Sassuolo vs Parma Prediction

Sassuolo vs Parma Prediction: Stats, Tactics, and Betting Tips

The Serie A calendar serves up a local derby to kick off 2026, and our Sassuolo vs Parma prediction is here to guide you through the numbers, the narratives, and the best bets. On January 3rd at 14:00 GMT, the Mapei Stadium in Reggio Emilia will host this Emilia-Romagna rivalry—one that’s rarely short on intrigue or talking points. Whether you’re after head to head stats, betting odds, or simply want to know what to expect, we’ve got you covered.

Form Guide and Tactical Overview

Let’s start with the basics. Sassuolo, currently 9th in Serie A, have collected 22 points from 17 matches. Their recent form, however, reads like a rollercoaster: just one win in their last six, with three draws and two defeats. Their last outing—a 1-1 draw at Bologna—showed resilience, but also continued a worrying trend: Sassuolo have now conceded in six straight home games. Defensively, they’re a work in progress, but their possession-based approach (expect around 61% of the ball here) means they’ll look to dictate the tempo and probe for openings.

Parma, sitting 15th with 17 points from 16 matches, arrive with a spring in their step after a 1-0 win over Fiorentina. They’ve found the net in four consecutive away games, but the bigger picture is less rosy: just three wins in their last 20 away fixtures. Parma’s tactical setup is pragmatic—they’re happy to cede possession (expect 39% here), stay compact, and look for moments on the break. Their market value is actually slightly higher than Sassuolo’s (€153.07m vs €148.60m), but on the pitch, it’s been a season of hard graft and narrow margins.

Head to Head: History Favors Parma

• In 12 official meetings, Parma have won five times, Sassuolo three, with four draws.
• Some sources count 14 games since 2.029, with Parma winning six and Sassuolo four.
• Recent meetings have been tight, with neither side dominating.

These teams know each other well, and the head to head record suggests Parma have a slight historical edge. Still, derbies have a habit of rewriting the script.

Key Stats and What They Mean for Bettors

• Total goals: Sassuolo have struggled to keep clean sheets at home, but Parma’s away record is patchy. Our data points to a low-scoring affair.
• Shots: Sassuolo are expected to fire 14 shots (4 on target), Parma 11 (3 on target).
• Corners: 4 for Sassuolo, 2 for Parma—suggesting a game played largely in midfield.
• Yellow cards: Just one each, so don’t expect a card-fest.

Betting Odds and AI Predictions

Bookmakers have Sassuolo as favorites at 2.02 for the home win, with a draw at 3.5 and Parma out at 4.35. Our AI system’s Sassuolo vs Parma prediction leans towards a home win (trust score 3.5/10), but with a healthy dose of caution. The best value, though, might be in the total goals market: under 3.5 goals is tipped with 5.3/10 confidence and odds of 1.3. That fits the narrative—a derby with more tension than fireworks.

• Best tip: Under 3.5 goals (1.3 odds, 5.3/10 confidence)
• 1x2 prediction: Sassuolo win (2.02 odds, 3.5/10 trust)
• Final score prediction: 1-0 to Sassuolo
• Half-time prediction: 0-0

Summary: What to Expect

This Sassuolo vs Parma prediction points to a tight, tactical contest. Sassuolo’s possession game should see them control the ball, but Parma’s recent away scoring run means they can’t be discounted. Still, with both sides struggling for consistency and goals at a premium, the smart money is on a low-scoring home win. Expect a chess match, not a shootout—perfect for those who appreciate the finer points of Italian football.

For those looking to bet, under 3.5 goals stands out as the safest play, while a Sassuolo win offers decent value. As always, keep an eye on the team news and enjoy what promises to be a fascinating Emilia-Romagna derby.