Olimpia vs Club Guarani: Predictions

Olimpia vs Club Guaraní: derby context and match details

Olimpia and Club Guaraní renew one of Paraguay’s most traditional rivalries in the Division Profesional – Apertura, with kick-off set for 2026-01-25 at 21:00 UTC at the Estadio Osvaldo Domínguez Dibb in Asunción. It’s early in the Apertura calendar, but these are the fixtures that shape momentum: a fast start, a statement win, and bragging rights that linger well beyond January.

If you’re building your weekend coupon, you can also browse more fixtures via Football Tips and Predictions.

1X2 odds: what the market is saying

The bookmakers have this priced as a competitive derby rather than a one-sided home banker:
Home win (Olimpia) – 2.32
Draw – 3.40
Away win (Guaraní) – 3.40

Those numbers matter because they align with long-run league behaviour. Over the last four years in Paraguay’s Apertura, home wins landed in 35.5% of matches, draws in 34.4%, and away wins in 30.1%. In other words: the draw is always “live” in this competition, and derbies often amplify that tension.

Best bet from NerdyTips AI NT 4.0

Best Tip: 1X (Olimpia to win or draw) @ 1.37
Confidence: 4.0/10

This is the conservative angle, and it’s easy to justify with the data you provided:
– Olimpia’s broader results profile shows a solid base: 44.6% win rate across their last 184 matches, with 31.0% ending level. That draw frequency is important for a 1X bet—because it “catches” a large chunk of outcomes.
– Guaraní’s overall win rate is also strong (41.6% across 190 games), but their draw rate is lower (26.8%), which often hints at a more decisive match pattern—useful for goals markets, but not always ideal when travelling to a heavyweight venue.
– The league itself is draw-friendly (34.4%), so taking the home side with protection is a sensible way to respect the competition’s volatility.

In betting terms, 1X is a classic “derby insurance” play: you’re backing Olimpia’s home edge without pretending this rivalry is predictable.

Main 1X2 prediction: backing Olimpia

AI 1X2 pick: Olimpia to win (1) @ 2.32
Confidence: 3.1/10

The confidence is modest, and that’s honest. Guaraní have already shown they can hurt Olimpia—most notably in the last head-to-head on 2025-10-26, when Guaraní won 3-1 despite the market leaning slightly toward Olimpia (around 2.25 for the home win). That result is a reminder that “big club at home” doesn’t automatically cash.

So why still lean Olimpia at 2.32?
– Recent form is mixed but workable: Olimpia have 3 wins in their last 10, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.6 per match. That concession rate suggests they can be exposed, but it also points to open games where a home side can still outscore problems.
– Guaraní’s last 10 reads better on paper (5 wins), yet their attacking output is lower: 1.3 goals scored per match. If Olimpia can turn the derby into a higher-tempo, chance-heavy contest, the home side’s greater shot volume (Olimpia 15.25 shots per match vs Guaraní 9) becomes a real edge.

At 2.32, you’re not paying “short favourite tax.” You’re taking a price that reflects risk—appropriate for a derby—while still siding with the home team’s chance creation.

Goals market: why Over 1.5 is the sensible line

AI goals pick: Over 1.5 goals @ 1.28
Confidence: 4.0/10

This tip has stronger statistical support than a straight 1X2 call:
– League-wide, 66.2% of Apertura matches go over 1.5 goals.
– Olimpia matches clear over 1.5 in 72.3% of cases; Guaraní do it in 68.9%.
– Recent samples also lean that way: in Olimpia’s last 10, 6 went over 2.5; Guaraní had 5 over 2.5. If both are already flirting with 3+ goal games, clearing 2 goals total is the “safer” rung on the ladder.

There’s also a stylistic hint in the numbers: Olimpia’s lower possession (about 42%) with high shot volume suggests direct attacks and transitions—often good for goals. Guaraní’s higher possession (about 50%) can still produce chances if they’re forced to play forward after conceding.

Both Teams To Score? A derby angle worth considering

This isn’t the headline tip, but it’s relevant to your predicted scoreline.
– BTTS lands in 47.9% of league matches.
– Olimpia’s BTTS rate is higher at 54.9%, while Guaraní’s is 47.4%.

That combination doesn’t scream “guaranteed,” but it does support the idea that Olimpia games often feature trading punches—especially when they concede 1.6 per match in recent form.

Predicted scoreline and half-time lean

Full-time predicted score: Olimpia 3-2 Guaraní
Half-time correct score lean: 2-1

A 3-2 call is aggressive, and bettors should treat correct scores as small-stake, high-variance plays. Still, it matches the underlying story: both sides have decent over-2.5 tendencies (Olimpia 45.7%, Guaraní 48.9% historically), and Olimpia’s recent games have been open at both ends.

How to bet it: practical picks for bettors

Best Tip: 1X (Olimpia or Draw) @ 1.37 – the pragmatic derby selection.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.28 – supported by both team trends and league averages.
Olimpia to win @ 2.32 – value-minded, but keep stakes sensible due to derby variance and the last H2H.

Responsible betting note

These are data-led predictions, not guarantees. Keep your staking disciplined, avoid chasing losses, and treat derbies in Paraguay’s Apertura with extra respect—emotion, momentum swings, and game-state can flip a ticket quickly.