Pruszkow vs Grodzisk M.: Predictions

The Stage is Set

The I Liga resumes with a fixture charged with local pride. On February 21, 2026, Znicz Pruszków welcomes Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki in the “Derby podwarszawskie” – the Derby of the Warsaw Suburbs. With merely 20 kilometers separating the towns, this is more than a football match; it’s a battle for regional bragging rights with significant implications for the league table. Pruszków aims to solidify a top-half position, while Grodzisk fights to distance itself from relegation fears.

Tactical Duel and Team News

Grzegorz Szoka’s Znicz Pruszków operates with a disciplined 3-4-2-1, built on a compact block and swift transitions. They will miss the suspended Filip Kendzia, a blow to their midfield structure. Marcin Sasal’s Pogoń Grodzisk M. favors an aggressive 4-3-3, pressing high and playing vertically. Their winter signing, winger Matheus Santos, could be a decisive factor. For Pogoń, striker Kamil Odolak’s form in friendlies makes him the danger man.

Analyzing the Core Statistics

Historical I Liga data reveals a league where home advantage is significant (40.6% home wins), but not overwhelming. The stats for these two teams, however, paint a clearer picture. Grodzisk M. shows a stronger overall win rate (48.8% in last 84 games) compared to Pruszkow’s 37.4% at home. Crucially, Grodzisk’s matches are more frequently high-event: 84.5% see over 1.5 goals and 58.3% over 2.5, compared to Pruszkow’s 69.8% and 46.8% respectively. This suggests an inherent openness in their approach.

NerdyTips AI Analysis and Betting Insights

The AI model, processing this wealth of data, team news, and tactical setups, has generated its projections. The predicted final score is 1-2, with a halftime lead for the visitors (0-1). The expected metrics—narrow possession (49%-51%), more shots for Grodzisk (12 vs 9), and a tight corner count—all point towards a competitive but potentially away-leaning encounter.

Decoding the Recommended Bets

The AI’s primary recommendation is X2 (Double Chance – Grodzisk M. to Win or Draw) at odds of 1.50. This tip carries a 4.3/10 confidence level. The rationale is rooted in Grodzisk’s superior seasonal profile, Pruszkow‘s key absence (Kendzia), and the visitors’ active transfer window which addressed weaknesses. The odds of 2.37 for an outright away win offer value, but the X2 bet provides a safer corridor that accounts for the derby’s potential for a stalemate, especially given Pruszkow’s resilient recent form.

For the 1×2 market, the AI predicts a straight ‘2’ (Away Win) with 3.4/10 confidence at odds of 2.37. This aligns with the predicted scoreline and Grodzisk’s higher win-rate statistics. The value is apparent when contrasted with the league’s average away win rate of 31.3%.

In the goals market, the suggestion is Under 3.5 Goals at 1.52 (3.2/10 confidence). This might seem counterintuitive given Grodzisk’s high-scoring trend. However, it factors in the derby pressure, Pruszkow’s defensive focus from their winter camp, and the fact that only 26.5% of I Liga games exceed 3.5 goals. The prediction sits neatly between the over 2.5 stats for both teams.

Final Verdict and Key Considerations

This derby presents a fascinating conflict of styles: Pruszkow’s disciplined structure versus Grodzisk’s proactive aggression. The AI’s lean towards the visitors is persuasive, considering their overall stronger metrics and Pruszkow’s suspension issue. The recent head-to-head—a 4-0 win for Grodzisk in January 2025—looms in the memory, though form evolves. Bettors should note both teams’ capacity for surprise draws against odds, as seen in their recent histories. The data-driven edge points towards Grodzisk Mazowiecki avoiding defeat. For those seeking informed guidance, these Football Predictions generated using Artificial Intelligence offer a calculated perspective on a fiercely unpredictable local contest.