Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Belgium
Preview
Mark the date: 2.256-02-07 at 15:00 GMT, when Waregem host Dender at the Elindus Arena. This Waregem vs Dender prediction sits in that familiar “six-pointer” zone, where the table math feels personal and every loose pass has consequences. Round 24 arrives with both sides needing breathing room near the bottom, and the mood is set for a practical, slightly nervous afternoon.
Waregem come in stuck in a rough spell, with just one win in their last six league games and a frustrating 0-1 home loss to Westerlo on January 31. Still, they are not an easy team to push around in Waregem: they’ve avoided defeat in 20 of their last 25 home matches, which is exactly the kind of “not pretty, but useful” stat you want when points are heavy.
Dender, meanwhile, are living in the danger zone at the foot of the league. A narrow 1-2 loss to Genk on February 1 fits the pattern: competitive moments, not enough reward. Their away record is the loudest warning sign—no wins in 18 of their last 20 on the road—so even a draw would feel like a small heist.
Waregem under Sven Vandenbroeck often lean into wide play, typically in a 3.5-3 or 4-3-3. Expect overlaps, crosses, and a steady effort to pin Dender back. The concern is at the other end: Waregem haven’t kept a clean sheet in nine matches, so their attacking intent can leave space for counters.
Dender coach Hayk Milkon has generally preferred a defensive-first plan. The 3.5-2 shape is designed to crowd the midfield, slow the rhythm, and break forward when the opponent overcommits. They have shown a tendency to “take the draw and run” away from home, and given the table, you can see why.
For Waregem, veteran striker Jelle Vossen remains the headline threat, especially when chances turn into shots on target. Marley Aké brings creativity between the lines, and Anosike Ementa offers a physical focal point that can make second balls and set pieces dangerous.
For Dender, Bruny Nsimba has been the main creator, while Alireza Jahanbakhsh adds calm decision-making in the final third. David Toshevski is the one who tends to arrive where rebounds and cutbacks land—useful in a game that may be decided by one messy moment.
The head to head trend slightly favors Waregem historically (4 wins to Dender’s 3 across the last 10 competitive meetings). Their most recent meeting on 2.254-10-29 finished 2-1 to Waregem, a scoreline that fits the expectation of a close match with limited total goals. And both sides have proof they can ruin a favorite’s day: Waregem drew away at Club Brugge in 2.252 (1-1) at huge odds, while Dender just held Anderlecht to a 0-0 away draw on 2.256-01-25.
The market prices this as a slight home lean: betting odds show Waregem at 2.25, the draw at 3.5, and Dender at 3.5. Squad value also nudges home (Waregem €22.40m vs Dender €18.80m), but the match dynamics scream “don’t expect a stroll.”
So why does the best Waregem vs Dender prediction land on under 3.5? The possession forecast favors Waregem (58% to 42%), but the shot map looks balanced: 13-12 total shots, and 4-4 on target. That often creates a match with “activity” rather than a goal rush—pressure, blocks, and saves, but not constant finishing quality. Corners are projected at 4-2 (six total), another hint at Waregem territory without necessarily turning into a scoreline explosion.
Discipline could matter too: the model expects more yellow cards for Dender (3 vs 1), which lines up with a defensive away plan that relies on stopping transitions. Give away enough free-kicks around Vossen, and you’re flirting with trouble.
In short: Waregem have the home platform to edge it, but the smarter, steadier lane is still the under 3.5 total goals. A few tense spells, a couple of clear chances each, and a match that feels like survival football—because it is.
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Waregem didn't play better in the last H2H match!
U3.5 -294
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -2941 125
Waregem is expected to win with odds of 125Under 3.5 -294
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -128
Both teams are expected to score1X&U4.5 -175
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
2:1
|
|
3
-
2
-
0
|
|
 Waregem |
07-Feb-26
1:0
| Dender  |
| Dender |
07-Nov-25
2:2
| Waregem |
| Waregem |
29-Oct-24
2:1
| Dender |
| Dender |
13-Apr-24
1:4
| Waregem |
Recent Matches of Waregem| 08 Mar | L |
Waregem
| 0 |
St. Liege
| 1 |
| 28 Feb | L |
KV Mechelen
| 2 |
Waregem
| 1 |
| 22 Feb | L |
Waregem
| 2 |
Anderlecht
| 4 |
| 15 Feb | L |
St. Truiden
| 3 |
Waregem
| 2 |
| 07 Feb | W |
Waregem
| 1 |
Dender
| 0 |
| 31 Jan | L |
Waregem
| 0 |
Westerlo
| 1 |
| 24 Jan | L |
Club B
| 4 |
Waregem
| 3 |
| 17 Jan | W |
Waregem
| 2 |
Genk
| 1 |
| 09 Jan | L |
Sion
| 3 |
Waregem
| 2 |
| 27 Dec | L |
Antwerp
| 2 |
Waregem
| 1 |
Recent Matches of Dender
| 07 Mar | D | Dender |
2 |  Charleroi |
2 |
| 01 Mar | D |  Cercle B |
0 | Dender |
0 |
| 21 Feb | L | Dender |
1 |  St. Truiden |
4 |
| 14 Feb | L |  Leuven |
3 | Dender |
2 |
| 07 Feb | L | Waregem |
1 | Dender |
0 |
| 01 Feb | L | Dender |
1 |  Genk |
2 |
| 25 Jan | D |  Anderlecht |
0 | Dender |
0 |
| 18 Jan | W | Dender |
1 |  Antwerp |
0 |
| 14 Jan | L | Dender |
0 |  Union S |
2 |
| 09 Jan | D |  Kortrijk |
0 | Dender |
0 |
Belgium - Jupiler Pro League| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Union St. | 27 | 43-15 | 57 |
| 2 |
Club Brugge KV | 27 | 51-32 | 56 |
| 3 |
St. Truiden | 27 | 44-30 | 54 |
| 4 |
Anderlecht | 27 | 39-33 | 43 |
| 5 |
KV Mechelen | 27 | 36-30 | 42 |
| 6 |
Genk | 27 | 39-40 | 38 |
| 7 |
Gent | 27 | 41-41 | 36 |
| 8 |
Standard Liege | 27 | 25-34 | 35 |
| 9 |
KVC Westerlo | 27 | 34-38 | 35 |
| 10 |
Antwerp | 27 | 30-30 | 33 |
| 11 |
Charleroi | 27 | 36-37 | 33 |
| 12 |
Zulte Waregem | 27 | 37-44 | 29 |
| 13 |
OH Leuven | 27 | 29-42 | 28 |
| 14 |
Cercle Brugge | 27 | 34-40 | 28 |
| 15 |
RAAL La | 27 | 22-31 | 26 |
| 16 |
Dender | 27 | 21-44 | 18 |
