Toulouse vs Auxerre Prediction

Toulouse vs Auxerre Prediction: Form, Stats & Best Betting Tips

The Toulouse vs Auxerre prediction for February 1, 2026, at Stadium de Toulouse, is shaping up to be a must-watch for Ligue 1 fans and punters alike. With both teams at very different points in their season, this fixture promises intrigue, tactical battles, and plenty of betting angles. Let’s dive into the form, team news, tactics, and our best betting tips for this crucial Ligue 1 encounter.

Team Form & Standings: Contrasting Fortunes

Heading into Match Day 20, Toulouse find themselves in a respectable 8th place with 29 points, while Auxerre are languishing in 17th on just 12 points. The hosts have been in good shape recently, winning four of their last six Ligue 1 matches—a run that has seen them climb into the top half of the table. Auxerre, by contrast, are struggling: four defeats in their last six and a worrying inability to find the net in their previous three outings. If recent form is any indicator, the home side has the clear upper hand.

Tactics & Key Players: How They’ll Line Up

• Toulouse: Known for their aggressive approach, Toulouse favor attacking through the middle, taking plenty of shots, and utilizing long balls and crosses. They’re not shy about getting physical and have a knack for coming back from behind. Their strengths include aerial duels, set pieces, and protecting a lead. Despite a few injury headaches—Magri, Methalie, Francis, Gboho, Sauer, and Schmidt are all sidelined—they still boast a squad valued at €108.45m, with Gboho (5 goals), Magri (4), and Cresswell (3) leading the scoring charts.
• Auxerre: Christophe Pélissier’s side is built on pragmatism and resilience, with a preference for attacking down the left and playing with width. They’re aggressive in winning the ball back but have struggled with poorly timed pressing and a lack of cutting edge up front. Auxerre’s injury list is also lengthy—Sierralta, Siwe, Coulibaly, Diomandé, and El Azzouzi are all doubts, while Senaya is suspended. Still, Sinayoko (6 goals) remains a bright spark, supported by Namaso, Casimir, and Osman. The squad is valued at €71.65m, reflecting their underdog status.

Head to Head & Recent Meetings

History is on Toulouse’s side in this fixture, having won half of their last six meetings with Auxerre. In their most recent head to head on December 1, 2024, Toulouse ran out comfortable 2-0 winners. The odds then favored the home side, and the story looks set to repeat itself. Notably, Toulouse have been unbeaten in five of their last six league games against Auxerre—a psychological edge not to be underestimated.

AI Betting Tips & NerdyTips Predictions

Now for the part you’ve all been waiting for: the Toulouse vs Auxerre prediction and our best betting tips. Our statistical analysis and AI-generated insights point decisively toward a home win, with a confidence rating of 8.1 out of 10 and odds around 1.78. Here’s how the numbers stack up:

1. 1x2 Prediction: Toulouse win (1) – Trust rating: 8.1/10, Odds: 1.78. Given their superior form, home advantage, and stronger squad, this looks the safest bet.
2. Under/Over Goals: Under 3.5 goals – Trust rating: 4.5/10, Odds: 1.25. Both sides have defensive injuries, but Auxerre’s recent goal drought and Toulouse’s solid backline suggest a low-scoring affair.
3. Correct Score: 2-0 to Toulouse. The predicted first half score is 1-0, with Toulouse expected to control possession (53%) and create more chances (14 shots to Auxerre’s 11).

Additional Stats to Consider

• Both teams are projected to have 2 yellow cards each, with a total of 10 corners split evenly.
• Toulouse are expected to hit the target five times, while Auxerre may only manage three shots on goal.
• Auxerre’s defensive frailties, exacerbated by key departures and injuries, make them vulnerable against a Toulouse side that thrives at home.

In summary, our Toulouse vs Auxerre prediction is a confident nod toward the home side. With Toulouse’s recent run of form, superior squad value, and historical dominance in this fixture, all signs point to a routine win. Auxerre’s struggles in front of goal and leaky defense only reinforce this view. For punters seeking value, backing Toulouse to win and under 3.5 goals could be the sweet spot.

Stay tuned to NerdyTips for more Ligue 1 betting tips, head to head analysis, and in-depth predictions. This one looks set to go the way of the home team—don’t say we didn’t warn you!