Sevilla vs Girona Prediction

Sevilla vs Girona prediction: pressure points and value angles

The Sevilla vs Girona prediction for Saturday, 2026-02-07 (17:30 GMT) feels less like a party and more like a careful walk on wet tiles: both sides are in the bottom half and want daylight from the relegation line. Girona arrive 12th with 25 points, Sevilla are 14th with 24, and the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán will treat every tackle like a referendum on survival.

Match setting, stakes, and recent storylines

Sevilla under Matías Almeyda have been hard to read. One week they look fragile (that 4–1 loss to Mallorca on Feb 2), the next they find a narrow path to three points (2–1 vs Athletic Bilbao on Jan 24). Girona, coached by Míchel, had put together a four-game unbeaten run before a 1–0 slip at Real Oviedo, and the manager’s message was simple: nice build-up, not enough end product.

• Date & time: 2026-02-07, 17:30 GMT
• Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Seville
• Table context: Girona 12th (25), Sevilla 14th (24)

Tactics: what each coach is trying to fix

Almeyda has leaned toward a 3-5-2, aiming to win the midfield with Sow and Agoumé and then release runners early. The issue is availability: suspensions to Gudelj and Marcão (with Marcão also carrying a longer-term problem) reduce the “adult” options in the back line, pushing younger names like Kike Salas and Carmona into bigger minutes. Sevilla can still score, but their defensive structure has looked like it’s missing a few screws.

Girona will stay loyal to Míchel’s possession-first approach. Creativity is not the problem when Tsygankov and Bryan Gil are fit enough to influence games; the problem is turning territory into clear chances. The goalkeeper situation also matters: Ter Stegen’s surprise loan was a major talking point, and his knee injury after two matches means Juan Carlos Martín or Gazzaniga should start. That’s not automatically bad news, but it does remove a safety net.

Players, absences, and the head to head note

Sevilla’s main finisher has been Akor Adams (6 league goals), with Isaac Romero and Juanlu important for movement and second balls. Girona’s top scorer is Vanat (7), and he’ll fancy opportunities if Sevilla’s reshuffled defence leaves gaps. The head to head also leans Girona recently: they won 2–0 on 2024-09-01, and across the last five meetings Girona have a slight edge (3 wins to Sevilla’s 2). Still, this season has been full of plot twists—Sevilla’s 4–1 shock win over Barcelona at odds of 5.8, and Girona holding Real Madrid 1–1 with odds around 7.5, are reminders that football does not read the script.

Sevilla vs Girona prediction: odds, tips, and expected match stats

The core market is tight: betting odds show Sevilla 2.15, Draw 3.4, Girona 3.7. Our numbers point to Sevilla having a bit more of the ball (54% vs 46%) and more attempts (14 shots vs 9), but Girona can still be the sharper knife—especially if Sevilla’s defensive absences bite at key moments.

• AI best tip: Under 3.5 total goals (odds 1.32), trust 4.6/10
• Under/Over read: Under 3.5 total goals most likely (odds 1.32), trust 4.7/10
• 1X2 lean: X2 (Girona or Draw) at 1.75, trust 2.0/10

Why the under? The game profile suggests controlled phases and selective risk. Even with 5 vs 3 on-target shots projected, that doesn’t scream goal-fest—more like “finish your dinner or go hungry.” Corners are projected at 8 total (5–3), and cards at a manageable 3 total (2–1), which fits a tense but not chaotic match rhythm.

Correct score call

Our Sevilla vs Girona prediction on the scoreline is 1–2, with 1–1 at half-time. That aligns with Sevilla’s expected possession edge but Girona’s ability to land the cleaner punches. It’s a match where “small moments” is not a cliché—it’s the whole story.