Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Preview
Spezia vs Entella prediction pieces rarely need extra drama, but this one has it anyway: a Ligurian derby, a tight table, and two teams staring at the relegation play-off zone. Spezia and Virtus Entella meet on Saturday, 7 February 2026 (18:30 GMT) at the Stadio Alberto Picco for Matchday 23, and it feels less like a normal league game and more like a winter exam you cannot retake.
The standings underline the tension. Entella sit 16th with 21 points from 22 matches, Spezia are 17th with 20. Both are close enough to safety to dream, and close enough to danger to panic. Entella’s recent sequence (D-L-D-W-L) sums up their season: capable, but hard to trust week to week. Spezia arrive bruised by a 1-0 loss to Sampdoria, although they did take a vital 1-0 win over Avellino in late January, a reminder that they can still win ugly when the moment demands it.
Spezia’s squad management has been shaped by absences and January movement. Goalkeeper Mouhamadou Sarr remains out with a broken ankle (expected back in April). Filippo Bandinelli is a major doubt after a recurring issue returned, while Szymon Żurkowski is still sidelined long term with knee trouble. At the back, Nicolò Bertola serves a one-match ban, and Aleš Matějů has been dealing with hamstring discomfort.
The market did not wait: Spezia added Alessandro Bellemo and striker Laurs Skjellerup before the window closed on 2 February. They also sold Edoardo Soleri to Sampdoria, and Rachid Kouda returned to Parma.
Entella have fewer headline injuries, but Antonio Boccadamo is unavailable. A small betting detail to watch: Andrea Franzoni and Marco Dalla Vecchia are both one yellow card from suspension, which can affect how hard they press in midfield. Entella strengthened with Leonardo Benedetti and L. Cuppone, while D. Ankeye returned to Genoa after his loan ended.
Roberto Donadoni’s Spezia have been trying to rediscover basic habits: fight for second balls, protect the box, and stop giving the ball away cheaply. Donadoni has spoken about poor possession management, and injuries have pushed younger options such as Christian Comotto and Alessandro Romano closer to the spotlight. Expect a compact setup designed to control territory rather than play with constant risk.
Andrea Chiappella’s Entella lean into enthusiasm and defensive compactness. Away from home they have struggled badly, still without an away win this season, so the plan often becomes: stay alive, then counter through Tommaso Fumagalli when space appears.
The betting odds reflect a cautious market: Spezia win 2.25, draw 3.15, Entella win 4.15. That price range says “edge to Spezia, but don’t assume comfort.” It matches the season stories too: Spezia have produced gritty surprises like the 2-2 away draw at Parma on 24 September 2.25 despite long odds, while Entella did something similar with a 1-1 at Cagliari on 16 August 2.25.
Why the conservative 1X stands out: Spezia’s historical head to head advantage, Entella’s away drought, and the expected game texture all point the same way. Our model projects Spezia to have 54% possession, with shot counts around 13.150 and on-target shots just 3.15. That is not the profile of a wild scoreline; it is the profile of a tense, stop-start derby.
The Spezia vs Entella prediction also leans under 2.5 total goals because the numbers suggest few clean chances: 10 corners (6-4) but limited accuracy, plus a balanced card expectation (2 yellows each) that hints at control rather than chaos. Market values (€27.95m vs €12.18m) give Spezia more depth, yet not necessarily more goals.
Final call: Spezia 1-0 Entella, with 0-0 at half-time. It reads like a Picco night where patience wins, and one moment decides the points.
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1X -323
Spezia to win or draw with odds of -3231 125
Spezia is expected to win with odds of 125Under 2.5 -154
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -108
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U4.5 -213
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
0:0
1:0
|
|
4
-
3
-
0
|
|
 Entella |
08-Dec-25
0:1
| Spezia  |
| Spezia |
27-Jul-20
0:0
| Entella |
| Entella |
26-Dec-19
0:0
| Spezia |
| Entella |
05-Feb-18
0:1
| Spezia |
| Spezia |
09-Sep-17
2:1
| Entella |
| Spezia |
22-Apr-17
2:0
| Entella |
| Entella |
25-Nov-16
1:1
| Spezia |
Recent Matches of Spezia| 15 Feb |
Spezia.
|
-
| Frosinone.
| |
| 07 Feb | D |
Spezia.
|
1:1
| Entella.
|
| 31 Jan | L |
Sampdoria.
|
1:0
| Spezia.
|
| 24 Jan | W |
Spezia.
|
1:0
| Avellino.
|
| 18 Jan | L |
Palermo.
|
1:0
| Spezia.
|
| 10 Jan | L |
Sudtirol.
|
2:1
| Spezia.
|
| 27 Dec | W |
Spezia.
|
2:1
| Pescara.
|
| 20 Dec | L |
Frosinone.
|
2:1
| Spezia.
|
| 13 Dec | L |
Spezia.
|
0:2
| Modena.
|
| 08 Dec | W |
Entella.
|
0:1
| Spezia.
|
Recent Matches of Entella
| 14 Feb |  Palermo. |
- |
Entella. | |
| 10 Feb | W | Entella. |
3:1 |
Cesena. |
| 07 Feb | D | Spezia. |
1:1 |
Entella. |
| 31 Jan | D | Entella. |
1:1 |
Frosinone. |
| 24 Jan | L |  Juve Stabi. |
1:0 |
Entella. |
| 16 Jan | D |  Sampdoria. |
1:1 |
Entella. |
| 10 Jan | W | Entella. |
1:0 |
Monza. |
| 27 Dec | L |  Venezia. |
1:0 |
Entella. |
| 21 Dec | D | Entella. |
1:1 |
Sudtirol. |
| 14 Dec | L |  Carrarese. |
3:1 |
Entella. |
Italy - Serie B| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Venezia | 24 | 46-22 | 50 |
| 2 |
Monza | 23 | 36-19 | 47 |
| 3 |
Frosinone | 23 | 41-21 | 46 |
| 4 |
Palermo | 24 | 39-19 | 45 |
| 5 |
Catanzaro | 24 | 32-26 | 38 |
| 6 |
Modena | 24 | 31-19 | 37 |
| 7 |
Cesena | 24 | 32-30 | 37 |
| 8 |
Juve Stabia | 23 | 27-26 | 35 |
| 9 |
Carrarese | 24 | 31-33 | 30 |
| 10 |
Sudtirol | 23 | 24-23 | 29 |
| 11 |
Padova | 24 | 25-30 | 29 |
| 12 |
Empoli | 23 | 28-31 | 28 |
| 13 |
Avellino | 23 | 28-37 | 28 |
| 14 |
Sampdoria | 24 | 26-32 | 26 |
| 15 |
Virtus Entella | 24 | 23-31 | 25 |
| 16 |
Reggiana | 24 | 26-34 | 24 |
| 17 |
Mantova | 24 | 24-38 | 23 |
| 18 |
Spezia | 23 | 20-30 | 21 |
| 19 |
Bari | 23 | 19-36 | 20 |
| 20 |
Pescara | 24 | 27-48 | 15 |
