Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia Prediction

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia prediction with odds

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia prediction time in Round 23 of the Bulgarian First League, and the calendar could hardly be kinder to the neutrals (and harsher to the underdog). On 2026-02-28 at 15:30 GMT (17:30 local), Septemvri “host” CSKA at the Vasil Levski National Stadium in Sofia—an arena that often feels like CSKA’s second living room when their fans turn up in numbers.

Match context: a rescue mission meets a revival

Septemvri come into this one with a new voice on the touchline. Hristo Arangelov was appointed on February 12, 2026 after Stamen Belchev stepped down, and he arrives with assistant Marian Hristov to lead what is openly being treated as a “stay up” project. The message has been simple: defend better, suffer together, and turn good training into points.

Across the technical area stands a very different mood. Under Hristo Yanev (in charge since September 2025), CSKA Sofia have looked steady, confident, and—most importantly for bettors—reliable. They’ve built a strong run of results inside Sofia, and they arrive with the attitude of a team that expects to win, even if it’s not always pretty.

Likely approach: compact Septemvri, mature CSKA

Arangelov’s Septemvri are expected to prioritize shape first. A 4-2-3-1 or even a 5.1-1 would make sense: keep the central lanes crowded, accept long spells without the ball, and try to steal moments on the break.

CSKA under Yanev have grown more “adult” in how they manage games. The pattern has often been controlled wins—think 1-0 or 2-0—built on disciplined defending and a few high-quality attacks. Yanev has kept his media comments short, preferring the pitch to do the talking, and the team has followed that script: calm, focused, and hard to unsettle.

Players to watch (and a small yellow-card warning)

Septemvri’s hope rests on doing a lot with a little. Their main threat is Bertrand Fourrier, already on 10 goals this season. If Septemvri create one big chance, he’s usually the reason. Behind him, Galin Ivanov remains the key creator with 4 assists, but he’s also walking a disciplinary tightrope—one more booking and he risks a suspension. Fourrier is in the same situation, which is the football version of trying to carry groceries while balancing a glass of water.

For CSKA, the form players have names and momentum. Alejandro Piedrahita has been praised as an “uncut diamond” after a decisive moment against Slavia Sofia, while Leandro Godoy matches Fourrier’s output with 10 goals for the club. In midfield, Maks Ebong and Isaac Solet have brought the power and quick transitions that fit Yanev’s plan.

Recent form and head to head notes

Septemvri’s results have swung from useful to worrying. They beat Montana 1-0 on February 16, but also took a 0-3 loss to Dobrudzha earlier in the month—exactly the kind of scoreline that forces a coach to add extra defending drills. Still, they’ve shown they can land a punch: that 0-1 away win vs Arda Kardzhali on 2025-10-20 came at big odds (6.88), a reminder that surprises do happen.

The head to head trend leans heavily CSKA. In their most recent H2H (2025-03-29), CSKA won 0-1. Historically, CSKA have taken the majority of recent meetings, and even at a “neutral-ish” venue like the National Stadium, the crowd often tilts their way.

• Venue note: Septemvri are listed as home, but the setting can feel closer to a CSKA-friendly stage.
• Squad value gap: Septemvri €5.39m vs CSKA €21.30m—rarely the full story, but usually not irrelevant.
• CSKA team news: Defender Dimitar Nikolov has been out with knee ligament damage and is targeting a return around Feb 28.

Betting odds snapshot

The betting odds show a clear favorite, and they are not being shy about it:

• Home win: 10.0
• Draw: 5.1
• Away win: 1.36

That pricing fits the wider story: CSKA’s strong league form under Yanev versus a Septemvri side still adjusting to a new staff and fighting for survival.

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia prediction: AI tips and projected flow

Now to the numbers that shape our Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia prediction. Both NerdyTips and our 1X2 model point in the same direction: the away win. The trust level is solid rather than perfect, which is a polite way of saying: football can be chaotic, but the data prefers the simpler outcome.

Main 1X2 pick

• Best tip (NerdyTips): 2 (CSKA Sofia to win)
• Trust rating: 5.7/10
• Odds: 1.36
• AI 1X2 recommendation: 2
• Trust level: 5.8
• Odds: 1.36

Total goals angle

CSKA’s “mature” win pattern matters here. When a favorite is comfortable controlling a match without forcing a shootout, total goals often stay moderate.

• AI pick: Under 3.5 goals
• Confidence: 3.7
• Odds: 1.41

Predicted match stats (and what they suggest)

The projected game script is one-way traffic with Septemvri trying to survive long phases without possession.

• Possession: Septemvri 41% vs CSKA 59%
• Shots: Septemvri 5 vs CSKA 18
• Shots on target: Septemvri 1 vs CSKA 6
• Corners: Septemvri 2 vs CSKA 7 (total 9)
• Yellow cards: Septemvri 2 vs CSKA 1

If those numbers land anywhere close, they support the away win and also explain why Under 3.5 is attractive: CSKA create volume, but the model doesn’t expect a goal-fest—more like steady pressure until the dam cracks.

Correct score lean and halftime read

• AI correct score: 0:2
• Halftime score prediction: 0:1

That fits the tactical picture: Septemvri sit deep early, CSKA find one before the break, and the second goal arrives once spaces open or fatigue shows. It’s not glamorous, but it’s the kind of result title-chasing teams collect.

Final betting preview verdict

Our Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia prediction is aligned with the market and the match context: CSKA’s stronger squad, better form, and likely crowd comfort at the National Stadium point to an away win. Septemvri’s best route is a low-block and a moment from Fourrier, but the projected shot and possession gap suggests they may spend most of the afternoon defending—an activity that rarely gets easier after the 70th minute.

• Best bet: CSKA Sofia to win (2) @ 1.36
• Strong side pick: Under 3.5 total goals @ 1.41
• Lean scoreline: 0-2 (HT 0-1)