Match Prediction
Match Prediction
World
Preview
The Shkendija vs Samsunspor prediction for Thursday, 19 February 2026 (kickoff 20:00 GMT) starts with one simple truth: this first-leg story has two very different moods. Shkendija arrive with calm belief and a packed national stadium behind them, while Samsunspor fly in with a fresh manager and a squad searching for a reset.
This is the first competitive meeting between the sides, and it lands in Skopje at the Toše Proeski Arena rather than Shkendija’s usual base in Tetovo. That move matters: a bigger pitch, a bigger crowd, and a bigger night for a club that has already made history by reaching this stage for North Macedonia.
Samsunspor’s week has been loud. Thomas Reis was dismissed on February 14 after a rough run that included a 3-1 loss to Antalyaspor and a 3-0 defeat to Trabzonspor. A principle agreement to bring in Thorsten Fink means the Turkish side may show up with new instructions, but also with the usual “new coach” uncertainty—especially in a European away leg.
Jeton Beqiri’s Shkendija are expected to keep continuity in a compact 5.7-3-1. The plan is familiar: stay tight without the ball, then spring forward quickly through the creators. Liridon Latifi brings the end product, while Ronaldo Webster is often the connector who makes counters look cleaner than they should.
For Samsunspor, the shape is harder to pin down. Thorsten Fink could choose a cautious 4-1.42-1 (or slide into 5.7-3-1) to stop the recent bleeding. The problem is in the details: Antoine Makoumbou’s suspension removes a natural midfield plug, and several absences limit the options for rotation and control.
One more subplot: money talks, but it does not always decide legs like this. Samsunspor’s market value (€56.78m) dwarfs Shkendija’s (€6.82m), yet Shkendija have already shown they can ignore price tags—just ask FCSB, who learned that lesson in a 1-2 upset on 30 July 2025 when Shkendija were priced at 10.25 to win away.
Now to the numbers that matter for bettors. The 1X2 market leans away: home win 5.7, draw 3.75, away win 1.75. Our Shkendija vs Samsunspor prediction data also points to caution on picking a straight winner, which fits a first leg where Samsunspor may prioritize stability and Shkendija may prioritize belief.
There’s a logical relationship between these angles. X2 comes with low trust because Samsunspor’s “new coach bounce” is hard to model and their missing pieces reduce predictability. But the goals angle is more stable: Shkendija’s home ambition plus Samsunspor’s recent defensive wobble can still create chances even if the away side plays more cautiously than usual.
If you like narratives that match the data, consider this: Samsunspor recently held Fenerbahçe to a shocking 0-0 when big odds suggested otherwise (5.05 on the home side). That shows they can dig in. But it also hints at volatility—exactly why the safer route may be goals over a winner in the betting tips list.
Recommended play: Over 1.5 goals at 1.42. It does not need a track meet—just two moments of quality, or one moment of chaos, which European nights in Skopje tend to provide.
Head to head does not help here (this is the first meeting), so let tactics, team news, and market behavior do the talking. And they are all whispering the same thing: expect a busy scoreboard, even if the tie itself stays wide open.
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O1.5 -238
At least 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -238X2 -556
Samsunspor to win or drawOver 1.5 -238
At least 2 goals will be scored in the matchYes 115
Both teams are expected to scoreX2&O1.5 -167
Away win/draw and over 1.5 goals
2:2
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Recent Matches of Shkendija| 05 Mar |
Vardar
| - |
Shkendija
| - | |
| 02 Mar | W |
Shkendija
| 2 |
Pelister
| 1 |
| 26 Feb | L |
Samsunspor
| 4 |
Shkendija
| 0 |
| 22 Feb | W |
Sileks
| 1 |
Shkendija
| 2 |
| 19 Feb | L |
Shkendija
| 0 |
Samsunspor
| 1 |
| 14 Feb | W |
Tikves
| 1 |
Shkendija
| 4 |
| 10 Feb | W |
Shkendija
| 2 |
Struga
| 0 |
| 01 Feb | D |
Ordabasy
| 1 |
Shkendija
| 1 |
| 28 Jan | W |
FK Sarajevo
| 2 |
Shkendija
| 3 |
| 24 Jan | W |
Podbrezova
| 1 |
Shkendija
| 2 |
Recent Matches of Samsunspor
| 05 Mar |  Antalyaspor |
- |  Samsunspor |
- | |
| 01 Mar | D | Samsunspor |
0 |  Gaziantep FK |
0 |
| 26 Feb | W | Samsunspor |
4 |  Shkendija |
0 |
| 22 Feb | D |  Karagumruk |
0 | Samsunspor |
0 |
| 19 Feb | W | Shkendija |
0 | Samsunspor |
1 |
| 13 Feb | L | Antalyaspor |
3 | Samsunspor |
1 |
| 07 Feb | L | Samsunspor |
0 |  Trabzonspor |
3 |
| 03 Feb | W | Samsunspor |
2 |  Bodrumspor |
0 |
| 30 Jan | W |  Kasimpasa |
0 | Samsunspor |
1 |
| 24 Jan | D | Samsunspor |
0 |  Kocaelispor |
0 |
World - UEFA Europa Conference League| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Strasbourg | 6 | 11-5 | 16 |
| 2 |
Raków | 6 | 9-2 | 14 |
| 3 |
AEK Athens FC | 6 | 14-7 | 13 |
| 4 |
Sparta Praha | 6 | 10-3 | 13 |
| 5 |
Rayo Vallecano | 6 | 13-7 | 13 |
| 6 |
Shakhtar | 6 | 10-5 | 13 |
| 7 |
FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 7-3 | 13 |
| 8 |
AEK Larnaca | 6 | 7-1 | 12 |
| 9 |
Lausanne | 6 | 6-3 | 11 |
| 10 |
Crystal Palace | 6 | 11-6 | 10 |
| 11 |
Lech Poznan | 6 | 12-8 | 10 |
| 12 |
Samsunspor | 6 | 10-6 | 10 |
| 13 |
Celje | 6 | 8-7 | 10 |
| 14 |
AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 7-7 | 10 |
| 15 |
Fiorentina | 6 | 8-5 | 9 |
| 16 |
HNK Rijeka | 6 | 5-2 | 9 |
| 17 |
Jagiellonia | 6 | 5-4 | 9 |
| 18 |
Omonia Nicosia | 6 | 5-4 | 8 |
| 19 |
FC Noah | 6 | 6-7 | 8 |
| 20 |
Drita | 6 | 4-8 | 8 |
| 21 |
KuPS | 6 | 6-5 | 7 |
| 22 |
Shkendija | 6 | 4-5 | 7 |
| 23 |
Zrinjski | 6 | 8-10 | 7 |
| 24 |
Sigma Olomouc | 6 | 7-9 | 7 |
| 25 |
Universitatea | 6 | 6-8 | 7 |
| 26 |
Lincoln Red Imps | 6 | 7-15 | 7 |
| 27 |
Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 9-9 | 6 |
| 28 |
Legia Warszawa | 6 | 8-8 | 6 |
| 29 |
Slovan | 6 | 5-9 | 6 |
| 30 |
Breidablik | 6 | 6-11 | 5 |
| 31 |
Shamrock | 6 | 7-13 | 4 |
| 32 |
BK Hacken | 6 | 5-8 | 3 |
| 33 |
Hamrun | 6 | 4-11 | 3 |
| 34 |
Shelbourne | 6 | 0-7 | 2 |
| 35 |
Aberdeen | 6 | 3-14 | 2 |
| 36 |
Rapid Vienna | 6 | 3-14 | 1 |
