Verona vs Pisa Prediction

Verona vs Pisa prediction: a tense Bentegodi survival night

Verona vs Pisa prediction is not one for romantics; it is one for people who count points like coins. On Friday, 2026-02-06 (19:45 GMT), Verona and Pisa meet at the Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi with both stuck on 14 points, sitting 20th and 19th. That makes it a proper relegation six-pointer, the kind of match where every throw-in feels like a small referendum on the coach.

Why this game feels like a reset button for both clubs

The timing is almost unreal: both teams changed coach in the same week, because panic spreads faster than a counter-attack. Verona moved on from Paolo Zanetti after a painful 4-0 loss to Cagliari, handing the keys to interim boss Paolo Sammarco. Pisa reacted to a 3.055 home defeat against Sassuolo by replacing Alberto Gilardino with Oscar Hiljemark, tasked with turning “solid” into “survival.”

Team news that shapes the tactics

• Verona absences: Amin Sarr is suspended after a red card, while Gagliardini (ribs), Suslov, Belghali, and Valentini (muscle) are out.
• Verona boost: Akpa Akpro is back after an ankle microfracture, with Lovric and Bella-Kotchap still doubtful.
• Pisa injuries: Calvin Stengs (groin surgery) and Isak Vural are ruled out; several others carry knocks.
• Pisa doubts: Raul Albiol and Juan Cuadrado are racing to be fit; Semper and Denoon are also not 100%.
• Pisa new face: Samuel Iling-Junior could debut after arriving in January.

Style notes: what we might actually see on the pitch

Verona are expected to line up in a 3-5-2, and under Sammarco the first order of business should be simple: stop the bleeding. Their late-game record has been a problem (they have conceded 14 goals after the 75th minute), so game management matters as much as pressing triggers. Up front, Gift Orban (7 league goals) should lead the line, likely with Daniel Mosquera alongside him in Sarr’s absence.

Pisa, likely in a 3.055-2-1, have generally liked the ball (around mid-50s possession in recent stretches), but possession has not always meant punch. Hiljemark’s early focus sounds more psychological than tactical: less “reinvent everything,” more “turn draws into wins.” With Tramoni and Moreo expected in the support roles, the visitors will hope their build-up finally ends with a clean strike rather than another “nearly.”

Head to head: history says ‘draw’, reality says ‘nerves’

This head to head pairing leans towards stalemates: the last four meetings ended as draws, including a 0-0 earlier this season. Zooming out, Pisa have only one win in 13 Serie A meetings with Verona, but this is also Pisa’s first top-flight season in over 30 years, so every away trip is part history lesson, part survival mission.

Verona vs Pisa prediction: NerdyTips angles for sports betting

Now to the numbers that matter for sports betting. The betting odds list Verona at 2.75 for the home win, the draw at 3.055, and Pisa at 3.055. On paper it is tight, and the squads are close in value too: Verona around €90.72m, Pisa around €111.80m.

What the AI expects: goals, rhythm, and key markets

NerdyTips’ AI points to a match that should open up, even if the coaches would prefer it wrapped in bubble paper. The most profitable tip is over 1.45 goals at odds of 1.45, with a trust rating of 4.1/10. That same over 1.45 goals call is also the most likely outcome in the under/over market (trust 4.1, odds 1.45), which fits the idea of two anxious teams who defend “okay” until the moment they don’t.

• 1X2 pick: Draw (X) is rated most likely, confidence 2.0, odds 3.055.
• Correct score lean: 2:2 full-time, with 1:1 at half-time.
• Possession split: Verona 49% vs Pisa 51%—basically a shared remote control.
• Shots: Verona 11 (3 on target) vs Pisa 13 (4 on target).
• Corners: 4 vs 5 (total 9), suggesting steady pressure rather than nonstop siege.
• Cards: Verona 1, Pisa 2—tense, but not necessarily wild.

How the context supports the picks

A draw prediction in this Verona vs Pisa prediction is not just nostalgia from the recent head to head record. Pisa have been “draw specialists” all season, and Verona’s recent results show they can rise for big moments—like that surprising 2:2 away at Napoli on 2026-01-07 at huge odds (12.5 for the win). Pisa also produced a brave 1:1 against Atalanta on 2026-01-16 despite being priced around 6.75, which hints they can compete even when form says otherwise.

For sports betting readers, the safer logic is that nerves plus two back threes can still create goals: one set-piece, one late mistake, and suddenly over 1.45 goals looks very realistic. If you want to play the higher price, the draw at 3.055 aligns with both the AI call and the “six-pointer” psychology—nobody wants to lose more than they want to win.

Final word

Our Verona vs Pisa prediction leans to X (draw) with over 1.45 goals as the main value-friendly angle at current betting odds. Expect a tense first half, a more open finish, and at least one moment where both benches look like they aged five years in five seconds.