Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Mexico
Toluca
€73.65m
Santos Laguna
€33.50m
Preview
As we look ahead to Sunday night football in Liga MX, the Toluca vs Santos Laguna prediction is shaping up to be more straightforward than most. Scheduled for April 7, 2025, at 01:00 GMT, this matchup at Estadio Nemesio Díez is tipped heavily in favor of the home side. And judging by the numbers, it’s hard to argue against the odds.
Toluca, with a market value of €73.65m, more than doubles Santos Laguna’s €33.50m squad worth. That difference has been playing out on the pitch this season too. With Toluca expected to control a whopping 69% of possession and fire off 19 shots, including 9 on target, they’re not just favorites—they’re likely to be in full command.
Let’s talk history. In their most recent meeting on February 22, 2024, Toluca edged out Santos Laguna 1-0. Not exactly a landslide, but a win nonetheless. However, the visitors did pull off a surprise back in September 2024 with a 2-0 victory, showing they’re capable of the occasional upset. That said, lightning doesn’t usually strike twice—especially not at the Nemesio Díez.
The bookies aren’t holding back here. A home win is priced at just 1.19, signaling high confidence in Toluca. A draw sits at 7.0, while a Santos win is a long shot at 12.0. These odds suggest not just a win, but potentially a dominant one for the Red Devils.
that Toluca will win by at least two goals, which comes with a trust score of 5.4 out of 10 and odds of 1.53—making it the most valuable betting option in this matchup.
Why is this bet so appealing? For starters, the predicted final score is a bold 4-0 in favor of Toluca. The AI sees them going up 2-0 by halftime and never looking back. Add in the expected dominance in possession, shots, and even corners (6 for Toluca, 3 for Santos), and it’s clear the home side is poised to control every aspect of this game.
For punters looking at the goals market, there’s some juicy value in the over 3.5 goals line. With odds of 1.75 and a trust score of 5.3, our AI believes this total is well within reach. Considering Toluca’s attacking intent and the potential for them to score freely against a leaky Santos defense, this might be the kind of night where one team does all the scoring—and still hits the over.
League-wide stats also support this. In Liga MX, 26% of matches end with over 3.5 goals, but when you factor in Toluca’s home form and the predicted 4-0 outcome, this bet gains even more credibility.
also leans heavily on the overall match trends in Mexico. Home teams win 40.9% of the time in Liga MX, and Toluca’s fortress-like home record fits that trend perfectly. They’ve shown time and again they can handle pressure, and with Santos struggling for consistency on the road, this looks like a mismatch on paper and likely, on grass too.
To sum it up, this isn’t just a match—it’s a betting opportunity backed by stats, form, and AI logic. If you’re looking to place a smart wager, Toluca to win by at least two goals is your best shot. And if you’re feeling adventurous, throw in over 3.5 goals to spice things up. Either way, Sunday night might just be a Red Devil party in Toluca.
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H1 -189
H11 -526
Toluca is expected to win with odds of -526Over 3.5 -133
At least 4 goals will be scored in the matchNo 110
At least one team is not expected to score
4:0
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10
-
5
-
8
|
|
 Toluca |
07-Apr-25
2:1
| Santos L  |
| Santos L |
23-Sep-24
2:0
| Toluca |
| Toluca |
22-Feb-24
1:0
| Santos L |
| Santos L |
06-Nov-23
3:1
| Toluca |
| Santos L |
24-Feb-23
0:5
| Toluca |
| Santos L |
17-Oct-22
1:2
| Toluca |
| Toluca |
14-Oct-22
4:3
| Santos L |
| Toluca |
23-Jul-22
2:1
| Santos L |
| Toluca |
16-Jan-22
3:1
| Santos L |
| Santos L |
25-Oct-21
2:2
| Toluca |
Recent Matches of Toluca| 15 Dec | W |
Toluca.
|
2:1
| Tigres UANL.
|
| 12 Dec | L |
Tigres UANL.
|
1:0
| Toluca.
|
Recent Matches Of Santos L
Mexico - Liga MX| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Toluca |
17 | 41-22 | 37 |
| 2 |
 Club America |
17 | 34-10 | 34 |
| 3 |
 Cruz Azul |
17 | 26-16 | 33 |
| 4 |
Tigres UANL |
17 | 24-14 | 33 |
| 5 |
 Necaxa |
17 | 36-29 | 31 |
| 6 |
 Leon |
17 | 24-21 | 30 |
| 7 |
 Monterrey |
17 | 32-23 | 28 |
| 8 |
 Pachuca |
17 | 29-23 | 28 |
| 9 |
 FC Juarez |
17 | 16-21 | 24 |
| 10 |
 U.N.A.M. - Pum |
17 | 23-26 | 21 |
| 11 |
 Guadalajara Ch |
17 | 18-21 | 21 |
| 12 |
 Club Queretaro |
17 | 17-24 | 20 |
| 13 |
 Club Tijuana |
17 | 29-35 | 19 |
| 14 |
 Atlas |
17 | 25-32 | 18 |
| 15 |
 Atletico San L |
17 | 20-33 | 18 |
| 16 |
 Mazatlán |
17 | 16-26 | 17 |
| 17 |
 Puebla |
17 | 12-25 | 9 |
| 18 |
 Santos Laguna |
17 | 15-36 | 7 |
