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Match Prediction

Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK Prediction

Finished
Austria flag Austria
Bundesliga

Sturm Graz

€53.08m

7 Dec11:00
2 : 1

Grazer AK

€8.98m

Preview

Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK Prediction Bundesliga

Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK Prediction: Derby Drama & Betting Tips

The Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK prediction is on every football fan’s mind as the iconic Graz Derby returns to the Merkur Arena on December 7, 2025, with a 16:00 UTC kickoff. This isn’t just another Bundesliga fixture—it’s a local rivalry that has been stirring passions since 1911. With both teams at very different points in their seasons, there’s plenty to unpack for punters and fans alike.

Form, Tactics & the Numbers Game

Let’s start with the basics: Sturm Graz are flying higher in the league, sitting in 2nd place with 25 points. Their recent Bundesliga form is a bit of a mixed bag—three losses in their last six—but they remain a force at home. Grazer AK, meanwhile, are down in 11th with 15 points, and their away record is, let’s say, less than inspiring, with three defeats in their last six trips.

  • Head to head: The numbers don’t lie—Sturm Graz have won every one of their last six meetings with Grazer AK. The most recent was a confident 3-0 win back in August 2025, following a 5-2 victory in October 2024. If history is any guide, the home team has the upper hand.
  • Squad value: Sturm Graz’s squad is valued at over €53 million, while Grazer AK’s is just under €9 million. That’s not just a gap—it’s a chasm.
  • Injuries: The only notable absence is Sturm’s defender Dimitri Lavalée, who’s sidelined for the foreseeable future. No other major injuries are reported for this game.

Tactically, Sturm Graz are expected to dominate possession (projected 62%) and rack up 14 shots, with 4 likely to be on target. Grazer AK, on the other hand, will probably focus on counter-attacks, given their predicted 7 shots and just 2 on target. Expect Sturm to press high and try to settle the game early, while Grazer AK will hope to frustrate and maybe nick something on the break.

AI Betting Tips & Our Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK Prediction

Now, let’s talk about what the NerdyTips AI has to say. If you’re here for smart betting tips, you’ll want to pay attention:

  • Best bet: Home win (Sturm Graz to win) at odds of 1.88. The AI gives this a trust score of 5.2 out of 10—not a sure thing, but the safest pick on the table given the stats and recent form.
  • Over/Under: Under 3.5 goals at 1.34 odds is suggested, but confidence is only 2.8/10. This reflects the expectation of a controlled game, with Sturm likely to keep things tight at the back.
  • Predicted score: 1-0 to Sturm Graz. The AI expects an early goal (half-time: 1-0), with Sturm’s defense holding firm for the rest of the match.
  • Other stats to watch: 6-2 in corners for Sturm, and a total of 3 yellow cards (1 for Sturm, 2 for Grazer AK).

Looking at the Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK prediction from our AI, the signs all point to a home victory. The odds for a home win (1.88) reflect the gulf in quality and recent results between these two sides. If you’re feeling brave, a correct score bet of 1-0 could be worth a small flutter, but don’t expect a goalfest—history and recent data both suggest a low-scoring affair.

Final Thoughts: Derby Day Delight?

The Graz Derby always brings a special energy, but the numbers suggest this will be Sturm’s day once again. With a dominant head to head record, more talent on the pitch, and home advantage, everything is stacked in their favor. Still, as Grazer AK’s shock win over Rapid showed, football loves a surprise. Keep it fun, bet responsibly, and enjoy what promises to be another memorable chapter in this storied rivalry.

  • Recommended bet: Sturm Graz to win (odds 1.88)
  • Secondary bet: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.34)

Whether you’re a die-hard fan or just looking for solid betting tips, this Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK prediction should help you make the most of derby day. Happy watching!

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Best Tip odd is moving up from 1.6

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK

1 -114

Sturm Graz is expected to win with odds of -114
5/10

1x2 Tip

1 -114

Sturm Graz is expected to win with odds of -114
5/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -400

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
2/10

Both Teams To Score

No -130

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -263

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
5/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:0

Stats Predictions

1.23
xG
0.91
62%
Ball Possession
38%
14
Total Shots
7
4
Shots on Goal
2
6
Shots Off Goal
3
6
Corners
2
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

2.6
Total Goals
2.1
0.9
Goals Scored
1.1
1.7
Goals Against
1
55%
Possession
44%
12.1
Total Shots
8.4
3.5
Shots on Goal
2.2
5.8
Shots off Goal
4.2
13.2
Fouls
14.1
4.9
Corners
3.2
1.9
Offsides
1.6
1.6
Yellow Cards
2.56
439
Total Passes
331

Overview Last 10 Matches

1
Wins
3
8
Over 1.5 Goals
6
6
Over 2.5 Goals
5
3
Over 3.5 Goals
3
8
Both Teams Scored
6
0
Unexpected Wins
1
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Sturm Graz
5 - 0 - 0
Grazer AK
Grazer AK Grazer AK 30-Aug-25
0:3
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
Grazer AK Grazer AK 09-Mar-25
1:2
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 19-Oct-24
5:2
Grazer AK Grazer AK
Grazer AK Grazer AK 02-Nov-23
2:3
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
Grazer AK Grazer AK 19-Oct-22
0:1
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz

Profile time Recent Matches of Sturm Graz

14 JanW Sturm Graz Sturm Graz.
4:2
FC Copenhage. FC Copenhagen
08 JanD Club B Club B.
2:2
Sturm Graz. Sturm Graz
14 DecL Austria V Austria V.
3:1
Sturm Graz. Sturm Graz
11 DecL Sturm Graz Sturm Graz.
0:1
Crvena zvezd. Crvena zvezda
07 DecW Sturm Graz Sturm Graz.
2:1
Grazer AK. Grazer AK
03 DecL Sturm Graz Sturm Graz.
1:3
Tirol. Tirol
30 NovW Hartberg Hartberg.
0:1
Sturm Graz. Sturm Graz
27 NovL Panathinaikos Panathinaiko.
2:1
Sturm Graz. Sturm Graz
23 NovL Sturm Graz Sturm Graz.
1:3
LASK. LASK
09 NovD Sturm Graz Sturm Graz.
1:1
Red B. Red B

Profile time Recent Matches of Grazer AK

16 JanGrazer AK Grazer AK.
-
Admira.Admira
13 JanDGrazer AK Grazer AK.
1:1
Komarno.Komarno
13 DecLGrazer AK Grazer AK.
1:2
LASK.LASK
07 DecLSturm Graz Sturm Graz.
2:1
Grazer AK.Grazer AK
29 NovWGrazer AK Grazer AK.
3:1
BW Linz.BW Linz
23 NovWSK Rapid SK Rapid.
1:2
Grazer AK.Grazer AK
08 NovLAustria V Austria V.
2:1
Grazer AK.Grazer AK
01 NovWGrazer AK Grazer AK.
3:1
Altach.Altach
25 OctLLASK LASK.
1:0
Grazer AK.Grazer AK
18 OctDGrazer AK Grazer AK.
0:0
Hartberg.Hartberg

Austria - Bundesliga Austria - Bundesliga

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzb16
34-20
29
2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz16
26-20
28
3 Lask Linz Lask Linz16
22-20
26
4 Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna16
20-20
24
5 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC16
24-19
24
6 TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg16
24-21
23
7 Austria Vienna Austria Vienna16
22-25
23
8 Ried Ried16
20-23
23
9 SCR Altach SCR Altach16
18-16
21
10 WSG Wattens WSG Wattens16
23-24
21
11 Grazer AK Grazer AK16
16-27
15
12 FC BW Linz FC BW Linz16
14-28
10
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