Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Preview
If you’re looking for a Sudtirol vs Venezia prediction that feels more like a chat at the bar than a spreadsheet, you’re in the right place. This Serie B Round 27 game lands on 2026-02-28 at 14:00 GMT (15:00 local) at the Stadio Marco Druso in Bolzano, a cozy 5,500-seat ground where visiting favorites don’t always feel so comfortable.
On paper, these teams are living different seasons. Venezia come in as league leaders, still riding the momentum of an eye-catching run that included an eight-game winning streak earlier this month. They followed that up with a gritty 3-2 win over Pescara on February 21, the kind of result champions grind out when legs are heavy and pressure is loud.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, are 9th and trying to stay in the playoff conversation. Their seven-match unbeaten run (5 wins, 2 draws) ended with a blunt 3-0 loss at Palermo on February 21. The timing is rough, but Fabrizio Castori sounded like a man who prefers “reset” to “panic,” and facing the league leaders right away can actually help a team refocus. Nothing clears the mind like a top-of-the-table opponent.
Castori’s Sudtirol usually lean into a 3-5-2 and a direct, physical style. Expect them to sit compact, fight for second balls, and break quickly—especially at home where the crowd is close enough to judge every misplaced pass.
Giovanni Stroppa’s Venezia are also often in a 3-5-2, but with a calmer, possession-first rhythm. They’ve regularly been north of 60% possession lately, using midfield quality to move the opponent around and then play forward with purpose. Stroppa’s message is simple: no easing off, because the league waits for leaders to blink.
The head to head lean is real: Venezia have won 8 of the 14 meetings, while Sudtirol have 4 wins. And the most recent H2H on 2024-02.00 finished 0-3 to Venezia, with bookmakers then pricing Venezia at 2.05. Fast forward to now and the market is even more confident: Sudtirol are 4.55, the draw 3.45, and Venezia 2.0. Also worth remembering: Sudtirol have pulled surprises before (like that 1-1 away at Monza when priced around 6.5). Venezia, too, have been in strange scorelines—Napoli once couldn’t break them down in a 0-0 despite heavy odds. Serie B energy with a Serie A moral: favorites don’t get points for reputation.
Now to the NerdyTips numbers, where the story lines up neatly with the stats. Venezia are projected to have 60% possession to Sudtirol’s 40%, with a shot edge of 16 to 10 and on-target shots 6 to 2. That’s the profile of an away side that controls territory and creates the cleaner chances.
The X2 makes sense if you respect Sudtirol’s home toughness and Castori’s ability to turn games into arm-wrestles. But if you’re playing the bigger price, the straight Venezia win at 2.0 fits the match model: more ball, more shots, more on-target, and a squad valued at €53.452m versus Sudtirol’s €17.48m.
Our Sudtirol vs Venezia prediction for the score is 1-2, with a 0-1 halftime read. Corners are projected at 3-3 (so don’t expect a corner party), and cards slightly favor Sudtirol (2 vs 1), which often happens when one team defends more and arrives a split-second late. If you want a simple plan: start with X2 for safety, and consider the away win if you’re comfortable backing the league leaders to act like it.
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Venezia has an unusually high recent form
X2 -370
Venezia to win or draw with odds of -3702 100
Venezia is expected to win with odds of 100Under 3.5 -278
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -137
Both teams are expected to scoreX2&U4.5 -204
Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
0:1
1:2
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|
3
-
0
-
5
|
|
 Venezia |
29-Oct-25
3:0
| Sudtirol  |
| Sudtirol |
10-Feb-24
0:3
| Venezia |
| Venezia |
16-Dec-23
2:3
| Sudtirol |
| Venezia |
21-Jan-23
0:1
| Sudtirol |
| Sudtirol |
21-Aug-22
1:2
| Venezia |
| Venezia |
05-Aug-18
0:1
| Sudtirol |
| Sudtirol |
02-Apr-17
0:2
| Venezia |
| Venezia |
12-Nov-16
2:0
| Sudtirol |
Recent Matches of Sudtirol| 03 Mar |
Reggiana
| - |
Sudtirol
| - | |
| 28 Feb | D |
Sudtirol
| 1 |
Venezia
| 1 |
| 21 Feb | L |
Palermo
| 3 |
Sudtirol
| 0 |
| 15 Feb | W |
Bari
| 1 |
Sudtirol
| 2 |
| 11 Feb | D |
Sudtirol
| 0 |
Monza
| 0 |
| 07 Feb | D |
Carrarese
| 0 |
Sudtirol
| 0 |
| 31 Jan | W |
Sudtirol
| 2 |
Catanzaro
| 1 |
| 25 Jan | W |
Sudtirol
| 3 |
Padova
| 0 |
| 17 Jan | W |
Empoli
| 0 |
Sudtirol
| 1 |
| 10 Jan | W |
Sudtirol
| 2 |
Spezia
| 1 |
Recent Matches of Venezia
| 03 Mar | Venezia |
- |  Avellino |
- | |
| 28 Feb | D | Sudtirol |
1 | Venezia |
1 |
| 21 Feb | W | Venezia |
3 |  Pescara |
2 |
| 14 Feb | W |  Cesena |
0 | Venezia |
4 |
| 10 Feb | L | Venezia |
0 |  Modena |
2 |
| 07 Feb | W |  Frosinone |
1 | Venezia |
2 |
| 31 Jan | W | Venezia |
2 |  Carrarese |
1 |
| 24 Jan | W |  Mantova |
2 | Venezia |
5 |
| 17 Jan | W | Venezia |
3 |  Catanzaro |
1 |
| 10 Jan | W |  Reggiana |
1 | Venezia |
3 |
Italy - Serie B| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Venezia | 27 | 54-25 | 57 |
| 2 |
Monza | 27 | 41-20 | 57 |
| 3 |
Frosinone | 27 | 50-26 | 54 |
| 4 |
Palermo | 27 | 46-21 | 51 |
| 5 |
Catanzaro | 27 | 39-29 | 45 |
| 6 |
Modena | 27 | 36-22 | 43 |
| 7 |
Juve Stabia | 27 | 31-31 | 39 |
| 8 |
Cesena | 27 | 35-38 | 38 |
| 9 |
Sudtirol | 27 | 27-28 | 34 |
| 10 |
Padova | 27 | 28-33 | 33 |
| 11 |
Empoli | 27 | 33-37 | 31 |
| 12 |
Carrarese | 26 | 31-36 | 30 |
| 13 |
Avellino | 27 | 30-42 | 30 |
| 14 |
Reggiana | 27 | 29-36 | 29 |
| 15 |
Sampdoria | 27 | 28-36 | 29 |
| 16 |
Mantova | 26 | 26-41 | 26 |
| 17 |
Spezia | 27 | 23-35 | 25 |
| 18 |
Virtus Entella | 27 | 24-39 | 25 |
| 19 |
Bari | 27 | 23-39 | 25 |
| 20 |
Pescara | 27 | 32-52 | 21 |
