Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction

Villarreal vs Valencia prediction for a tight derby night

The Villarreal vs Valencia prediction for Sunday, 2026-02-22 (20:00 GMT) starts with one simple idea: this derby usually asks you to be patient. It’s the Derby de la Comunitat at Estadio de la Cerámica, and while Villarreal are flying high in 3rd, Valencia arrive with that “we’ve survived worse” energy that makes games messy in the best (and worst) ways for sports betting.

Team context, tactics, and why this may stay close

Villarreal’s season has been strong enough to make Champions League talk feel normal again, but a recent slip (the 2-1 loss to Getafe) took a bit of shine off. Add a rescheduled midweek game vs Levante on Feb 18, and Marcelino’s squad depth gets a proper stress test just days before this one.

On paper, Villarreal’s squad value (€255.80m) also dwarfs Valencia’s (€169.50m), but the team sheet matters more than the price tag right now. Villarreal are dealing with real availability issues: Juan Foyth is out for the season, Thomas Partey is sidelined, Gerard Moreno is a big doubt, Logan Costa and Willy Kambwala remain out, and Alfonso Pedraza is suspended. That’s a lot of missing pieces for a team that wants control.

• Marcelino is still expected to lean on a compact 4-4-2, using Nicolas Pépé for speed and Alberto Moleiro for ideas between the lines.
• With center-back options thin, Pape Gueye may have to cover defensively if things get weird.
• Villarreal have been a “late goals” team (scoring in the second half in 88% of matches), so don’t panic if it looks quiet early.

Valencia sit 14th and still look for week-to-week consistency, but a 2-0 win over Levante on Feb 15 gave them a morale boost. Carlos Corberán has been praised for building a resilient mentality, and it shows in how they manage matches when the squad is patched together.

• Dimitri Foulquier’s surgery has forced squad admin changes, and Valencia have even explored an emergency signing (Renzo Saravia) under La Liga’s long-term injury rule.
• Diego López is a serious doubt, Danjuma is out, Thierry Correia is being managed, and Eray Cömert is a late test.
• Corberán has used Unai Núñez as a makeshift right-back at times, which tells you how improvised this can get.

In the last head to head (2025-02-15), it finished 1-1, and the script feels similar: Villarreal more structure, Valencia more stubbornness.

Villarreal vs Valencia prediction: bets, betting odds, and AI tips

Let’s talk betting odds. The market has Villarreal as the clear favorite: Home win 1.75, Draw 4.0, Away win 5.0. That lines up with our Villarreal vs Valencia prediction that the safest direction is backing Villarreal not to lose, rather than forcing a straight home win.

Main NerdyTips angle: goals may be limited

The best tip from NerdyTips is Under 3.5 goals at 1.41, with a trust level of 4.0/10. Our model agrees: Under 3.5 is also the top call in the under/over market (trust 4.0, odds 1.41). With Villarreal’s strong home defending (conceding around 0.67 goals per home match this season) and Valencia’s injury list, the “not too many goals” story writes itself.

1.2 and safer match betting options

• 1X (Villarreal or Draw) is our most likely 1.2 direction (confidence 2.0) at odds of 1.2.
• Full-time lean: Villarreal edge it, but don’t expect fireworks.

Projected game stats and score picks

• Expected final score: 1:0
• Half-time score prediction: 0:0
• Possession: Villarreal 55% vs Valencia 45%
• Shots: Villarreal 11 vs Valencia 8 (on target: 4 vs 1)
• Corners: 3-3 (total 6)
• Yellow cards: 2-2 (yes, the derby tax)

For sports betting, that points to a controlled Villarreal performance, a cautious first half, and a second-half push. If you’re playing the markets, the sensible route is building around Under 3.5 goals and a safety net like 1X. The straight home win at 1.75 is playable, but in a derby with this many missing players, keeping a bit of protection is rarely a bad idea.