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Match Prediction

VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap Prediction

Finished
Netherlands flag Netherlands
Eerste Divisie

VVV Venlo

€6.40m

28 Apr14:00
3 : 1

De Graafschap

€9.02m

Preview

VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap Prediction Eerste Divisie

VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap Prediction: A Tight Battle in the Eerste Divisie

When VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap meet on April 28, 2025, at the Covebo Stadion - De Koel, the stakes may not involve a title race, but the betting markets suggest a fascinating contest. The odds paint a picture of a closely fought encounter, with De Graafschap slight favorites (1.9) despite Venlo’s home advantage. Our VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap prediction leans toward the visitors, but let’s unpack why—and whether the numbers back the hype.

Why the AI Backs De Graafschap

NerdyTips’ AI gives De Graafschap a modest 1.7/10 trust rating for the win, but the underlying stats make a compelling case. Here’s the breakdown:

  • Standings Gap: De Graafschap sit 6th (59 pts), a whopping 21 points clear of 14th-placed VVV Venlo (38 pts). Consistency matters, and the visitors have it.
  • Squad Value: With a €9.02m roster compared to Venlo’s €6.40m, De Graafschap’s talent edge could tip the scales in tight moments.
  • Possession & Efficiency: While possession is nearly even (53% vs. 47%), De Graafschap averages 16 shots per game to Venlo’s 14—hinting at sharper attacking intent.

Yet, history adds intrigue: Venlo won the last head-to-head 2-1. So why buck the trend? Simple: current form trumps nostalgia. Venlo’s home record (14th place) lacks intimidation, and De Graafschap’s midfield control could turn the Koel into a chilly evening for the hosts.

The Under 3.55 Goals Case: A Safer Bet?

The AI strongly favors under 3.55 goals (4.8/10 trust, 1.62 odds), and the stats whisper it’s the savvy pick:

  1. League Trends: Only 36.4% of Eerste Divisie games exceed 3.55 goals, while 58.2% surpass 2.5—suggesting moderation is likely.
  2. Defensive Discipline: Just 1 yellow card predicted per team. This isn’t a derby; it’s a tactical chess match.
  3. Shot Efficiency: Both teams average 4 on-target attempts per game. Precision over volume often means fewer goals.

Referee E. Blank’s whistle may see less action than the odds suggest. If you’re hunting for betting tips, the under feels like the smarter play—even if it lacks fireworks.

Contrasting Home vs. Away Dynamics

Eerste Divisie home wins hover at 44.3%, with away victories at 30.6%. But this clash defies the norm: De Graafschap’s away form (backed by that 53% possession stat) could neutralize Venlo’s shaky home aura. The AI’s projected 0-1 scoreline (HT: 0-1) reflects a game where patience pays—and where one clinical moment might decide it.

Final Verdict: Trust the Data, But Stay Cautious

Our VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap prediction aligns with the AI’s lean: a narrow away win (1.9 odds) and under 3.55 goals (1.62 odds) are the standout picks. Yet, football loves chaos. Venlo’s head-to-head win last time is a reminder that past ghosts linger. For bettors, the numbers point to De Graafschap—but in the Eerste Divisie, surprises are never off the table.

So, will the Koel witness an upset or a textbook away triumph? The stats say the latter, but the beauty of the game is that it’s never just about the numbers.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

De Graafschap didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap

U3.5 -161

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -161
4/10

1x2 Tip

2 -111

De Graafschap is expected to win with odds of -111
1/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -161

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

No 157

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U5.5 -244

Away win/draw and under 5.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:1

Stats Predictions

47%
Ball Possession
53%
14
Total Shots
16
4
Shots on Goal
4
5
Shots Off Goal
6
5
Corners
5
1
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

3.1
Total Goals
2.6
1.3
Goals Scored
1.7
1.8
Goals Against
0.9
48%
Possession
50%
14
Total Shots
14.8
4.2
Shots on Goal
5.1
5.6
Shots off Goal
5.8
13.2
Fouls
10.2
5.8
Corners
4.2
2.1
Offsides
1.9
1.9
Yellow Cards
1.43
0.1
Red Cards
0
349
Total Passes
413

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
6
7
Over 1.5 Goals
8
7
Over 2.5 Goals
4
6
Over 3.5 Goals
2
5
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

VVV Venlo
11 - 0 - 5
De Graafschap
VVV Venlo VVV Venlo 28-Apr-25
3:1
Graafschap De Graafschap
De Graafschap Graafschap 01-Dec-24
3:1
VVV Venlo VVV Venlo
De Graafschap Graafschap 26-Jan-24
3:0
VVV Venlo VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo VVV Venlo 01-Sep-23
2:0
Graafschap De Graafschap
VVV Venlo VVV Venlo 12-May-23
2:1
Graafschap De Graafschap
De Graafschap Graafschap 12-Aug-22
1:2
VVV Venlo VVV Venlo
De Graafschap Graafschap 09-Jan-22
1:2
VVV Venlo VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo VVV Venlo 22-Oct-21
1:2
Graafschap De Graafschap
VVV Venlo VVV Venlo 20-Apr-19
4:1
Graafschap De Graafschap
De Graafschap Graafschap 15-Sep-18
1:2
VVV Venlo VVV Venlo

Profile time Recent Matches of VVV Venlo

05 DecW Waalwijk Waalwijk.
1:2
Venlo. Venlo

Profile time Recent Matches of Graafschap

08 DecJong Utrecht Jong Utrecht.
-
De Graafscha.De Graafschap
04 DecWVitesse Vitesse.
1:2
De Graafscha.De Graafschap

Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Team Matches Goals Points
1 FC Volendam FC Volendam38
87-48
82
2 Excelsior Excelsior38
74-38
74
3 Cambuur Cambuur38
63-42
71
4 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag38
69-47
70
5 Dordrecht Dordrecht38
69-46
68
6 De Graafschap De Graafschap38
73-50
65
7 Telstar Telstar38
69-47
61
8 Emmen Emmen38
56-53
56
9 Den Bosch Den Bosch38
53-48
55
10 Jong AZ Jong AZ38
69-63
52
11 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven38
58-64
51
12 Roda Roda38
49-57
49
13 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport38
53-61
46
14 VVV Venlo VVV Venlo38
44-69
41
15 MVV MVV38
52-59
40
16 FC OSS FC OSS38
31-61
38
17 Jong Ajax Jong Ajax38
37-52
36
18 Jong PSV Jong PSV38
55-86
30
19 Jong Utrecht Jong Utrecht38
31-82
23
20 Vitesse Vitesse38
54-73
5
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