Torino vs Bologna Prediction

Torino vs Bologna prediction: form, tactics, odds, tips

The Torino vs Bologna prediction for Sunday, 15 February 2026 (17:00 GMT) feels like one of those Serie A afternoons where patience matters as much as talent. They arrive separated by just three points in the lower half, with Torino trying to turn spirit into wins, and Bologna trying to turn possession into goals. It’s Round 25 at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, and the mood is simple: someone needs a clean, convincing performance.

Setting the scene: table pressure and recent form

Bologna sit around mid-table (10th on 30 points in the latest snapshot), but early 2026 has been uneven: only one league win since the turn of the year, plus recent losses that have dulled their momentum. Torino (13th on 27 points) have also wobbled, yet they just reminded everyone they can bite back—snatching a 2-2 draw away to Fiorentina on 7 February, despite massive pre-match betting odds against them.

• Torino: resilience showed in Florence, but consistency is still the big missing piece.
• Bologna: good structure and ball control, but too many short “off” moments that cost points.

Tactical notes: what each coach is trying to fix

Marco Baroni has talked about needing focus for the full match—Torino have had too many late dips. Expect Torino to toggle between a 3-4-2-1 and a more familiar 4-2-3-1 look, depending on game state. Bologna under Vincenzo Italiano should keep the 4-2-3-1, aiming to control territory and tempo, even if their finishing has not matched their build-up lately.

Likely shapes matter here because both teams can look solid for long stretches, then suddenly allow a cheap transition. That’s why this match may feel tight… until it doesn’t.

Projected lineups and key absences

Injuries and suspensions could add a twist. Torino have several fitness questions, while Bologna must replace their suspended goalkeeper.

• Torino absences/doubts: Rafael Obrador out; Perr Schuurs remains a long-term mystery; Ivan Ilic, Adam Masina, and Zakaria Aboukhlal face late tests.
• Bologna absences/doubts: Lukasz Skorupski suspended (Federico Ravaglia expected); Jhon Lucumí doubtful; Federico Bernardeschi also a doubt.

Head to head: trends that shape expectations

The recent head to head leans Bologna. In their last meeting (21 December 2024), Bologna won 2-0. Bologna have taken three of the last five meetings, and Torino have rarely managed big scoring numbers in this pairing. Add another detail: Bologna have been more dangerous away than many expect, with a large share of their goals coming on the road this season.

Torino vs Bologna prediction: NerdyTips odds and best bets

Now to the numbers behind our Torino vs Bologna prediction. The market makes Bologna favourites: Home win 3.25, Draw 3.35, Away win 2.37. The squad value gap (€135.50m vs €283.00m) supports that tilt, but Torino’s recent “unexpected points” profile suggests Bologna still need to earn it.

• Most likely 1X2 outcome: Away win (2) at odds 2.37, confidence 3.2/10
• Best AI tip: Over 1.5 total goals at odds 1.36, confidence 6.9/10

Why the goals angle? Both coaches have spoken about concentration dips—those 5–10 minute spells where structure disappears. Torino also showed in Florence they can score twice away from home, while Bologna’s away output often travels well even when form is patchy. The 1X2 call is lower confidence because Torino’s home grit can bend matches into draws, but the goals line feels more stable.

Correct score lean and quick betting take

Our model’s expected score is 2-3, with a predicted 1-1 at half-time. That points to a lively second half, especially if Bologna’s possession starts pulling Torino’s wing-backs deeper. If you want a simple, readable angle aligned with both form and tactics, the over 1.5 goals covers a lot of realistic paths—1-1 turning into 2-1, 1-2, or even the full 2-3.

Final NerdyTips call: Bologna edge the result, but the cleaner value sits with over 1.5 total goals.