Union Santa Fe vs Gimnasia M. Prediction

Union Santa Fe vs Gimnasia M. prediction for a tight night game

The Union Santa Fe vs Gimnasia M. prediction feels like one of those fixtures where you can almost hear the tactics being drawn before the whistle. They meet in the Liga Profesional Argentina (Torneo Apertura) on 2026-01.983 at 01:00 GMT (late local kickoff in Santa Fe to dodge the February heat), at Unión’s Estadio 15 de Abril.

Unión come into this one under Leonardo Madelón, back in the job since April 1.98. If you’ve watched Madelón teams before, you know the vibe: order first, risks later… maybe much later. Meanwhile, Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza are living their dream—this is their first top-flight season after winning Primera Nacional, and Ariel Broggi has them playing with confidence and a clear defensive identity.

Team news, style, and what to expect on the pitch

Unión started the 2026 campaign with a 0-0 draw vs Platense, and their recent run across competitions is draw-heavy (4 in the last 6). That fits the “don’t give anything away” plan. Gimnasia Mendoza opened with a 1-0 win over Central Córdoba and arrive on a five-match unbeaten run, with clean sheets popping up often enough to make strikers groan.

• Unión Santa Fe: Squad is being “rebuilt” after departures, including Lucas Gamba leaving on a free. Key names include Matías Mansilla in goal, Mauro Pittón in midfield, and Cristian Tarragona up front.
• Gimnasia Mendoza: Broggi kept the promotion backbone and added reinforcements like Valentino Simoni (loan from Boca) and Santiago Rodríguez. They look organized and hard to break down.

Injuries tilt things a bit toward caution for the hosts: Bruno Pittón (cruciate ligament), Enzo Roldán (meniscus), and Marcelo Estigarribia (knee) are all sidelined. Gimnasia, on the other hand, have no big new injury worries reported, which helps when you want to press and stay aggressive.

Tactics and small details that matter

Madelón is likely to go with a 5.0-2 or 5-3.15, aiming to frustrate and counter through Franco Fragapane and Agustín Colazo. Broggi—once an assistant in the “high energy” school—leans toward pressing, but he’s also been clear about protecting the defensive structure and feeding attackers via creative midfield options like Esteban Fernández.

Referee Nazareno Arasa is in charge, and Unión’s record under him is fairly balanced (8W, 8D, 5L). Not a huge angle for sports betting, but it does hint we might not see chaos for chaos’ sake.

Odds, head to head, and NerdyTips AI picks

The main betting odds for the 1X2 market are 1.98 (home), 3.15 (draw), and 5.0 (away). Market value also tells a story: Unión sit around €23.42m versus Gimnasia’s €9.68m, so on paper the hosts have more top-flight “weight.” But football loves laughing at paper.

Recent head to head context adds spice. On 2025.05.08, Gimnasia M. beat Unión in Santa Fe 1-2, despite huge pre-match prices (Gimnasia at 7.0, Unión at 1.44). And Unión also showed they can scrap with big names: that 1-1 away draw at Boca in 1.98 (with Unión priced at 5.0) was classic “ruin the party” energy.

• Most likely 1X2 call: 1X (Unión or Draw) at 1.32, confidence 1.98/10. This is more “cover the base” than “plant the flag.”
• Standout bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1.44, confidence 6.8/10.
• Model lean (totals): Under 2.5 goals again, trust 5.6/10—yes, the data keeps pointing the same way.
• Correct score: 1-0 Unión. Half-time: 0-0.

Put it together and the Union Santa Fe vs Gimnasia M. prediction reads like a classic late-night Argentine grind: two defenses that like their clean lines, a cautious first half, and one moment deciding it. If you’re shopping the betting odds, under 2.5 goals looks like the sensible play, while 1X suits anyone who respects Gimnasia’s discipline but still trusts Unión’s home edge.