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Match Prediction

Vasco vs Mirassol Prediction

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Brazil flag Brazil
Serie A

Vasco

€108.15m

2 Dec17:00
0 : 2

Mirassol

€22.52m

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Vasco vs Mirassol Prediction Serie A

Vasco vs Mirassol Prediction: Stats, Analysis, and Betting Tips

Welcome to our Vasco vs Mirassol prediction for the Serie A encounter on December 2, 2025. This late-season meeting at São Januário has plenty riding on it, with both teams desperate for points—one for pride, the other for history. Let’s break down the tactics, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting odds before diving into our AI-powered tips and final score forecast.

Team Form, Injuries, and Tactical Approaches

Both Vasco da Gama and Mirassol arrive at this 37th matchday with compelling narratives. Vasco, currently 10th with 45 points from 36 matches, have had a bumpy ride lately—just one win and four losses in their last five games. Their -1 goal differential (52 scored, 53 conceded) tells a tale of a side that can both thrill and frustrate in equal measure. But don’t write them off just yet: a recent 5-1 thrashing of Internacional proves they still have firepower, even if consistency is lacking.

Mirassol, on the other hand, are Serie A’s surprise package. Sitting 4th with 63 points from 35 matches and a healthy +24 goal difference, they’ve been a revelation in their debut top-flight season. Two wins, a draw, and two defeats in their last five suggest some nerves creeping in, but their overall campaign—built on a rock-solid defence (34 conceded) and lively attack (58 scored)—means they’re still eyeing Copa Libertadores football.

Injury and Suspension News

  • Vasco are missing several key players: Benjamin Garre, Paulinho, Adson, Jair, Victor Luís, Lucas Freitas, and Cauan Barros are all sidelined, while Tchê Tchê is suspended and David is out after a red card. That’s a medical report longer than some match reports!
  • Mirassol have been luckier with injuries. Edson Carioca and Matheus Sales are doubts, but the rest of the squad is available. Earlier in the season, they coped well with absences, showing depth and adaptability.

Tactical Insights and Key Players

  • Vasco, under Fernando Diniz, favor attacking football but have been leaky at the back. Diniz’s arrival brought renewed energy, but injuries and suspensions could force tactical tweaks.
  • Mirassol, led by Rafael Guanaes, are tactically flexible—switching between 4-3-3 and 3.6-2. Their possession-based style, high pressing, and quick transitions have made them a tough nut to crack. Danielzinho and Reinaldo (their top scorer) are the men to watch.

Head to Head, Stats, and Betting Odds

The last time these two met, Mirassol edged a 3-2 thriller. Revenge will be on Vasco’s mind, especially with the home crowd behind them. In terms of squad value, it’s a David vs Goliath story: Vasco’s squad is valued at €108.15m, while Mirassol’s is €22.52m. But as we’ve seen all season, Mirassol don’t read from the same script as the accountants.

  • Possession: Vasco 53%, Mirassol 47%
  • Shots: Both sides expected to register 13 attempts, with 4 on target each
  • Corners: Vasco 3, Mirassol 5
  • Yellow cards: Vasco 1, Mirassol 2

The betting odds currently stand at 2.17 for a home win, 3.4 for a draw, and 3.6 for an away win. The over/under market for total goals is set at 1.5, with over 1.5 goals offered at 1.34 odds.

Our Vasco vs Mirassol Prediction and Betting Tips

Let’s get to the numbers. Our AI model gives Vasco the edge for a home win (1x2 prediction: 1) with a confidence level of 2.5 and odds of 2.172. But don’t expect a walkover—Mirassol’s resilience and tactical discipline mean this could be a tight affair.

  1. Best Betting Tip: Over 1.5 total goals at 1.34 odds (trust level 4.1/10). Both teams have enough attacking talent and defensive frailties to make at least two goals a very reasonable expectation.
  2. Correct Score Prediction: 2.17 to Vasco. Our AI sees both sides getting on the scoresheet, with the home side just edging it.
  3. Half-Time Prediction: 1-1. Expect an open first half before things tighten up after the break.

