Liverpool vs Burnley: Forecasts

Match preview: “The Reds vs The Clarets” at Anfield

Liverpool welcome Burnley to Anfield for a Premier League matchup that feels important at both ends of the table. Liverpool are trying to keep their top-four push on track despite a slightly stop-start run and the kind of injury noise that can disrupt rhythm. Burnley, meanwhile, arrive as underdogs but with enough recent evidence that they can be awkward—especially if the game turns into a transition-heavy scrap.

From a betting angle, the market is pretty clear: Liverpool are priced at 1.26 for the home win, with the draw at 6.7 and Burnley all the way out at 15.0. That’s a strong “expected home control” signal before we even look at the stats.

Best bet (AI pick) and why it fits the data

The standout recommendation from the NerdyTips model is simple and direct: Best Tip: Liverpool to win (1) at 1.26.

Here’s why that aligns with the numbers you provided:
– Liverpool’s long-run win rate is elite: 62.7% across their last 209 matches, which is massive consistency over a big sample.
– Burnley’s win rate is notably lower: 41.5% across 164 matches, and their recent form is even shakier (just 1 win in the last 10).
– Recent performance gap: Liverpool’s last-10 shows 5 wins with only 0.9 goals conceded per match on average, while Burnley have been conceding 1.8 per match in the same span.
– Head-to-head supports it: the last meeting ended 3–1 to Liverpool, and the odds back then were similarly one-sided—suggesting the matchup dynamic hasn’t changed much.

If you like “banker” style selections for accumulators, this is the kind of fixture the market and the model both treat as a foundation pick.

Game script: possession, shots, and how it could play out

The projected match flow leans heavily toward Liverpool controlling territory:
– Expected possession: Liverpool 67% vs Burnley 33%
– Expected shots: Liverpool 18 total (4 on target) vs Burnley 7 (2 on target)
– Corners: 10 total, with Liverpool edging it (6–4)

That profile screams “Liverpool camped in Burnley’s half,” with Burnley trying to survive pressure and nick moments on the break. It also matches Liverpool’s recent possession trend (around 60% on average in their last 10).

One interesting detail: the forecast suggests Liverpool may not rack up many cards (0 projected yellows), while Burnley could see 2. That often happens when one side defends deep for long spells—late tackles, tactical fouls, and frustration challenges add up.

What about goals markets?

The model leans Under 3.5 goals at 1.67, but with a low confidence score (2.2/10). That low confidence is worth respecting, because the broader stats point both ways:
– Liverpool matches go over 2.5 goals 61.7% of the time, and over 3.5 in 40.2%.
– Burnley’s last 10 had 6 games over 2.5, and they’ve been conceding plenty (1.8 per match).
– Premier League-wide, only 32.2% of games go over 3.5—so “under 3.5” is often a reasonable default, but not always a comfortable one with Liverpool involved.

A practical way to read it: Liverpool win is the cleanest angle; totals are more “taste-based” depending on your risk tolerance.

Correct score lean

The predicted full-time scoreline is 2–1, with 1–0 at half-time. That fits the idea of Liverpool starting strong at Anfield, then Burnley finding a moment (or Liverpool managing the second half rather than chasing a blowout).

Recent results that add context

Two recent matches stand out as mood-setters:
– Liverpool just ground out a 0–0 away draw at Arsenal despite being priced as underdogs—often a sign of defensive structure and game management improving.
– Burnley earned a 2–2 draw against Manchester United as big underdogs, which is a reminder they can punish lapses and stay competitive when the game opens up.

So yes, Liverpool are rightly favored—but Burnley aren’t a “walkover,” especially if Liverpool’s finishing isn’t sharp.

Final betting takeaway

If you want the most straightforward, data-backed play, the best angle remains Liverpool to win (1). It matches the odds, the model confidence, the possession/shot projections, and the longer-term win rates for both clubs.

If you are interested in other leagues, check our Super League China football predictions.