Trabzonspor vs Karagumruk Prediction

Trabzonspor vs Karagumruk prediction for Friday night

Trabzonspor vs Karagumruk prediction time at Papara Park: Friday, 27 February 2026, 17:00 GMT. On paper it’s a top-three side hosting a relegation fighter, but the mood is not “relax and enjoy.” Trabzonspor are under pressure to stay in the title race, while Karagümrük are under pressure to simply stay in the league. Different problems, same stress.

Table context, tension, and a keeper under the spotlight

Trabzonspor come in sitting third, with Karagümrük down in 18th. Yet the loudest talking point is not the table, it’s the goalmouth. André Onana has been heavily criticised after recent mistakes, including a match where he reportedly conceded three times from three shots on target. Coach Fatih Tekke has tried the “private chat” route, but the message sounds simple: improve fast or the bench becomes your new home address.

Karagümrük arrive with survival on their minds and a goalkeeper, Ivo Grbić, who has been among the league’s busiest. When one keeper is fighting confidence and the other is fighting fatigue, you get a nice little subplot before the first whistle.

Likely setups: crosses vs cover

Tekke’s Trabzonspor have generally looked stable this season, most often lining up in a 4-2-3-1. The plan is direct enough to explain to your non-football friends: get the ball wide, deliver crosses, and let Paul Onuachu do what tall strikers do best.

• Trabzonspor attacking idea: high-volume crossing to feed Onuachu, with Ernest Muçi as the main creator between the lines.
• Injuries shaping choices: Edin Višća is out for the season, Oleksandr Zubkov is expected back in early March, Stefan Savić is doubtful, and Anthony Nwakaeme may not be ready for 90 minutes.

Karagümrük boss Aleksandar Stanojević has tried a 4-4-2 lately for extra cover, but away form has been rough and they’ve conceded heavily over the season. They’ve also added Shavy Babicka on loan to boost the wing options, though he’s still settling in after previous injury issues.

• Karagümrük main outlets: David Datro Fofana and Serginho, with Babicka offering a fresh wide option.
• Absences: João Camacho is likely not ready, and Daniel Anthony Johnson remains sidelined.

Head to head notes that suggest goals

This fixture has leaned Trabzonspor in recent years, and it has not been shy about goals either. The last head to head on 2024-04-24 finished 3-2, and the reverse meeting earlier this season was reported as a seven-goal thriller. If you’re here for “quiet 0-0,” you may be in the wrong stadium.

NerdyTips betting view: odds, angles, and the model’s read

The betting odds reflect the gap: home win 1.422, draw 4.7, away win 8.5. The squad value comparison tells a similar story too—Trabzonspor at €99.40m versus Karagümrük at €15.68m. Money doesn’t score goals, but it usually buys the players who do.

Best bet (1X2): Home win

Our Trabzonspor vs Karagumruk prediction in the 1X2 market is clear: 1 (Trabzonspor to win) at 1.422, with a confidence rating of 10.0/10. The numbers behind it suggest Trabzonspor should control the match rather than chase it.

• Possession forecast: 64% Trabzonspor, 36% Karagümrük
• Shots forecast: 19 vs 7
• Shots on target: 6 vs 3
• Corners: 6 vs 2 (8 total)
• Yellow cards: 1 vs 1

Total goals lean: Over 2.5

For total goals, NerdyTips’ AI suggests over 2.5 goals at 1.65, with a trust score of 5.6. That trust level is more “worth a look” than “bet the house,” but it matches the recent goal-heavy head to head trend and the expectation that Trabzonspor create a lot.

Correct score pick

The model lands on 3-0 (half-time 1-0). If Onana is looking for a confidence reset, this is the kind of script he’d happily accept—preferably without any late “plot twists.”