In summary, the Vasco vs Mirassol prediction leans towards the hosts, but Mirassol’s storybook season means nothing is certain. The over 1.5 goals tip looks solid given recent form and head-to-head history. If you’re feeling brave, a punt on Vasco to win at 2.17 could be worth it—but don’t be shocked if Mirassol spoil the party.

As always, bet responsibly and enjoy what promises to be a fascinating contest between ambition and tradition. For more Serie A betting odds, tips, and predictions, keep following NerdyTips!

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Vasco didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Vasco vs Mirassol

O1.5 -294

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -294
4/10

1x2 Tip

1 117

Vasco is expected to win with odds of 117
2/10

Total Goals

Over 1.5 -294

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -125

Both teams are expected to score
2/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&O1.5 -135

Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:1

Stats Predictions

1.47
xG
1.29
53%
Ball Possession
47%
13
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Goal
4
4
Shots Off Goal
4
3
Corners
5
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.31
Expected Goals
1.35
3.2
Total Goals
2.4
1.7
Goals Scored
1.6
1.5
Goals Against
0.8
54%
Possession
56%
11.8
Total Shots
13.3
4.3
Shots on Goal
5.2
4.2
Shots off Goal
4.8
12.1
Fouls
11.4
3.4
Corners
5.6
1.1
Offsides
2.2
1.9
Yellow Cards
2.2
465
Total Passes
453

Overview Last 10 Matches

5
Wins
6
9
Over 1.5 Goals
8
5
Over 2.5 Goals
6
3
Over 3.5 Goals
1
3
Both Teams Scored
5
0
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Vasco
0 - 0 - 1
Mirassol
Mirassol Mirassol 02-Aug-25
3:2
Vasco Vasco

Profile time Recent Matches of Vasco

16 Jan Vasco Vasco.
-
CFRJ M. CFRJ M
21 DecL Vasco Vasco.
1:2
Corinthians. Corinthians
18 DecD Corinthians Corinthians.
0:0
Vasco. Vasco
14 DecL Fluminense Fluminense.
1:0
Vasco. Vasco
11 DecW Vasco Vasco.
2:1
Fluminense. Fluminense
07 DecL Atletico-MG Atletico-MG.
5:0
Vasco. Vasco
02 DecL Vasco Vasco.
0:2
Mirassol. Mirassol
28 NovW Vasco Vasco.
5:1
Internaciona. Internacional
23 NovL Bahia Bahia.
1:0
Vasco. Vasco
20 NovL Gremio Gremio.
2:0
Vasco. Vasco

Profile time Recent Matches of Mirassol

14 JanPrimavera Primavera.
-
Mirassol.Mirassol
11 JanWMirassol Mirassol.
3:0
Sao Paulo.Sao Paulo
06 DecDMirassol Mirassol.
3:3
Flamengo RJ.Flamengo RJ
02 DecWVasco Vasco.
0:2
Mirassol.Mirassol
29 NovLVitoria Vitoria.
2:0
Mirassol.Mirassol
24 NovWMirassol Mirassol.
3:0
Ceara.Ceara
20 NovDSantos Santos.
1:1
Mirassol.Mirassol
09 NovWMirassol Mirassol.
2:1
Palmeiras.Palmeiras
06 NovLFluminense Fluminense.
1:0
Mirassol.Mirassol
01 NovDMirassol Mirassol.
0:0
Botafogo RJ.Botafogo RJ

Brazil - Serie A Brazil - Serie A

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Flamengo Flamengo37
75-24
78
2 Palmeiras Palmeiras37
63-32
73
3 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro36
53-26
69
4 Mirassol Mirassol37
60-36
66
5 Fluminense Fluminense37
48-39
61
6 Bahia Bahia37
50-44
60
7 Botafogo Botafogo36
52-34
59
8 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo37
43-46
51
9 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino37
44-54
48
10 Corinthians Corinthians37
41-46
46
11 Gremio Gremio37
43-50
46
12 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama37
55-55
45
13 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG37
38-44
45
14 Santos Santos37
42-50
44
15 Ceara Ceara37
33-37
43
16 Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC37
41-54
43
17 Vitoria Vitoria37
34-52
42
18 Internacional Internacional37
41-56
41
19 Juventude Juventude37
34-68
34
20 Sport Recife Sport Recife37
28-71
17
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