Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Portugal
Preview
The Primeira Liga serves up a classic tale of the titan versus the underdog this Friday night as Sporting CP host Casa Pia at the Estádio José Alvalade. Our Sporting CP vs Casa Pia prediction must navigate a landscape defined by starkly different ambitions, fresh managerial ideas, and a mountain of compelling statistics. While the Lions roar at the top, the Geese are fighting for survival, making this 20:15 GMT kickoff a fascinating study in contrasts.
This match is intriguingly poised as a battle of new ideas. Sporting's Rui Borges, now over a year into his tenure, is steadily imprinting his philosophy, moving the team towards a more controlled 4-4-2 system. This shift aims to solidify midfield dominance, a scary prospect for any visitor. However, his plans are hampered by a daunting injury list, missing key figures like Pedro Gonçalves, Nuno Santos, and Ousmane Diomande.
Across the technical area, Álvaro Pacheco will be scribbling notes for his very first game in charge of Casa Pia. Appointed just days ago, his immediate task is organizational survival. His promised proactive approach will face its ultimate test in Lisbon. Casa Pia's own squad is depleted, missing influential players like Kiki Silva, which further tilts the scale.
The recent trajectory of both teams couldn't be more different. Sporting are a fortress at home, scoring nearly five goals a game on average in their last three league outings at Alvalade without conceding. They sit comfortably second, playing with confidence and firepower.
Casa Pia, languishing in 15th, have found wins painfully scarce, especially on their travels. Their spirit, however, should not be underestimated. Their recent head to head record against Sporting is poor, but they have a knack for surprising the big boys, as shown by their gritty draw with Benfica earlier this season. Sporting's own history, like that famous draw with Manchester City years ago, reminds us that football loves an upset.
Crunching all this data—the form, the stats, the squad values (a staggering €463m vs €28m)—our analytical models paint a very clear picture. The numbers suggest a match dominated by the men in green and white.
The expected possession stats alone tell a story: a predicted 70% for Sporting against 30% for Casa Pia. This control should translate into a barrage of attempts, with forecasts of 17 total shots for the hosts, 8 of them on target, compared to just 5 and 1 respectively for the visitors. The corner count and even the yellow card prediction (more for the battling away side) all support the narrative of one team camped in the opposition's half.
So, where does this lead our final Sporting CP vs Casa Pia prediction? The confidence is remarkably high. Our core 1.22 tip is a home win (1) with maximum trust. The value, however, might lie in the goal markets. Our top tip is for Sporting to score at least two goals (HS2+), which aligns perfectly with their explosive home form and Casa Pia's defensive struggles on the road.
Furthermore, the AI leans towards an entertaining game, suggesting over 2.5 total goals is a strong possibility. When you piece it all together—the expected shots, the possession, the historical data—a clear projected outcome emerges.
We anticipate Sporting CP controlling the tempo from the outset, likely leading 1-0 at the break before their pressure tells in the second half. The final whistle, we predict, will blow on a 3-1 victory for Sporting CP. While Casa Pia might show the fight that earned them a draw at Benfica and possibly grab a consolation, the Lions' quality and home advantage should prove far too much in this fixture.
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Sporting CP has upcoming match in Europe
HS2+ -323
Sporting CP is expected to score at least 2 goals with odds of -3231 -455
Sporting CP is expected to win with odds of -455Over 2.5 -182
At least 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes 135
Both teams are expected to score
1:0
3:1
|
|
8
-
0
-
0
|
|
 Casa Pia |
08-Aug-25
0:2
| Sporting CP  |
| Casa Pia |
09-Mar-25
1:3
| Sporting CP |
| Sporting CP |
05-Oct-24
2:0
| Casa Pia |
| Sporting CP |
29-Jan-24
8:0
| Casa Pia |
| Casa Pia |
18-Aug-23
1:2
| Sporting CP |
| Casa Pia |
09-Apr-23
3:4
| Sporting CP |
| Sporting CP |
22-Oct-22
3:1
| Casa Pia |
| Casa Pia |
22-Dec-21
1:2
| Sporting CP |
Recent Matches of Sporting CP| 01 Feb |
Sporting C.
|
-
| Nacional.
| |
| 24 Jan | W |
Arouca.
|
1:2
| Sporting C.
|
| 20 Jan | W |
Sporting C.
|
2:1
| PSG.
|
| 16 Jan | W |
Sporting C.
|
3:0
| Casa Pia.
|
| 06 Jan | L |
Sporting C.
|
1:2
| Guimaraes.
|
| 02 Jan | D |
Gil Vicent.
|
1:1
| Sporting C.
|
| 28 Dec | W |
Sporting C.
|
4:0
| Rio Ave.
|
| 23 Dec | W |
Guimaraes.
|
1:4
| Sporting C.
|
| 18 Dec | W |
Santa Clar.
|
2:3
| Sporting C.
|
| 13 Dec | W |
Sporting C.
|
6:0
| AFS.
|
Recent Matches of Casa Pia
| 23 Jan | D | Casa Pia. |
3:3 |
AFS. |
| 16 Jan | L | Sporting C. |
3:0 |
Casa Pia. |
| 04 Jan | L |  Rio Ave. |
3:1 |
Casa Pia. |
| 28 Dec | D | Casa Pia. |
0:0 |
Guimaraes. |
| 21 Dec | W |  Tondela. |
1:2 |
Casa Pia. |
| 17 Dec | L | Casa Pia. |
1:2 |
Torreense. |
| 13 Dec | D | Casa Pia. |
1:1 |
Gil Vicent. |
| 06 Dec | L |  Santa Clar. |
1:0 |
Casa Pia. |
| 29 Nov | L | Casa Pia. |
0:2 |
Alverca. |
| 22 Nov | W |  Alpendorad. |
0:3 |
Casa Pia. |
Portugal - Primeira Liga| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Porto | 19 | 40-4 | 55 |
| 2 |
Sporting CP | 19 | 52-10 | 48 |
| 3 |
Benfica | 19 | 42-11 | 45 |
| 4 |
SC Braga | 19 | 37-18 | 33 |
| 5 |
GIL Vicente | 19 | 24-16 | 31 |
| 6 |
Moreirense | 19 | 26-26 | 30 |
| 7 |
Famalicao | 19 | 24-14 | 29 |
| 8 |
Estoril | 19 | 37-31 | 26 |
| 9 |
Guimaraes | 19 | 20-27 | 25 |
| 10 |
Alverca | 19 | 19-33 | 23 |
| 11 |
Nacional | 19 | 26-28 | 20 |
| 12 |
Rio Ave | 19 | 22-35 | 20 |
| 13 |
Estrela | 19 | 23-36 | 19 |
| 14 |
Santa Clara | 19 | 14-21 | 17 |
| 15 |
Arouca | 19 | 20-44 | 17 |
| 16 |
Casa Pia | 19 | 20-38 | 15 |
| 17 |
Tondela | 19 | 12-33 | 12 |
| 18 |
AVS | 19 | 14-47 | 5 |
