Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood Prediction

Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood prediction: home control in Buraydah

The Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood prediction for Friday, 30 January 2026 (13:50 GMT) feels like a classic Saudi Pro League story: a top-five side chasing AFC Champions League dreams, and a relegation candidate collecting points like they are rare coins. They meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Buraydah (with some local talk of a possible switch to the more compact Alinma Stadium), and either way the theme should be the same: Al Taawon trying to set the tempo, Al Okhdood trying to survive it.

Context, form, and what the coaches are building

Al Taawon sit 5th on 35 points, still in the conversation for a top-four finish. Their recent sequence has been uneven, but at home they have been reliable, with a strong win rate that keeps them in the race. Péricles Chamusca has also spoken about stability—understanding the local culture and leaning on his technical staff—so even when results wobble, the game model stays familiar.

Al Okhdood are 17th with 9 points, and the table does not lie: two wins in 17 matches is a heavy weight. Still, there are signs of stubborn life. A competitive 2-1 loss to Al Ittihad showed they can land punches, and since Marius Șumudică arrived (early January), the emphasis has been clear: structure first, chaos later—if there’s time.

Tactical notes to watch early

• Al Taawon’s possession idea: Chamusca often toggles between 5-3-2 and 4-3-3, but the goal is constant—control the ball, push the wing-backs, and let the creators find the striker.
• Al Okhdood’s survival shape: Șumudică has leaned toward 5-4-1 or 4-2-3-1, compact lines, fewer risks, and a hope that one counter or set piece changes the mood.
• Key duel: Angelo Fulgini’s passing lanes versus Okhdood’s midfield screen. If Fulgini turns and faces goal, Okhdood’s back line will start running toward its own box.

Players, absences, and the head to head angle

For Al Taawon, Roger Martínez remains the headline act in the box, while Fulgini is the supply line. Goalkeeper Mailson adds calm, and those clean sheets matter in tight matches. The big injury note is Musa Barrow, out long-term with knee ligament damage—his absence removes a direct, explosive option (and it still echoes because he starred in past meetings).

For Al Okhdood, Christian Bassogog is the outlet who can turn one run into a chance, and Burak İnce is growing into a real threat. Gökhan Gül brings balance from deep areas. On the downside: Khaled Narey is unavailable due to a pneumothorax, and Blaz Kramer is walking a suspension line with four yellow cards.

The head to head points to Al Taawon: they have won four of the last five meetings. The most recent meeting on 2024-11-09 ended 1-0 to Al Taawon, and the broader pattern is that Okhdood rarely get long spells of control against them.

Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood prediction and sports betting tips

Now to the numbers that shape the Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood prediction from a sports betting view. The betting odds are clear: Home win 1.62, Draw 4.1, Away win 6.1. Our model agrees strongly with the market, but it also explains why.

Main 1X2 call

• Best tip: Al Taawon to win (1) at 1.62, confidence 10.0/10.
• 1x2 prediction: 1 (trust 10.0, odds 1.62).

The match script behind that pick is simple: Al Taawon are projected to have around 61% possession, with 12 total shots (4 on target). Al Okhdood are projected nearer 39% possession, 6 shots, and only 2 on target. That gap usually shows up on the scoreboard.

Goals, corners, and game texture

• Under 3.5 goals is the model’s lean (confidence 2.9, odds 1.39).
• Corner prediction: Al Taawon 6, Al Okhdood 3 (total 9).
• Discipline: 2 yellows for Al Taawon, 1 for Al Okhdood.

The lower confidence on Under 3.5 is a useful warning for bettors: the most likely rhythm is controlled, but transitions can still bite—especially if Okhdood nick an early counter. Still, with Al Taawon expected to dominate territory and corners, the home side should spend longer in the attacking third.

Correct score lean

• Final score prediction: 2-1
• Half-time expected score: 1-0

If Al Okhdood are going to take something, they probably need a near-perfect defensive day. But with the squad value gap (€29.60m vs €10.88m) and the projected shot map pointing one way, this reads like a match where Al Taawon do most things right—and do them at home.