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Match Prediction

Stoke vs Middlesbrough Prediction

Finished

Stoke

€66.88m

21 Jan15:00
1 : 2

Middlesbrough

€113.90m

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Stoke vs Middlesbrough Prediction Championship

Stoke vs Middlesbrough Prediction: Form, Odds, and Tactical Insight

The Stoke vs Middlesbrough prediction is on everyone’s lips as the Championship gears up for a chilly January evening at the bet365 Stadium. With both sides fighting for their own ambitions, this fixture promises more than just three points—it’s a real test of depth, tactics, and nerve. Let’s break down the key talking points, recent form, and, of course, our top betting tips for this highly anticipated encounter.

Team Form and Tactical Overview

Middlesbrough, currently sitting pretty in 2nd place with 46 points from 26 matches, have shown why they’re one of the promotion favorites. Under the guidance of Kim Hellberg, who took the reins in late November, Boro have focused on a possession-based approach, often dictating the tempo and looking to control the midfield. Their 13 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses reflect a team that knows how to grind out results, even when not at their best.

Stoke City, meanwhile, are 8th in the table with 40 points, boasting 12 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses. Mark Robins has instilled a disciplined shape, focusing on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their recent run—three wins, a draw, and two losses in their last six—shows a side that’s tough to beat but sometimes struggles for consistency, especially with a mounting injury list.

Injury News and Squad Depth

  • Stoke City are battling a lengthy injury list, especially up front and at the back. Divin Mubama’s broken leg, Sam Gallagher’s hamstring, and Viktor Johansson’s shoulder surgery have forced tactical tweaks. Young keeper Tommy Simkin has stepped up with three clean sheets, while Gavin Bazunu could arrive to bolster the squad. Key absentees like Robert Bozenik, Junior Tchamadeu, and Lewis Baker mean Robins must shuffle his pack.
  • Middlesbrough aren’t faring much better, with injuries to Kaly Sène, Alex Bangura, and Callum Brittain, among others. New signings like Adilson Malanda and potential debuts for Leo Castledine and Finley Munroe offer fresh options, but the squad is being stretched to its limits.

Recent Head to Head and Market Value

Looking back at their last head to head on February 25, 2025, Middlesbrough ran out 2.9 winners, showing their attacking prowess. Historically, these matches tend to be competitive, with Boro’s higher squad value (€1.31.90m to Stoke’s €66.88m) and recent league position giving them a slight edge.

Stats, Odds, and What to Expect

  • Possession: Expect Middlesbrough to edge the ball with 53% to Stoke’s 47%.
  • Total Shots: Boro are predicted to fire off 15 shots (4 on target), while Stoke should muster 10 (2 on target).
  • Corners: A lively match is expected with 13 corners (8 for Boro, 5 for Stoke).
  • Discipline: Just one yellow card apiece is forecast, suggesting a competitive but fair contest.

The betting odds reflect the tight nature of this fixture: a home win for Stoke is priced at 2.9, a draw at 3.3, and an away win for Middlesbrough at 2.52. The 1x2 prediction from our AI leans towards an away win (Boro) with a trust level of 3.4 and odds of 2.52.

AI Tips and Stoke vs Middlesbrough Prediction

Our AI model’s top selection for this Stoke vs Middlesbrough prediction is under 3.5 total goals, with a confidence rating of 6.8/10 and odds of 1.31. Both teams have shown a tendency for low-scoring affairs lately, especially with key attackers missing and defences tightening up. The predicted final score is 1:2 in favor of Middlesbrough, with a 1:1 scoreline expected at half-time.

  1. Under 3.5 goals – Both teams are missing attacking firepower, and recent head to head results suggest a maximum of three goals.
  2. Middlesbrough to win – The away side’s squad depth and tactical discipline could just tip the balance, especially with Stoke’s injury woes.

In summary, this Stoke vs Middlesbrough prediction points to a tight, tactical battle with Boro’s extra quality and squad value making the difference. Expect a competitive game, a few nervy moments, and a result that could shape the top of the Championship table. As always, keep an eye on the team news and enjoy what promises to be a fascinating night under the lights!

