Venezia vs Carrarese Prediction

Venezia vs Carrarese prediction: goals, form, and value edge

The Venezia vs Carrarese prediction for Saturday, January 31, 2026 (14:00 GMT) lands in one of football’s most distinctive settings: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Venice, a historic ground where some supporters arrive by boat and visiting teams often arrive by problem-solving. It is Matchday 22 in Serie B, and the stakes are very real: Venezia are chasing first place, while Carrarese are trying to keep their grip on the promotion play-off conversation.

Context, form, and why this fixture matters

Venezia start the weekend 2nd with 44 points, just one behind leaders Frosinone, and they bring a ruthless run of results into this match. They have won six in a row, and their latest outing was a lively 5-2 win over Mantova on January 24. Even when matches get messy, Venezia have kept scoring: they have hit the net in 15 straight games, which is exactly what you want to see if you like goal-based markets in sports betting.

Carrarese arrive in 9th on 29 points and are unbeaten in four. Their most recent result, a 3-0 win against Empoli on January 23, is the kind of statement that tells you they are not here just to admire the canals. They have enough structure to stay competitive, and enough speed in transition to hurt teams that over-commit.

Tactical match-up: possession vs transitions

Giovanni Stroppa’s Venezia have leaned on a 3-5-2 that prioritizes possession, width, and steady pressure. At home, that approach has been close to a cheat code: Venezia have turned the Penzo into a points factory, taking around 90% of their wins there this season. Expect them to push wing-backs high and build long spells in Carrarese’s half.

Antonio Calabro’s Carrarese usually set up in a 3-1-4-2 or 3-4-2-1. His comments have been consistent: Venezia have “big” quality, but Carrarese want to “stay in the game” and strike on transitions. That idea matters even more now because the visitors have injury issues that can impact their defensive rotations and late-game energy.

Team news that shapes the plan

• Venezia injuries: Alessandro Plizzari (patellar tendon), Marin Šverko, and Bjarki Bjarkason are out.
• Venezia transfers: Junior Ligue arrived from FC Zurich, and Marko Farji joined from Strømsgodset; Cheick Condé has gone on loan to Blau Weiss Linz.
• Carrarese injuries: Mattia Finotto (cruciate ligament) is out; defenders Bartosz Salamon, Marco Imperiale, and Devid Eugene Bouah are also sidelined.
• Carrarese transfer: Leonardo Capezzi was sold permanently earlier this week.

Head to head angle and the “revenge” subplot

For head to head context, Calabro has already reminded everyone that Carrarese beat Venezia 3-2 in October 2025. That result also gives this match a clear narrative: Venezia’s last league defeat came in that reverse fixture, so the home side will treat this as a chance to “correct the file” in front of their own crowd.

Venezia vs Carrarese prediction: AI picks, odds, and best bets

Now for the numbers that matter to sports betting readers. The 1x2 betting odds are straightforward: Home win 1.5, Draw 4.75, Away win 7.25. Those prices line up with the squad-value gap too: Venezia sit at €53.03m versus Carrarese at €17.90m, a financial difference that often shows up in depth, substitutions, and shot volume.

What NerdyTips AI expects in the match flow

• Possession: Venezia 63% vs Carrarese 37%
• Shots: Venezia 19 vs Carrarese 8
• Shots on goal: Venezia 6 vs Carrarese 2
• Corners: Venezia 5, Carrarese 4 (total 9)
• Yellow cards: Venezia 1, Carrarese 3

This profile suggests a game played mostly on Carrarese’s side of the pitch: Venezia circulating the ball, creating repeated entries, and forcing defensive actions (often booked actions). If Carrarese are going to take something, it likely comes from a transition or set-piece spell rather than sustained control.

Best bet: goals market over the 1x2

Our standout tip is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a confidence of 7.8/10. It fits the expected shot totals, Venezia’s scoring streak, and the idea that Carrarese will have moments to counter even if they defend deep for long stretches. The AI 1x2 leans to Home win (trust 5.7, odds 1.5), but the goals angle looks cleaner because it can still land even if the match gets weird for 20 minutes.

Score picks and how they connect to the stats

• Half-time expected score: 2-0
• Full-time predicted score: 3-1

That 3-1 fits the shot-on-target gap (6 vs 2) and the possession tilt. It also respects Carrarese’s recent confidence: they are capable of nicking one, especially if Venezia push hard early and leave space later.

One final reminder for anyone browsing betting odds: football loves surprises. Venezia themselves were part of a famous one on 2025-03-16, when Napoli (priced at 1.5) could only draw 0-0. Carrarese have also delivered a proper away shock, winning 0-2 at Spezia on 2025-08-24 at 5.05. So yes, the Venezia vs Carrarese prediction points to the home side and goals—but keep your staking sensible, because even in Venice, not everything goes according to the map.