian Eliteserien calendar ticks into mid-May, all eyes turn to Sarpsborg Stadion for a fixture that, on paper, looks like a classic case of home comfort versus away adversity. This Sarpsborg 08 vs Ham-Kam prediction dives deep into form, stats, and tactical nuance to offer football fans and bettors a clear-eyed preview ahead of the 2025-05-11 kickoff at 16:00 GMT.

Setting the Scene: Table Stakes and Recent Form

After five rounds, Sarpsborg 08 find themselves in a respectable 8th place with 8 points—four points and six spots clear of Ham-Kam, who languish in 14th on just 4 points. The gap is telling, but not insurmountable, especially in a league where surprises are never far away. Still, the betting odds for this encounter speak volumes: a home win is priced at 1.55, a draw at 4.3, and an away win at a distant 5.4. According to NerdyTips' AI, the best bet is a home win (tip: 1), backed by a confidence rating of 10.0/10 and those inviting 1.55 odds.

Eliteserien Trends: What the Numbers Say

• Home teams win 44.1% of matches, while away sides take just 28.2%.


• Draws occur 27.7% of the time—hardly a coin flip, but not rare either.


• Both teams score in 56.1% of games, with over 2.5 total goals in 56.5% and over 1.5 goals in a hefty 76.5%.


• Over 3.5 goals land in 35.1% of fixtures, hinting at a league where attacking intent is rarely in short supply.

These trends dovetail neatly with the Sarpsborg 08 vs Ham-Kam prediction for a 2:1 home win, with Sarpsborg 08 leading 1:0 at halftime. The over/under market leans toward over 2.5 goals (trust level 5.5, odds 1.64), reflecting the league’s penchant for open, attacking football.

Head to Head: Recent Encounters and Upset Potential

The most recent head to head, played on 2025-03-07, saw Sarpsborg 08 edge Ham-Kam 2-1—a result that mirrors the current prediction and underscores the hosts’ slight but significant edge. Yet, both teams have shown a taste for the unexpected this season. Sarpsborg 08’s 2-0 away win over Molde (at odds of 6.28) raised eyebrows, while Ham-Kam’s 1-0 triumph over Bodo/Glimt (odds 7.0) proved they’re not to be underestimated, even against the league’s heavyweights.

Tactical Insights: How the Game Might Unfold

• Possession: Expect Sarpsborg 08 to dictate the tempo, projected to hold 68% of the ball compared to Ham-Kam’s 32%.


• Attacking Output: The hosts are forecast to fire off 17 shots (5 on target), while Ham-Kam will likely muster 9 (2 on target).


• Set Pieces: Corners should favor Sarpsborg 08, with a predicted 7 to Ham-Kam’s 3.


• Discipline: Both sides are expected to receive one yellow card apiece, suggesting a competitive but not overly feisty affair.

This statistical dominance in possession and attacking metrics justifies the AI’s high confidence in a home win. Sarpsborg 08’s ability to create chances and control games at home has been a hallmark, while Ham-Kam’s struggles on the road are reflected in both their league position and the betting odds.

Can Ham-Kam Spring Another Surprise?

While the smart money—and the AI—leans heavily toward Sarpsborg 08, Ham-Kam’s history of upsets means they can’t be completely written off. Their shock win over Bodo/Glimt is a reminder that, in the Eliteserien, underdogs occasionally bite. However, the weight of evidence—recent head to head, home advantage, and league trends—suggests the hosts have the upper hand.

Final Sarpsborg 08 vs Ham-Kam Prediction and Best Bets

• Full-time score: Sarpsborg 08 2-1 Ham-Kam


• Half-time score: Sarpsborg 08 1-0 Ham-Kam


• Best bet: Home win (tip: 1) at 1.55 odds (confidence 10.0/10)


• Over 2.5 goals: Worth considering at 1.64 odds (trust level 5.5)

In summary, this Sarpsborg 08 vs Ham-Kam prediction is rooted in both statistical analysis and the tactical realities of the Eliteserien. Sarpsborg 08’s superior possession, attacking output, and home advantage make them strong favorites, but Ham-Kam’s penchant for the improbable ensures this fixture will be watched with interest by fans and bettors alike.