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Middlesbrough didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Stoke vs Middlesbrough

U3.5 -323

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -323
6/10

1x2 Tip

2 152

Middlesbrough is expected to win with odds of 152
3/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -323

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
6/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -130

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 -154

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
2/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

1:1

Correct Score

1:2

Stats Predictions

0.98
xG
1.45
47%
Ball Possession
53%
10
Total Shots
15
2
Shots on Goal
4
3
Shots Off Goal
5
5
Corners
8
1
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

0.83
Expected Goals
1.47
1.6
Total Goals
2.9
0.7
Goals Scored
1.7
0.9
Goals Against
1.2
53%
Possession
62%
10.2
Total Shots
15.9
3.1
Shots on Goal
4.7
3.9
Shots off Goal
5.6
12.2
Fouls
8.4
5.9
Corners
8.4
2.6
Offsides
1.8
2
Yellow Cards
1.25
417
Total Passes
509

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
5
4
Over 1.5 Goals
7
3
Over 2.5 Goals
6
1
Over 3.5 Goals
5
2
Both Teams Scored
5
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
1

Head to Head

Stoke
5 - 6 - 7
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 30-Sep-25
0:0
Stoke Stoke
Stoke Stoke 25-Feb-25
1:3
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 28-Sep-24
2:0
Stoke Stoke
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 27-Aug-24
0:5
Stoke Stoke
Stoke Stoke 02-Mar-24
2:0
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 28-Oct-23
0:2
Stoke Stoke
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 14-Mar-23
1:1
Stoke Stoke
Stoke Stoke 17-Aug-22
2:2
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 30-Apr-22
3:1
Stoke Stoke
Stoke Stoke 11-Dec-21
0:0
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough

Profile time Recent Matches of Stoke

31 Jan Stoke Stoke.
-
Southampton. Southampton
24 JanD Birmingham Birmingham.
1:1
Stoke. Stoke
21 JanL Stoke Stoke.
1:2
Middlesbroug. Middlesbrough
17 JanD Stoke Stoke.
0:0
QPR. QPR
10 JanW Stoke Stoke.
1:0
Coventry. Coventry
04 JanW Norwich Norwich.
0:2
Stoke. Stoke
01 JanW Hull Hull.
0:1
Stoke. Stoke
29 DecL Stoke Stoke.
1:2
Sheffield Ut. Sheffield Utd
26 DecD Stoke Stoke.
0:0
Preston. Preston
20 DecL Watford Watford.
1:0
Stoke. Stoke

Profile time Recent Matches of Middlesbrough

24 JanWMiddlesbrough Middlesbroug.
4:0
Preston.Preston
21 JanWStoke Stoke.
1:2
Middlesbroug.Middlesbrough
16 JanWWest Brom West Brom.
2:3
Middlesbroug.Middlesbrough
10 JanLFulham Fulham.
3:1
Middlesbroug.Middlesbrough
04 JanWMiddlesbrough Middlesbroug.
4:0
Southampton.Southampton
01 JanLDerby Derby.
1:0
Middlesbroug.Middlesbrough
29 DecLMiddlesbrough Middlesbroug.
0:1
Hull.Hull
26 DecDMiddlesbrough Middlesbroug.
0:0
Blackburn.Blackburn
20 DecLBristol City Bristol City.
2:0
Middlesbroug.Middlesbrough
13 DecWMiddlesbrough Middlesbroug.
3:1
QPR.QPR

England - Championship England - Championship

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Coventry Coventry29
62-33
58
2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough29
46-29
55
3 Ipswich Ipswich28
48-27
50
4 Hull City Hull City28
47-40
50
5 Millwall Millwall29
36-35
49
6 Wrexham Wrexham29
43-37
44
7 Bristol City Bristol City29
40-31
43
8 Watford Watford28
39-33
43
9 Preston Preston29
36-33
43
10 Stoke City Stoke City29
34-26
42
11 Derby Derby29
39-37
42
12 QPR QPR29
40-42
40
13 Birmingham Birmingham29
39-38
39
14 Leicester Leicester29
40-43
38
15 Southampton Southampton29
41-41
37
16 Swansea Swansea29
32-37
36
17 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd28
39-41
35
18 Norwich Norwich29
37-41
33
19 Charlton Charlton28
27-38
32
20 West Brom West Brom29
32-44
32
21 Portsmouth Portsmouth27
24-37
30
22 Blackburn Blackburn28
26-37
29
23 Oxford United Oxford United28
27-36
27
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield28
18-56
-7
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