Wexford vs Dundalk Prediction

Wexford vs Dundalk Prediction: Can Underdogs Upset the Odds at Ferrycarrig Park?

Welcome to your expert Wexford vs Dundalk prediction for the First Division fixture on May 30, 2025, at Ferrycarrig Park. This is more than just another Friday night in Ireland’s football calendar; it’s a meeting of two clubs separated by history, ambition, and—most starkly—market value. With Wexford valued at a modest €25K and Dundalk towering at €2.03M, the numbers alone tell a story of underdogs versus heavyweights. But as recent results show, football rarely reads from the script.

Market Value Mismatch: More Than Just Numbers

The gulf in market value between these sides is as wide as the Slaney itself. Dundalk, with their €2.03M squad, have long been a force in Irish football, while Wexford’s €25K valuation reflects their status as perennial battlers. Historically, this disparity has translated into Dundalk dominating the head to head record, often controlling possession and dictating tempo. Yet, this season’s First Division has been anything but predictable, and Wexford’s recent form hints at a side unafraid of reputations.

Recent Form: Surprises on Both Sides

• Wexford stunned Cobh Ramblers with a 1-3 away win (pre-match odds 5.0), defying expectations and showcasing a newfound resilience.


• Dundalk ground out a 1-1 draw against Galway United (odds 10.03), a result that highlighted their defensive solidity but also a lack of cutting edge up front.

These results add an intriguing layer to the Wexford vs Dundalk prediction. While Dundalk remain favorites, Wexford’s underdog grit and recent upset suggest they won’t roll over easily.

League Trends: What the Stats Say

Ireland’s First Division has been a haven for tight contests and low-scoring affairs:

• Home wins: 36.0%


• Away wins: 28.8%


• Draws: 35.3%


• Both teams to score (BTTS): 45.0%


• Over 1.57 total goals: 65.3%


• Over 2.5 total goals: 45.0%


• Over 3.5 total goals: 27.1%

These figures paint a picture of a league where margins are slim and defenses often come out on top. With Dundalk’s reputation for defensive resilience and Wexford’s pragmatic approach, the stage is set for a game where chances are at a premium.

AI Predictions & Betting Odds: Where’s the Value?

1. 1X2 Prediction: Dundalk to win (Odds: 1.57, Confidence: 1.57)


2. Under 3.5 Goals: Top pick (Odds: 1.39, Confidence: 6.9/10)


3. Predicted Score: 0-1 to Dundalk (Half-time: 0-0)

The AI leans heavily towards a Dundalk victory, but not a goal-fest. The under 3.5 goals market stands out as the most reliable bet, with a high trust score of 6.8/10 on NerdyTips. This aligns perfectly with league-wide scoring trends and both teams’ recent form—Dundalk’s defense is tough to breach, while Wexford, despite their upset win, rarely run riot in front of goal.

Wexford vs Dundalk Prediction: Final Thoughts

So, what does all this mean for your Wexford vs Dundalk prediction? The market value gap is glaring, but Wexford’s recent heroics show they’re not just here to make up the numbers. Dundalk’s experience and squad depth make them rightful favorites, yet their recent draw suggests they might have to grind for all three points.

• Best Bet: Under 3.5 total goals (Odds: 1.39, Trust score: 6.8/10)


• Value Angle: Dundalk to win, but expect a narrow margin


• Score Prediction: 0-1 Dundalk (HT 0-0)

In summary, expect a tight, tactical affair where Dundalk’s quality edges it, but Wexford’s spirit keeps things interesting. For punters and fans alike, this is a fixture where the stats, recent form, and market value all point to a low-scoring away win—just don’t rule out another surprise from the hosts.