Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Austria
Preview
Friday night under the lights at Sportplatz St. Johann promises a fascinating encounter between TSV St. Johann and Schwaz, two sides with contrasting recent fortunes but a shared knack for defying expectations. The oddsmakers lean toward the hosts (1.81), and while that might seem generous at first glance, a deeper dive into the numbers—and the quirks of this fixture—suggests there’s value in backing St. Johann.
Home advantage in the Regionalliga - West isn’t quite the fortress it used to be, with hosts winning just 41.3% of matches. But TSV St. Johann have made a habit of punching above their weight, especially when the stakes are high. Remember their 1-0 victory over Schwaz in 2023? They were massive underdogs at 4.55 odds that day, while Schwaz sat comfortably at 1.52. Fast forward to this season, and St. Johann’s gritty 2-2 draw against Bischofshofen (at 5.5 odds) further proves they thrive when underestimated.
Schwaz arrive with a reputation for being streaky travelers—their away form has been patchy at best, often struggling to impose their usual rhythm on hostile grounds. St. Johann, meanwhile, have built their success on defensive resilience and quick transitions. If they can weather the early pressure (as they did in that 2023 H2H), the game could unfold perfectly for their counterattacking style.
The AI’s predicted 2-1 scoreline feels plausible here, especially when you consider that 59.2% of league matches see over 2.5 goals. St. Johann’s matches tend to follow a pattern: a tight first half (the AI backs them for a 1-0 HT lead) before opening up as legs tire. With 77.5% of games surpassing 1.5 goals, the ‘Over 2.5’ tip at 1.57 odds makes statistical sense—even if the confidence level (3.7/10) hints at some volatility.
As of now, the referee remains TBD—perhaps the only truly unpredictable element in this matchup. St. Johann’s discipline has been decent, but Schwaz’s physicality in midfield could test the officiating patience. A few early cards might disrupt the flow, but given these teams’ tendencies, goals feel inevitable.
At 1.25 odds, the ‘1X’ (St. Johann win or draw) is the AI’s preferred play, and it’s hard to argue. Schwaz’s away woes combined with St. Johann’s knack for grinding out results—even against superior opposition—paint a clear picture. That 5.0/10 confidence rating leaves room for doubt, but history suggests St. Johann will at least avoid defeat.
So, what’s the verdict? Expect a nervy start, a St. Johann breakthrough before halftime, and a second half that delivers at least one more goal. Whether Schwaz can mount a comeback depends largely on which version of their away side shows up. But if recent trends hold, TSV St. Johann vs Schwaz will follow a familiar script: the hosts outperforming their odds, and the scoreline ticking past that 2.5-goal mark.
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1X -400
TSV St. Johann to win or draw with odds of -4001 -125
TSV St. Johann is expected to win with odds of -123Over 2.5 -175
At least 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -189
Both teams are expected to score1X&O1.5 -263
Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
2:1
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9
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3
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4
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 TSV S |
18-Apr-25
1:0
| Schwaz  |
| Schwaz |
09-Oct-24
0:3
| TSV S |
| Schwaz |
29-Mar-24
0:0
| TSV S |
| TSV S |
18-Aug-23
1:0
| Schwaz |
| Schwaz |
31-Mar-19
0:0
| TSV S |
| TSV S |
15-Aug-18
2:1
| Schwaz |
| TSV S |
13-Apr-18
3:0
| Schwaz |
| Schwaz |
08-Sep-17
0:1
| TSV S |
| TSV S |
25-Mar-17
0:0
| Schwaz |
| Schwaz |
15-Aug-16
3:1
| TSV S |
Austria - Regionalliga - West| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Austria | 29 | 70-24 | 69 |
| 2 |
Imst | 29 | 61-20 | 66 |
| 3 |
SVG Reichenau | 29 | 53-29 | 58 |
| 4 |
Hohenems | 29 | 55-35 | 53 |
| 5 |
Wals-Grünau | 29 | 40-31 | 47 |
| 6 |
Dornbirn | 29 | 55-34 | 47 |
| 7 |
Rheindorf Altach | 29 | 51-50 | 46 |
| 8 |
Kuchl | 29 | 56-45 | 42 |
| 9 |
Bischofshofen | 29 | 47-40 | 39 |
| 10 |
TSV St. Johann | 29 | 35-44 | 33 |
| 11 |
Pinzgau | 29 | 34-48 | 31 |
| 12 |
Schwaz | 29 | 30-43 | 30 |
| 13 |
Kitzbühel | 29 | 29-51 | 24 |
| 14 |
Lauterach | 29 | 27-72 | 23 |
| 15 |
Kufstein | 29 | 30-55 | 22 |
| 16 |
Röthis | 29 | 27-79 | 16 |
