Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Netherlands
Preview
The Ajax vs Excelsior prediction for November 22, 2025, is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing fixtures in this round of the Eredivisie. With the match set for a 17:45 GMT kick-off at the iconic Johan Cruijff ArenA, football fans and sports betting enthusiasts alike are eager to see whether Ajax can reassert their home dominance or if Excelsior can spring another surprise. Let’s break down the teams, tactics, betting odds, and our AI-powered tips for this encounter.
Ajax, the Amsterdam giants, enter this fixture sitting 4th in the Eredivisie table with 20 points from 12 games. Their recent form has been patchy, with just one win in their last six matches across all competitions. On average, they’ve scored one goal per game while conceding 2.5—a stat that will surely concern their supporters. However, their home record is a different story: undefeated in 18 of their last 20 Eredivisie games at the Johan Cruijff ArenA, and they’ve scored in 14 of their last 16 home matches. These numbers make them clear favorites in the betting odds, with a home win priced at 1.36.
Excelsior, meanwhile, are fighting at the wrong end of the table. They currently occupy 16th place with just 10 points from 12 matches, and their away form is a worry—no wins in 7 of their last 8 road trips, and a 53% loss rate in their last 15 away games. They’ve conceded 23 goals (almost 2 per game) and scored only 11. The betting odds reflect their underdog status, with an away win at a tempting 8.75.
Looking at the head to head record, Ajax have dominated this fixture historically: 18 wins, 5 draws, and just 1 defeat in 24 Eredivisie meetings. Yet, the last time these teams met (April 2024), Excelsior held Ajax to a 2-2 draw in Amsterdam—defying the odds and showing they’re capable of causing problems. Recent games between these sides have also been high-scoring, with over 2.5 goals a regular feature.
The sports betting markets paint a clear picture: Ajax are overwhelming favorites, but Excelsior’s ability to find the net shouldn’t be underestimated. Here’s how the main betting odds stack up:
Ajax’s market value dwarfs Excelsior’s (€1.6.30m vs €16.33m), but as history shows, football isn’t played on spreadsheets.
NerdyTips’ AI has crunched the data, and here’s what our predictive engine suggests for Ajax vs Excelsior:
Our AI’s predicted final score is 1:2 in favor of Excelsior, with a 0:1 lead at halftime. Ajax are expected to dominate possession (68%) and outshoot their opponents (13 shots to 10), but Excelsior’s efficiency could be the difference. Expect 7 corners (4 for Ajax, 3 for Excelsior) and a few bookings along the way.
While the Ajax vs Excelsior prediction from the bookies points to a comfortable home win, the stats and recent history suggest there’s room for an upset. Ajax’s injuries and leaky defense give Excelsior hope, and their ability to score away from home makes “AS – Away team will score” a smart betting tip. Over 2.5 goals is another attractive option given both teams’ trends.
Whether you’re backing Ajax, Excelsior, or just hoping for goals, this Eredivisie fixture promises plenty of drama. For more expert tips and the latest betting odds, keep following NerdyTips for all your Ajax vs Excelsior prediction needs.
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Ajax has upcoming match in Europe
AS -167
Excelsior is expected to score at least 1 goal with odds of -1672 775
Excelsior is expected to win with odds of 775Over 2.5 -250
At least 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -159
Both teams are expected to scoreX2&O1.5 261
Away win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1:2
|
|
14
-
4
-
0
|
|
 Ajax |
24-Apr-24
2:2
| Excelsior  |
| Excelsior |
19-Aug-23
2:2
| Ajax |
| Excelsior |
29-Jan-23
1:4
| Ajax |
| Ajax |
16-Oct-22
7:1
| Excelsior |
| Ajax |
13-Apr-19
6:2
| Excelsior |
| Excelsior |
11-Nov-18
1:7
| Ajax |
| Excelsior |
06-May-18
1:2
| Ajax |
| Ajax |
14-Dec-17
3:1
| Excelsior |
| Excelsior |
19-Mar-17
1:1
| Ajax |
Recent Matches of Ajax| 07 Mar |
Groningen
| - |
Ajax
| - | |
| 01 Mar | D |
Zwolle
| 0 |
Ajax
| 0 |
Recent Matches of Excelsior
| 07 Mar | Excelsior |
- |  Heerenveen |
- | |
| 01 Mar | L | Excelsior |
0 |  G.A. Eagles |
1 |
Netherlands - Eredivisie| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
PSV Eindhoven | 25 | 73-30 | 65 |
| 2 |
Feyenoord | 25 | 55-35 | 48 |
| 3 |
Ajax | 25 | 47-31 | 44 |
| 4 |
NEC Nijmegen | 25 | 61-43 | 43 |
| 5 |
Twente | 25 | 41-26 | 41 |
| 6 |
AZ Alkmaar | 25 | 42-40 | 39 |
| 7 |
Sparta | 25 | 32-42 | 37 |
| 8 |
Utrecht | 25 | 38-31 | 34 |
| 9 |
Heerenveen | 25 | 42-43 | 34 |
| 10 |
Fortuna | 25 | 39-45 | 32 |
| 11 |
Groningen | 25 | 33-35 | 31 |
| 12 |
GO Ahead | 25 | 38-39 | 29 |
| 13 |
PEC Zwolle | 25 | 34-50 | 28 |
| 14 |
FC Volendam | 25 | 29-41 | 27 |
| 15 |
Excelsior | 25 | 26-42 | 26 |
| 16 |
NAC Breda | 25 | 25-39 | 22 |
| 17 |
Telstar | 25 | 31-41 | 21 |
| 18 |
Heracles | 25 | 32-65 | 17 |
