Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Brazil
Sertaozinho
-
Monte Azul
€25.00Th.
Preview
Under the dim glow of Estádio Municipal Frederico Dalmazo’s floodlights, Sertaozinho and Monte Azul will lock horns in a Paulista - A3 fixture that promises tension, if not fireworks. The odds whisper of a tight contest—home win (2.48), draw (2.95), away win (2.78)—but dig deeper, and the numbers tell a story of cautious football, where goals come grudgingly and surprises lurk in the shadows.
If the league’s stats are a roadmap, this won’t be a joyride for thrill-seekers. Only 31.9% of matches here erupt beyond 2.5 goals, and our AI’s top pick—under 2.5 goals at 1.44 odds—leans into that trend. Monte Azul’s recent 4-2 demolition of XV de Piracicaba (a result priced at a laughable 5.25) feels like an outlier, the kind of result that makes you check your glasses. But here’s the rub: such chaos is the exception, not the rule. More often, these sides mirror the league’s 55.3% of games that hover around 1.5 goals—a stat that suits Sertaozinho’s pragmatic style.
Monte Azul’s Jekyll-and-Hyde act is fascinating—capable of scoring four one week, then grinding out a 0-0 the next. Yet, with both teams scoring in just 39.3% of Paulista - A3 games, the smarter bet is on a 1X double chance (1.38 odds), reflecting Sertaozinho’s home grit and the league’s 40.5% home-win rate. The predicted 1-0 scoreline (HT 0-0) hints at a game decided by a single moment—a set-piece, a defensive lapse, or perhaps a referee’s leniency (with no assigned official yet, could VAR become the star?).
Let’s not ignore Monte Azul’s penchant for defiance. That 4-2 win wasn’t just a fluke; it was a middle finger to logic. But history suggests lightning rarely strikes twice. Only 15.6% of league games blast past 3.5 goals, and Sertaozinho’s backline—stung by past slips—will prioritize discipline over daring. The AI’s 5.0/10 confidence in under 2.5 goals isn’t a roaring endorsement, but it’s the smart play in a match where ‘cagey’ feels likelier than ‘chaotic.’
For neutrals, this might not be a classic. But for bettors? It’s a puzzle wrapped in Paulista pragmatism. Sertaozinho’s home edge, Monte Azul’s wild streaks, and a league allergic to goal gluts all point to a low-scoring grind. If you’re feeling bold, a punt on a goalless first half (HT 0-0) could pay dividends. Either way, keep the antacids handy—this one’s for the purists.
Read More
U2.5 -227
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -2271X -263
Sertaozinho to win or drawUnder 2.5 -227
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -161
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U3.5 -137
Home win/draw and under 3.5 goals
1:0
|
|
1
-
2
-
2
|
|
 Monte Azul |
12-Apr-25
1:1
| Sertaozinho  |
| Sertaozinho |
09-Apr-25
3:1
| Monte Azul |
| Monte Azul |
05-Mar-25
1:1
| Sertaozinho |
| Monte Azul |
07-Mar-21
3:2
| Sertaozinho |
Recent Matches of Sertaozinho| 14 Jan |
Piracicaba.
|
-
| Sertaozinho.
| |
| 10 Jan | D |
Sertaozinho.
|
0:0
| Taubate.
|
Recent Matches of Monte Azul
| 14 Jan |  Santo Andre. |
- |
Monte Azul. | |
| 11 Jan | D | Monte Azul. |
1:1 |
Inter L. |
Brazil - Paulista - A3| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Monte Azul | 15 | 27-14 | 30 |
| 2 |
Marília | 15 | 24-17 | 28 |
| 3 |
Desportivo Bra | 15 | 19-16 | 25 |
| 4 |
Sertãozinho | 15 | 14-8 | 25 |
| 5 |
Catanduva | 15 | 17-17 | 24 |
| 6 |
Rio Branco SP | 15 | 25-15 | 23 |
| 7 |
União São Jo | 15 | 18-13 | 22 |
| 8 |
Itapirense | 15 | 14-13 | 20 |
| 9 |
Rio Preto | 15 | 12-14 | 20 |
| 10 |
USAC | 15 | 15-22 | 17 |
| 11 |
XV de Jau | 15 | 9-12 | 17 |
| 12 |
Francana | 15 | 17-19 | 17 |
| 13 |
EC São Bernar | 15 | 11-15 | 16 |
| 14 |
Bandeirante SP | 15 | 12-20 | 15 |
| 15 |
EC Lemense | 15 | 12-21 | 13 |
| 16 |
Comercial | 15 | 8-18 | 11 |
