Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Belgium
Preview
The St. Truiden vs Charleroi prediction for Saturday, 31 January 2026 (19:45 GMT) is shaped by two teams arriving with real momentum, and by one detail that often decides games in Sint-Truiden: the artificial turf at the Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium. This is not the kind of pitch where you “just settle in after 20 minutes” — the ball speed and bounces demand instant adaptation.
St. Truiden are living a season their fans will talk about for years. Sitting 2nd, they have won eight of their last nine, and their home performances have been defined by control, discipline, and wins that feel earned rather than gifted. Charleroi, in 7th, have become the league’s comeback specialists under their new boss, and they travel with a six-game unbeaten run that includes statement results.
Mazzù’s St. Truiden tend to value the ball, working short passes and building through the middle. He often talks about “efficiency” and “fighting spirit,” and that mindset fits a team that knows how to win tight matches. Rihito Yamamoto returns from suspension, which helps their midfield balance, while Ryotaro Ito remains their main creative spark. At the back, Kokubo’s steady goalkeeping has been part of their consistency.
Charleroi, now permanently led by Hans Cornelis (confirmed 6 January), have looked more stable and more direct. They try to find depth earlier rather than pass sideways. Patrick Pflücke has been creating chances at a high rate recently, with Parfait Guiagon providing goals. The downside: they are expected to miss starting goalkeeper Theo Defourny, plus Mbenza and Sow. They also sold young striker Alexandre Stanic on 27 January, trimming depth up front.
The most recent head to head meeting (03 August 2024) ended 4-1 to Charleroi, a result STVV will not have forgotten. Still, this season’s versions of both teams look sharper and more organised, especially STVV at Stayen.
The 1X2 betting odds price St. Truiden at 2.4, the draw at 3.5, and Charleroi at 3.05. Our AI leans to the home win (pick “1”) at 2.4, but with a modest trust rating (4.1/10). That low confidence makes sense: Charleroi have already shown they can ruin a nice story on the road, like the 2.4 away win at Anderlecht on 26 December 2025 at huge odds (5.1).
Where the model is more comfortable is total goals. The best tip is under 3.5 goals (odds 1.39) with trust around 5.5–5.6/10. This connects neatly with STVV’s home pattern: controlled games, narrow margins, and a focus on efficiency over fireworks.
Possession is projected at 57% for STVV, with shots 14–10 and shots on target 4–3. Corners are forecast at 5–5 (10 total), and cards at 1–1. Put together, it reads like a measured STVV performance: more ball, slightly more threat, and just enough bite to stop Charleroi’s direct runs. In short, this St. Truiden vs Charleroi prediction points to a home edge, but the smarter betting lane is keeping goals below four.
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U3.5 -256
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -2561 140
St. Truiden is expected to win with odds of 140Under 3.5 -256
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -147
Both teams are expected to score1X&U4.5 -149
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
2:1
|
|
5
-
9
-
11
|
|
 Charleroi |
03-Aug-25
1:1
| St. Truiden  |
| Charleroi |
21-Dec-24
2:1
| St. Truiden |
| St. Truiden |
03-Aug-24
1:4
| Charleroi |
| St. Truiden |
23-Dec-23
1:0
| Charleroi |
| Charleroi |
03-Sep-23
1:1
| St. Truiden |
| Charleroi |
26-Feb-23
1:0
| St. Truiden |
| St. Truiden |
15-Oct-22
2:1
| Charleroi |
| St. Truiden |
28-Jan-22
0:1
| Charleroi |
| Charleroi |
31-Jul-21
0:0
| St. Truiden |
| Charleroi |
05-Mar-21
0:0
| St. Truiden |
Recent Matches of St. Truiden| 15 Mar |
Genk
| - |
St. Truiden
| - | |
| 08 Mar | W |
St. Truiden
| 2 |
Cercle B
| 1 |
| 28 Feb | L |
Antwerp
| 1 |
St. Truiden
| 0 |
| 21 Feb | W |
Dender
| 1 |
St. Truiden
| 4 |
| 15 Feb | W |
St. Truiden
| 3 |
Waregem
| 2 |
| 06 Feb | W |
Westerlo
| 0 |
St. Truiden
| 4 |
| 31 Jan | L |
St. Truiden
| 0 |
Charleroi
| 2 |
| 24 Jan | W |
RAAL L
| 1 |
St. Truiden
| 2 |
| 18 Jan | W |
St. Truiden
| 1 |
Leuven
| 0 |
| 26 Dec | W |
St. Liege
| 1 |
St. Truiden
| 2 |
Recent Matches of Charleroi
| 14 Mar | Charleroi |
- |  Leuven |
- | |
| 07 Mar | D |  Dender |
2 | Charleroi |
2 |
| 01 Mar | L | Charleroi |
1 |  Club B |
2 |
| 22 Feb | L |  Westerlo |
2 | Charleroi |
1 |
| 14 Feb | L | Charleroi |
2 |  Gent |
3 |
| 11 Feb | L |  Union S |
4 | Charleroi |
1 |
| 07 Feb | L | Charleroi |
3 |  Cercle B |
4 |
| 04 Feb | D | Charleroi |
0 | Union S |
0 |
| 31 Jan | W | St. Truiden |
0 | Charleroi |
2 |
| 25 Jan | W |  Antwerp |
0 | Charleroi |
2 |
Belgium - Jupiler Pro League| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Union St. | 28 | 45-16 | 60 |
| 2 |
Club Brugge KV | 28 | 53-34 | 57 |
| 3 |
St. Truiden | 28 | 46-31 | 57 |
| 4 |
Anderlecht | 28 | 41-35 | 44 |
| 5 |
KV Mechelen | 28 | 37-33 | 42 |
| 6 |
Gent | 28 | 44-42 | 39 |
| 7 |
Standard Liege | 28 | 26-34 | 38 |
| 8 |
Genk | 28 | 40-42 | 38 |
| 9 |
KVC Westerlo | 28 | 35-38 | 38 |
| 10 |
Antwerp | 28 | 30-30 | 34 |
| 11 |
Charleroi | 28 | 38-39 | 34 |
| 12 |
Zulte Waregem | 28 | 37-45 | 29 |
| 13 |
OH Leuven | 28 | 29-43 | 28 |
| 14 |
Cercle Brugge | 28 | 35-42 | 28 |
| 15 |
RAAL La | 28 | 22-31 | 27 |
| 16 |
Dender | 28 | 23-46 | 19 |
