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Bologna

€275.00m

9 Apr15:00
1 : 3

Aston Villa

€547.50m

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Bologna vs Aston Villa Prediction UEFA Europa League

Bologna vs Aston Villa prediction: first-leg edges and bets

The Bologna vs Aston Villa prediction picture is shaped by two teams arriving with real European momentum, and a first leg that should feel tense without being cagey. Kick-off is set for 20:00 GMT on Thursday, April 9, 2.156, at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, with Bologna hosting the Europa League quarter-final opener and Aston Villa bringing that familiar Unai Emery calm in two-legged ties.

Team news, form, and how the match may be played

Bologna’s European run has turned into one of the season’s best stories. Vincenzo Italiano has them unbeaten in 11 straight Europa League matches (7 wins, 4 draws), and their route here was pure drama: an all-Italian tie with Roma finished 5-4 on aggregate, built on a 1-1 at home and then that extraordinary extra-time 4-3 away win on March 19, when Bologna were priced around 5.5 to win. That kind of night can harden a group quickly.

Aston Villa’s journey has been more controlled but just as impressive. They finished second in the league phase with seven wins from eight, then eased past Lille 3-0 on aggregate in the last 16. The bigger headline is the wider European sample: Villa have won 13 of their last 15 in Europe, including seven straight wins, the longest winning sequence in the club’s history. Even their “surprise” results travel well—think back to that 2.15 at Arsenal in January 2.15 at long odds for a Villa win.

What to watch tactically

Italiano’s Bologna tend to look for quick combinations and brave positioning, but against Emery the key is decision-making: when to press, and when to keep their shape. Villa, meanwhile, usually manage risk well away from home, happy to let phases breathe and then attack with purpose when the moment is right.

  • Possession split: Bologna 47% vs Villa 53% hints at Villa controlling the rhythm, not necessarily dominating territory.
  • Shot profile: Bologna are projected for 12 shots to Villa’s 10, but Villa’s game can be about picking the right shots, not taking the most.
  • Set pieces: 4 corners each (8 total) suggests no clear edge, so delivery quality may matter more than volume.

Injuries and squad notes

Villa have been hit by injuries around the international break, with winger Jadon Sancho reportedly sidelined after a shoulder problem suffered in a friendly against Elche arranged to keep non-internationals sharp. That can reduce one-on-one threat, but Emery’s structure usually travels even when a winger is missing.

AI betting tips, odds, and score prediction

Markets lean Villa: home win 4.255, draw 4.255, away win 2.15. On pure squad value, that makes sense too—Bologna at €275.0m versus Villa at €547.5m—though this is also the stage where “value” meets the noise of a loud first leg in Italy.

  • Best wager: Away team to score (AS) at 1.27, confidence 8.1/10.
  • 1X2 pick: Away win (2) at 2.15, trust level 2.1 (low-to-medium conviction).
  • Goals market: Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, confidence 5.1.

Those tips connect neatly with the match stats: Villa are predicted to have 53% possession but only 2 shots on target, which sounds odd until you remember how Emery teams can score from limited “clean looks,” especially if Bologna’s press leaves space for one decisive move. The model’s expected scoreline is 1-2, with a 0-1 first half—exactly the kind of away-leg narrative where Villa land an early punch and then manage the rest.

For readers searching Bologna vs Aston Villa prediction angles, the safest path is Villa simply getting on the scoresheet, while the slightly braver route is backing the away win at a bigger price. Head to head history is thin, so this one is about style and trend more than familiarity—and the betting tips point to Villa leaving Bologna with something to defend in the second leg.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Bologna vs Aston Villa

AS -370

Aston Villa is expected to score at least 1 goal with odds of -370
8/10

1x2 Tip

2 115

Aston Villa is expected to win with odds of 115
2/10

Total Goals

Over 1.5 -250

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match
5/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -105

Both teams are expected to score
3/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&O1.5 -132

Away win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

0:1

Correct Score

1:2

Stats Predictions

1.06
xG
0.96
47%
Ball Possession
53%
12
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
2
5
Shots Off Goal
4
4
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

1.14
Expected Goals
1.03
2.2
Total Goals
2.5
1.3
Goals Scored
1.1
0.9
Goals Against
1.4
52%
Possession
52%
13.9
Total Shots
11.8
4.6
Shots on Goal
3.3
5.6
Shots off Goal
4.8
14
Fouls
9.8
5.1
Corners
5.1
2
Offsides
1.3
2.2
Yellow Cards
1.7
445
Total Passes
447

Overview Last 10 Matches

7
Wins
4
5
Over 1.5 Goals
8
3
Over 2.5 Goals
3
1
Over 3.5 Goals
3
4
Both Teams Scored
5
1
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Bologna
0 - 0 - 2
Aston Villa
Aston Villa Aston Villa 25-Sep-25
1:0
Bologna Bologna
Aston Villa Aston Villa 22-Oct-24
2:0
Bologna Bologna

Profile time Recent Matches of Bologna

12 Apr Bologna Bologna - Lecce Lecce -
09 AprL Bologna Bologna 1 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3
05 AprW Cremonese Cremonese 1 Bologna Bologna 2
22 MarL Bologna Bologna 0 Lazio Lazio 2
19 MarW AS Roma AS Roma 3 Bologna Bologna 4
15 MarW Sassuolo Sassuolo 0 Bologna Bologna 1
12 MarD Bologna Bologna 1 AS Roma AS Roma 1
08 MarL Bologna Bologna 1 Hellas V Hellas V 2
02 MarW Pisa Pisa 0 Bologna Bologna 1
26 FebW Bologna Bologna 1 Brann Brann 0

Profile time Recent Matches of Aston Villa

12 AprNottingham F Nottingham F - Aston Villa Aston Villa -
09 AprWBologna Bologna 1 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3
22 MarWAston Villa Aston Villa 2 West Ham West Ham 0
19 MarWAston Villa Aston Villa 2 Lille Lille 0
15 MarLMan. Utd Man. Utd 3 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1
12 MarWLille Lille 0 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1
04 MarLAston Villa Aston Villa 1 Chelsea Chelsea 4
27 FebLWolves Wolves 2 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0
21 FebDAston Villa Aston Villa 1 Leeds Leeds 1
14 FebLAston Villa Aston Villa 1 Newcastle Newcastle 3

World - UEFA Europa League World - UEFA Europa League

Team M G P
1 Lyon Lyon818-521
2 Aston Villa Aston Villa814-621
3 FC Midtjylland FC Midtjylland818-819
4 Real Betis Real Betis813-717
5 FC Porto FC Porto813-717
6 SC Braga SC Braga811-517
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg810-417
8 AS Roma AS Roma813-616
9 Genk Genk811-716
10 Bologna Bologna814-715
11 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart815-915
12 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi812-1115
13 Nottingham Forest Nottingham815-714
14 Plzen Plzen88-314
15 FK Crvena Zvezda FK Crvena87-614
16 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo815-1113
17 PAOK PAOK817-1412
18 Lille Lille812-912
19 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe810-712
20 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos811-912
21 Celtic Celtic813-1511
22 Ludogorets Ludogorets812-1510
23 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb812-1610
24 Brann Brann89-119
25 BSC Young Boys BSC Young Boys810-169
26 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz85-117
27 FCSB FCSB89-167
28 GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead86-147
29 Feyenoord Feyenoord811-156
30 FC Basel 1893 FC Basel 189389-136
31 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull810-156
32 Rangers Rangers85-144
33 Nice Nice87-153
34 Utrecht Utrecht85-151
35 Malmo FF Malmo FF84-151
36 Maccabi Tel Aviv Maccabi Tel82-221
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