Toulouse vs Nice Prediction

Toulouse vs Nice Prediction: Stats, Odds, and Expert Analysis

Welcome to our Toulouse vs Nice prediction for the Ligue 1 match set for January 17, 2026, at the Stadium de Toulouse. With both teams eager to climb the table, this encounter promises plenty of talking points for football fans and punters alike. Let’s break down the form, stats, and betting odds to help you make the smartest picks.

Form Guide, Team News, and Tactical Insights

Toulouse, currently sitting 8th in Ligue 1 with 23 points, have shown flashes of quality this season. Their record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses from 17 games, with a goal difference of +2 (24 scored, 22 conceded), suggests a team that can compete but sometimes struggles to close out matches. Their recent run—three wins in their last six outings—shows they’re finding some rhythm, especially at home.

Nice, on the other hand, are having a tough campaign. Down in 14th place with just 18 points, they’ve already lost 9 times and have a worrying -10 goal difference (20 scored, 30 conceded). The away form is even more concerning: Nice have failed to win 80% of their last 20 away games and have lost half of their last 20 league matches. That’s not the kind of stat you want when heading to a lively Stadium de Toulouse, especially with the home crowd set for a record-breaking King’s cake event before kickoff!

In terms of head to head history, these sides are no strangers. Out of their last 6 meetings, 3 have ended in draws. Overall, Nice have the edge with 12 wins to Toulouse’s 9, and 10 draws. Their last meeting finished 1-1, so recent history suggests a tight affair.

Squad Updates and Key Absences

• Toulouse: Missing several key players due to injuries, including R. Nicolaisen, N. Schmidt, D. Sidibé, Abu Francis, and Dayann Methalie. However, they’ve just added Pape Demba Diop on loan to bolster midfield options.
• Nice: Facing an even longer injury list, with Y. Ndayishimiye, Mohamed Abdelmoneim, Dante, M. Bombito, and Morgan Sanson all sidelined. Several players are away on international duty, and Melvin Bard is suspended. The ongoing situation with Terem Moffi, who’s on extended sick leave after a traumatic incident, further weakens their attack.

Both teams have made some moves in the transfer market, with Nice bringing in Elye Wahi on loan to try and spark their attack. But with so many absentees, especially for Nice, expect both managers to focus on defensive stability.

What to Expect: Tactics and Match Dynamics

Toulouse, under Carles Martínez Novell, are likely to play to their strengths at home—solid in midfield, looking to exploit set pieces and counterattacks. Nice, led by Claude Puel, will probably try to keep things tight and hope for a moment of magic from their new arrivals or returning players. With both teams missing key personnel, don’t expect an open, end-to-end game.

Key Match Stats and Betting Odds

• Possession: Toulouse 49%, Nice 51%
• Total shots: Toulouse 12, Nice 10
• Shots on target: Both teams 3 each
• Corners: Toulouse 4, Nice 5
• Yellow cards: 2 each
• Market value: Toulouse €103.95m, Nice €153.00m
• Betting odds: Home win 1.95, Draw 3.6, Away win 4.0

AI Predictions and Betting Tips

Here’s where our Toulouse vs Nice prediction gets interesting. Our AI models and the latest tips from NerdyTips both point towards a low-scoring affair:

1. Best Tip: Under 3.5 total goals (odds 1.37, trust level 6.4/10). Both teams have struggled for attacking fluency, and with so many injuries, a goal-fest seems unlikely.
2. 1x2 Market: Home win (odds 1.95, trust rating 3.4/10). Toulouse’s home form and Nice’s away woes make the hosts slight favorites.
3. Final Score Prediction: 1-0 to Toulouse, with a goalless first half. Expect a cagey start, with the home side nicking it after the break.

If you’re looking for value, the under 3.5 goals market looks solid, given both teams’ recent records and the predicted number of shots on target. The home win is also tempting, but with a lower trust rating, it’s not a banker—just a well-reasoned punt.

Final Thoughts: Toulouse vs Nice Prediction Recap

To sum up our Toulouse vs Nice prediction: expect a tight, tactical battle with few clear chances. Toulouse’s home advantage and slightly better form give them the edge, but don’t rule out a stubborn Nice side trying to grind out a result. The smart money is on under 3.5 total goals, and if you fancy a correct score flutter, 1-0 to the hosts is our pick.

Whether you’re betting or just watching, enjoy the football—and if you’re at the Stadium, don’t miss your slice of galette des rois before kickoff!