Sevilla vs Alaves Prediction

Sevilla vs Alaves prediction: goals likely in Seville

Our Sevilla vs Alaves prediction for Saturday, 14 February 2026 (17:30 GMT) is shaped by a simple truth: these two are separated by a single point and both look a little too open for comfort. They meet at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán on Matchday 24, in that awkward part of the table where one good week brings relief and one bad week brings panic.

Context, pressure, and why this game feels “big”

Sevilla come in sitting 15th on 24 points, still searching for rhythm under Matías Almeyda. A rescheduled 1-1 with Girona on 8 February (after severe weather) gave them something to build on, but it also squeezed their recovery time. Before that, they were thumped 4-1 by Mallorca, and the most worrying stat is defensive: Sevilla have conceded in seven straight matches. It’s hard to talk about control when you’re always one moment away from needing another goal.

Alavés are 10th with 25 points, and Eduardo “Chacho” Coudet’s side have had their own mood swings: a 0-1 home loss to Getafe and a painful 2-3 Copa del Rey exit to Real Sociedad. Still, they’ve looked lively away from home lately, including a 2-1 win at Espanyol. This is the sort of travel form that makes the home crowd slightly nervous after one sloppy pass.

Team news and the human subplots

Sevilla’s absences matter. Joaquín Martínez (“Oso”) is out for a few weeks with a calf injury, while Marcao is sidelined with a broken foot until late April. There are also doubts over Adnan Januzaj, Ruben Vargas, and César Azpilicueta as they try to shake off muscle issues. As for Alfon, despite the talk, he’s no longer part of this story—he went on loan to Villarreal late January and is injured there.

Alavés have their own quirks: Facundo Garcés remains unavailable due to a long suspension linked to documentation problems, while Carlos Protesoni and Ville Koski are being assessed. The intriguing addition is Ibrahim Diabaté, presented on 9 February—an ex-Sevilla Atlético striker who could debut against familiar faces if he’s deemed ready.

Tactics: River Plate minds, similar shapes, different dangers

There’s a nice coaching storyline here: Almeyda and Coudet go back to their River Plate days, and both often lean into a 4-2-3-1 built on intensity and midfield control. Sevilla may again look toward the physical presence of Akor Adams (6 league goals) and hope that Peque or Suso can add the kind of final pass their crossing numbers haven’t consistently delivered. Alavés, meanwhile, are at their best when they turn defence into attack quickly—Carlos Vicente and Lucas Boyé (5 goals each) are the headline threats, with Carles Aleñá knitting the transitions together.

Head to head: recent twists, old habits

The head to head picture is mixed. The last league meeting on 20 April 2025 ended 1-1, and Alavés have irritated Sevilla recently enough to earn “bogey team” status in some circles. They even knocked Sevilla out of the Copa del Rey in December 2025 (1-0). Yet the Pizjuán has historically leaned Sevilla’s way, and that home comfort still counts for something when the crowd senses a chance to climb away from trouble.

NerdyTips angles: betting odds, totals, and score call

Let’s get practical. The market has Sevilla as narrow favourites: home win betting odds 2.2, draw 3.2, away win 3.95. That tracks with the squad-value gap (€131.60m vs €64.00m), but it doesn’t erase the fact that Sevilla keep conceding and Alavés travel with intent.

• Best wager (AI): Over 1.5 total goals at 1.5 odds (confidence 4.1/10).
• 1X2 lean (AI): 1X at 1.29 odds (confidence 2.0/10).
• Totals call (AI): Over 1.5 again, confidence 4.2/10 at 1.5 odds.

That “over 1.5” preference makes sense when you connect the dots: Sevilla’s seven-game run of conceding meets an Alavés side that’s comfortable breaking forward, plus both managers favour a tempo that creates transitions. Even if one team starts cautiously, the first goal can quickly turn this into a game of replies rather than control.

Correct score thoughts

Our AI goes bold with a 2-2 full-time and 1-1 at half-time. It’s not hard to picture: Sevilla’s talent often produces chances at home, but their current defensive fragility invites a response. So, for a second mention of the key phrase, the Sevilla vs Alaves prediction here is: Sevilla avoid defeat, and the total goals line clears two without too much drama.