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Bologna

€275.00m

9 Apr15:00
1 : 3

Aston Villa

€547.50m

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Bologna vs Aston Villa Prediction UEFA Europa League

Bologna vs Aston Villa prediction: first-leg edges and bets

The Bologna vs Aston Villa prediction picture is shaped by two teams arriving with real European momentum, and a first leg that should feel tense without being cagey. Kick-off is set for 20:00 GMT on Thursday, April 9, 2.156, at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, with Bologna hosting the Europa League quarter-final opener and Aston Villa bringing that familiar Unai Emery calm in two-legged ties.

Team news, form, and how the match may be played

Bologna’s European run has turned into one of the season’s best stories. Vincenzo Italiano has them unbeaten in 11 straight Europa League matches (7 wins, 4 draws), and their route here was pure drama: an all-Italian tie with Roma finished 5-4 on aggregate, built on a 1-1 at home and then that extraordinary extra-time 4-3 away win on March 19, when Bologna were priced around 5.5 to win. That kind of night can harden a group quickly.

Aston Villa’s journey has been more controlled but just as impressive. They finished second in the league phase with seven wins from eight, then eased past Lille 3-0 on aggregate in the last 16. The bigger headline is the wider European sample: Villa have won 13 of their last 15 in Europe, including seven straight wins, the longest winning sequence in the club’s history. Even their “surprise” results travel well—think back to that 2.15 at Arsenal in January 2.15 at long odds for a Villa win.

What to watch tactically

Italiano’s Bologna tend to look for quick combinations and brave positioning, but against Emery the key is decision-making: when to press, and when to keep their shape. Villa, meanwhile, usually manage risk well away from home, happy to let phases breathe and then attack with purpose when the moment is right.

  • Possession split: Bologna 47% vs Villa 53% hints at Villa controlling the rhythm, not necessarily dominating territory.
  • Shot profile: Bologna are projected for 12 shots to Villa’s 10, but Villa’s game can be about picking the right shots, not taking the most.
  • Set pieces: 4 corners each (8 total) suggests no clear edge, so delivery quality may matter more than volume.

Injuries and squad notes

Villa have been hit by injuries around the international break, with winger Jadon Sancho reportedly sidelined after a shoulder problem suffered in a friendly against Elche arranged to keep non-internationals sharp. That can reduce one-on-one threat, but Emery’s structure usually travels even when a winger is missing.

AI betting tips, odds, and score prediction

Markets lean Villa: home win 4.255, draw 4.255, away win 2.15. On pure squad value, that makes sense too—Bologna at €275.0m versus Villa at €547.5m—though this is also the stage where “value” meets the noise of a loud first leg in Italy.

  • Best wager: Away team to score (AS) at 1.27, confidence 8.1/10.
  • 1X2 pick: Away win (2) at 2.15, trust level 2.1 (low-to-medium conviction).
  • Goals market: Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, confidence 5.1.

Those tips connect neatly with the match stats: Villa are predicted to have 53% possession but only 2 shots on target, which sounds odd until you remember how Emery teams can score from limited “clean looks,” especially if Bologna’s press leaves space for one decisive move. The model’s expected scoreline is 1-2, with a 0-1 first half—exactly the kind of away-leg narrative where Villa land an early punch and then manage the rest.

For readers searching Bologna vs Aston Villa prediction angles, the safest path is Villa simply getting on the scoresheet, while the slightly braver route is backing the away win at a bigger price. Head to head history is thin, so this one is about style and trend more than familiarity—and the betting tips point to Villa leaving Bologna with something to defend in the second leg.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Bologna vs Aston Villa

AS -370

Aston Villa is expected to score at least 1 goal with odds of -370
8/10

1x2 Tip

2 115

Aston Villa is expected to win with odds of 115
2/10

Total Goals

Over 1.5 -250

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match
5/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -105

Both teams are expected to score
3/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&O1.5 -132

Away win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:2

Stats Predictions

1.06
xG
0.96
47%
Ball Possession
53%
12
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
2
5
Shots Off Goal
4
4
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

1.14
Expected Goals
1.03
2.2
Total Goals
2.5
1.3
Goals Scored
1.1
0.9
Goals Against
1.4
52%
Possession
52%
13.9
Total Shots
11.8
4.6
Shots on Goal
3.3
5.6
Shots off Goal
4.8
14
Fouls
9.8
5.1
Corners
5.1
2
Offsides
1.3
2.2
Yellow Cards
1.7
445
Total Passes
447

Overview Last 10 Matches

7
Wins
4
5
Over 1.5 Goals
8
3
Over 2.5 Goals
3
1
Over 3.5 Goals
3
4
Both Teams Scored
5
1
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Bologna
0 - 0 - 4
Aston Villa
Bologna Bologna 09-Apr-26
1:3
Aston Villa Aston Villa
Aston Villa Aston Villa 16-Apr-26
4:0
Bologna Bologna
Aston Villa Aston Villa 25-Sep-25
1:0
Bologna Bologna

Profile time Recent Matches of Bologna

23 MayD Bologna Bologna 3 Inter Inter 3
17 MayW Atalanta Atalanta 0 Bologna Bologna 1
11 MayW Napoli Napoli 2 Bologna Bologna 3
03 MayD Bologna Bologna 0 Cagliari Cagliari 0
25 AprL Bologna Bologna 0 AS Roma AS Roma 2
19 AprL Juventus Juventus 2 Bologna Bologna 0
16 AprL Aston Villa Aston Villa 4 Bologna Bologna 0
12 AprW Bologna Bologna 2 Lecce Lecce 0
09 AprL Bologna Bologna 1 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3
05 AprW Cremonese Cremonese 1 Bologna Bologna 2

Profile time Recent Matches Of Aston Villa

20 MayWSC Freiburg SC Freiburg 0 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3
15 MayWAston Villa Aston Villa 4 Liverpool Liverpool 2
10 MayDBurnley Burnley 2 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2
07 MayWAston Villa Aston Villa 4 Nottingham F Nottingham F 0
03 MayLAston Villa Aston Villa 1 Tottenham Tottenham 2
30 AprLNottingham F Nottingham F 1 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0
25 AprLFulham Fulham 1 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0
19 AprWAston Villa Aston Villa 4 Sunderland Sunderland 3
16 AprWAston Villa Aston Villa 4 Bologna Bologna 0
12 AprDNottingham F Nottingham F 1 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1

World - UEFA Europa League World - UEFA Europa League

Team M G P
1 LyonLyon818-521
2 Aston VillaAston Villa814-621
3 FC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland818-819
4 Real BetisReal Betis813-717
5 FC PortoFC Porto813-717
6 SC BragaSC Braga811-517
7 SC FreiburgSC Freiburg810-417
8 AS RomaAS Roma813-616
9 GenkGenk811-716
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12 Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi812-1115
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14 PlzenPlzen88-314
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17 PAOKPAOK817-1412
18 LilleLille812-912
19 FenerbahçeFenerbahçe810-712
20 PanathinaikosPanathinaikos811-912
21 CelticCeltic813-1511
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24 BrannBrann89-119
25 BSC Young BoysBSC Young Boys810-169
26 Sturm GrazSturm Graz85-117
27 FCSBFCSB89-167
28 GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead86-147
29 FeyenoordFeyenoord811-156
30 FC Basel 1893FC Basel 189389-136
31 Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull810-156
32 RangersRangers85-144
33 NiceNice87-153
34 UtrechtUtrecht85-151
35 Malmo FFMalmo FF84-151
36 Maccabi Tel AvivMaccabi Tel82-221
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