Brest vs Toulouse: Forecasts
Match context: why this Ligue 1 game matters
Brest welcome Toulouse to Stade Francis-Le Blé in a fixture that feels bigger than a typical mid-season Ligue 1 meeting. Brest are sitting in the mid-table zone (around 10th–11th), where a home win can quickly turn “safe season” into “top-half push.” Toulouse, meanwhile, are hovering just outside the European places (around 7th–8th), so every point matters if they want to keep that continental dream alive.
The market reflects how tight this looks: Brest are priced at 2.95, the draw at 3.15, and Toulouse at 2.82—basically a coin flip with a slight lean to the visitors.
If you like data-driven picks, you can always cross-check ideas at Football Predictions with AI.
Ligue 1 patterns: what the league usually “allows”
Over the last 4 years in Ligue 1:
– Home wins: 41.8%
– Away wins: 30.1%
– Draws: 28.1%
So, home advantage is real—but not overwhelming.
On goals:
– Over 1.5 goals lands 72.9% of the time
– Over 2.5 goals lands 49.9%
– Over 3.5 goals lands only 28.7%
That last stat is the key: Ligue 1 isn’t a guaranteed goal-fest, and matches with 4+ goals are the minority. This lines up neatly with the conservative goal-based angle NerdyTips is leaning toward.
Team form vs long-term performance
Brest snapshot
Longer-term, Brest have won 41.0% of their last 156 matches—solid, but not dominant. Their goal trends:
– Over 2.5 goals: 53.2%
– Over 3.5 goals: 30.1%
– BTTS: 52.6%
Recent form (last 10) looks more “grindy” than explosive:
– 4 wins in 10
– 1.1 goals scored / 1.3 conceded per game
– 46.7% average possession, 10.2 shots per match
They’ve had some eye-catching moments too—like that surprising 1–1 draw away to Bayer Leverkusen when the odds heavily favored Leverkusen. That kind of result hints Brest can stay organized and frustrate stronger teams.
Team news-wise, Brest are expected to miss defender Julien Le Cardinal (suspension), and Mama Baldé is reportedly out with a shin issue—worth noting because it can reduce attacking depth.
Key Brest attackers mentioned this season:
– Romain Del Castillo (6 goals)
– Kamory Doumbia (4 goals)
– Ludovic Ajorque (2 goals, 5 assists; also draws lots of fouls—useful for territory and set pieces)
Toulouse snapshot
Toulouse’s longer-term win rate is similar (39.0% across 154 matches), with slightly higher draw frequency (26.0%). Their goal profile:
– Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%
– Over 3.5 goals: 24.7%
– BTTS: 55.2%
Recent form is stronger than Brest’s on paper:
– 4 wins in 10
– 1.5 goals scored / 1.0 conceded per game
– 42% possession, 13 shots per match
They’ve also shown they can punch above their weight—like that 2–2 away draw at Marseille as big underdogs (around 5.7). That’s a sign of resilience, even in tough away spots.
Tactically, Carles Martínez Novell is known for flexibility (often 3-4-3 or 4-2-3-1), aiming for structure first and building toward European contention.
Key Toulouse names to know:
– Yann Gboho (5 goals)
– Aron Dønnum (4 assists, 37 key passes) as the main creator
– Frank Magri (xG around 5.0) as a consistent chance-getter
– Santiago Hidalgo, a young, direct winger brought in to add speed and 1v1 threat
Head-to-head note
Their last listed H2H (2024-09-22) ended Brest 2–0 Toulouse. It’s only one match, but it supports the idea that Brest at home can keep Toulouse quiet when the game script suits them.
Predictions & betting tips (data-backed)
Best bet (goals market)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.28 (NerdyTips confidence: 4.4/10)
Why it makes sense with the stats:
– Ligue 1 goes over 3.5 only 28.7% of the time (so under 3.5 hits ~71.3%).
– Brest over 3.5: 30.1% (under ~69.9%).
– Toulouse over 3.5: 24.7% (under ~75.3%).
– The AI’s projected match flow is controlled: 57% Brest possession, 11 shots each, 4 on target each, and only ~7 corners—numbers that usually point to a measured tempo rather than chaos.
This is the kind of bet that doesn’t require picking the winner—just avoiding a shootout.
1X2 lean (higher risk)
NerdyTips also leans Brest to win (1) @ 2.95, but with very low confidence (1.6/10). That low trust rating is important ethically: it’s basically saying “possible value, but not reliable.”
If you want to play the result market anyway, consider keeping stakes smaller or using safer structures (like draw-no-bet) depending on what your sportsbook offers.
Correct score vibe
The AI projects 1–0 (and 1–0 at half-time). That’s consistent with:
– Brest’s lower recent scoring rate (1.1 per game)
– Toulouse’s decent defensive numbers lately (1.0 conceded per game)
– The under 3.5 angle overall
Correct scores are high-variance, so treat that as “storytelling,” not a main bet.
Responsible betting note
Even good stats don’t guarantee outcomes—football is noisy (red cards, penalties, finishing variance). If you’re betting, keep it fun, stake responsibly, and avoid chasing losses.
More predictions (separate competition)
If you’re browsing extra picks beyond Ligue 1, here are NerdyTips’ predictions for Super Cup Russia—handy if you like comparing markets across leagues.