Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Preview
When Sergipe vs Penedense face off at Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista, expect a game that leans more toward grit than glamour. Our Sergipe vs Penedense prediction suggests a low-scoring affair, with bookmakers favoring the hosts at 1.70 odds—but don’t expect fireworks. If goals were gold, this fixture might not make you rich. Instead, tactical discipline and defensive resilience should dominate, making bets like No Goal (NG) and under 2.5 goals particularly enticing.
Home advantage matters in Serie D, where 37.1% of games end in home wins compared to just 18.7% for away sides. Sergipe’s 1.70 odds reflect this trend, but Penedense’s recent 0-0 draw as 6.0 underdogs against Jequie proves they’re no pushovers. Here’s what the numbers tell us:
The betting odds paint a clear picture: this won’t be a goal-fest. Our top recommendation—NG (No Goal) at 1.87—is backed by the fact both teams score just 35.1% of the time in Serie D. Penedense’s defensive organization, fresh off that stalemate against Jequie, reinforces this bet. Meanwhile, the under 2.5 goals market (1.84) feels almost inevitable given the league’s tendency toward cagey games.
While there’s limited head-to-head history between these two, their styles suggest a tactical stalemate. Sergipe will rely on home comfort, but Penedense’s compact shape could frustrate them. Consider:
This Sergipe vs Penedense prediction isn’t about flair—it’s about fundamentals. The stats scream caution, and the betting odds reflect that. For value, look at:
In a league where margins are slim, this game should follow the script. Whether you’re betting or just watching, keep expectations low—and your wagers smarter.
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NG -115
At least one team is not expected to score with odds of -1151 -147
Sergipe is expected to win with odds of -143Under 2.5 -119
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -115
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U4.5 -323
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1:0
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1
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0
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0
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 Penedense |
18-May-25
0:1
| Sergipe  |
Recent Matches of Sergipe| 24 Jan | W |
Falcon.
|
0:2
| Sergipe.
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Recent Matches of Penedense
| 25 Jan | D |  Coruripe. |
1:1 |
Penedense. |
Brazil - Serie D| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
ASA | 14 | 27-8 | 31 |
| 2 |
Lagarto | 14 | 20-16 | 23 |
| 3 |
Sergipe | 14 | 16-10 | 22 |
| 4 |
Juazeirense | 14 | 12-15 | 22 |
| 5 |
União | 14 | 14-16 | 19 |
| 6 |
Jequié | 14 | 15-16 | 16 |
| 7 |
Barcelona BA | 14 | 9-20 | 11 |
| 8 |
Penedense | 14 | 5-17 | 8 |
