Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Ireland
Waterford
€2.38m
Derry City
-
Preview
Friday night football in the Premier Division brings us an intriguing encounter as Waterford host Derry City at the Waterford Regional Sports Centre. Our Waterford vs Derry City prediction leans toward the visitors, but as the odds suggest, this won’t be a walk in the park. With Derry priced at 2.0 for an away win and Waterford at 3.58, the market hints at a contest where margins could be razor-thin. Let’s break down why the smart money might be on Derry to avoid defeat—and why Waterford could still spring a surprise.
Derry’s recent form and underlying stats make them the safer pick here. Sitting seventh with 14 points, they’ve shown more consistency than Waterford (9 points, ninth place), and our AI gives them an 8.5/10 confidence rating to avoid defeat (X2 at 1.28 odds). Their slight possession advantage (53% vs. 47%) and sharper chance creation (13 shots per game vs. Waterford’s 8) suggest they’ll control the tempo. Given that league matches see both teams score just 39.8% of the time, Derry’s defensive discipline could prove decisive.
Historically, Derry also have the head-to-head momentum. They edged Waterford 1-0 last August, and while Waterford pulled off a shock 2-1 away win in February, that result feels more like an outlier. Derry’s thirst for points—akin to a Friday night in Temple Bar—should drive them to grind out a result.
While the betting odds favor Derry, Waterford shouldn’t be written off. Their February victory over Derry at 7.0 odds proved they can punch above their weight. If they replicate that energy at home, they could disrupt Derry’s rhythm. However, their lack of attacking firepower (just 8 shots per game) and shaky home record (only 37.8% of league matches are won by hosts) make them underdogs for a reason.
The total goals market also leans toward a cagey affair. With under 3.5 goals priced at 1.25 odds (4.7/10 confidence), this isn’t likely to be a goal-fest. Waterford’s best chance might lie in set-pieces or a moment of individual brilliance—but Derry’s organization makes that a tall order.
All signs point toward a low-scoring, tactical duel with Derry edging it. Our predicted scoreline of 0-2 (0-1 at halftime) aligns with their defensive strength and Waterford’s struggles in front of goal. While the head-to-head history shows Waterford can defy expectations, Derry’s consistency and hunger for points make them the smarter pick. For bettors, the X2 market (Derry to avoid defeat) at 1.28 odds feels like the safest play, while under 3.5 goals is another solid angle.
In short: Derry’s slight superiority in key metrics justifies their favoritism, but as we’ve seen before, Waterford won’t go down without a fight.
Read More
X2 -357
Derry City to win or draw with odds of -3572 100
Derry City is expected to win with odds of 100Under 3.5 -400
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchNo -115
At least one team is not expected to scoreX2&U4.5 -213
Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
0:2
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4
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3
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11
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 Derry City |
04-Jul-25
7:2
| Waterford  |
| Waterford |
25-Apr-25
2:1
| Derry City |
| Derry City |
28-Feb-25
1:2
| Waterford |
| Waterford |
23-Aug-24
0:1
| Derry City |
| Derry City |
03-Jun-24
3:0
| Waterford |
| Waterford |
26-Apr-24
0:2
| Derry City |
| Derry City |
08-Mar-24
3:0
| Waterford |
| Waterford |
02-Nov-21
2:2
| Derry City |
| Derry City |
02-Jul-21
2:0
| Waterford |
| Waterford |
21-May-21
0:1
| Derry City |
Ireland - Premier Division| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Shamrock Rover | 36 | 56-33 | 66 |
| 2 |
Derry City | 36 | 52-39 | 63 |
| 3 |
Shelbourne | 36 | 48-37 | 59 |
| 4 |
Bohemians | 36 | 48-39 | 54 |
| 5 |
St Patrick's A | 36 | 42-32 | 52 |
| 6 |
Drogheda Unite | 36 | 38-38 | 51 |
| 7 |
Sligo Rovers | 36 | 42-54 | 41 |
| 8 |
Galway United | 36 | 37-44 | 39 |
| 9 |
Waterford | 36 | 41-60 | 39 |
| 10 |
Cork City | 36 | 33-61 | 24 |
