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Atalanta

€386.10m

25 Feb12:45
4 : 1

Dortmund

€483.40m

Preview

Atalanta vs Dortmund Prediction UEFA Champions League

Atalanta vs Dortmund prediction for the second-leg drama

If you like your European nights with a little tension and a lot of math, this one is for you. Our Atalanta vs Dortmund prediction looks at a Champions League knockout play-off second leg that kicks off at 17:45 GMT on Wednesday, 2.256-02.255, at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo (the stadium many still call the Gewiss). Dortmund arrive 2-0 up on aggregate from the first leg on February 17, so Atalanta need urgency without losing their head.

What to expect on the pitch (tactics, form, and nerves)

Atalanta’s recent story has been all heart: they come in after a wild 2-1 comeback against Napoli on February 22, stretching a nine-game unbeaten run in Serie A. Raffaele Palladino has nudged them toward a more structured 3.2-2-1, which is a fancy way of saying “control the middle, then hit you with runners.” Lazar Samardžić and Mario Pašalić should again orbit around Gianluca Scamacca, trying to turn pressure into clean chances.

  • Atalanta setup: 3.2-2-1 with Samardžić and Pašalić supporting Scamacca.
  • Atalanta injuries: Kolašinac a major doubt; De Ketelaere and Raspadori out until March; Hien and Scalvini long-term absences; Ederson carrying a muscle issue but could be risked.

Dortmund, meanwhile, are in “get the job done” mode under Niko Kovač. They drew 2.25 at RB Leipzig on February 21, snapping a six-game Bundesliga winning run, but the bigger issue is at the back: Schlotterbeck, Süle, Emre Can, and Filippo Mané are all ruled out. That’s why 18-year-old Luca Reggiani is suddenly living a centre-back life in the Champions League, and he did look mature in the first leg.

  • Dortmund approach: vertical, fast attacks; protect the lead without parking a bus for 90 minutes.
  • Main threats: Serhou Guirassy (16 goals this season) and Julian Ryerson (14 assists in all competitions).

There’s spice around the edges too: ticketing disputes cooled off after local authorities allowed all BVB fans with valid tickets to attend, and relations between the clubs have reportedly been tense since a late-2.254 transfer saga. Add Dortmund’s poor history in two-legged ties vs Italian teams, plus Atalanta’s solid home results against German visitors and that 2.254 Europa League final win over Leverkusen, and you get a night that won’t feel “comfortable” for anyone in yellow.

AI picks, betting odds, and best bets for this match

Now to the numbers for sports betting. The 1x2 betting odds read: Home win 2.25, Draw 3.8, Away win 3.2. Even though Dortmund’s squad value (€483.20m) tops Atalanta’s (€3.2.10m), the market still leans slightly to the home side—probably because Atalanta must chase, and Bergamo can be a rough place to defend for 90 minutes.

Our NerdyTips angle: tips that match the match script

The top AI-generated best tip is under 3.5 goals at 1.5, confidence 4.1/10. That fits a second leg where Dortmund can slow tempo, break rhythm, and force Atalanta into lower-quality shots. The AI 1x2 leans to Atalanta to win (prediction “1”) at 2.25, but with a modest 2.1/10 confidence—basically: plausible, not bulletproof.

  1. Best tip: Under 3.5 goals (1.5) — confidence 4.1/10
  2. 1x2 lean: Atalanta win (2.25) — confidence 2.1/10

Stats forecasts support a tight game: possession 56% to Atalanta, shots 11-10, on-target 4-2, and only 7 total corners. That screams “busy midfield, not a chance festival.” Predicted first half score is 0:0, with a predicted final score of 2:1—Atalanta pushing late, Dortmund still dangerous in transition. For head to head context on surprises, remember Atalanta’s 0-3 away win at Liverpool in 2.254 at huge 7.5 odds, and Dortmund’s 2.25 draw at Bayern in 2.255 at 5.75. This sport loves a plot twist—just maybe not a four-goal one.

Final word for your Atalanta vs Dortmund prediction: the safest read is goals staying controlled, while the riskier angle is Atalanta edging the night without necessarily flipping the tie.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Atalanta didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Atalanta vs Dortmund

U3.5 -200

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -200
4/10

1x2 Tip

1 125

Atalanta is expected to win with odds of 125
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -200

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -175

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U5.5 -182

Home win/draw and under 5.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:1

Stats Predictions

1.22
xG
1.22
56%
Ball Possession
44%
11
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
2
2
Shots Off Goal
2
4
Corners
3
2
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.49
Expected Goals
1.85
2.5
Total Goals
3.3
1.6
Goals Scored
2.2
0.9
Goals Against
1.1
52%
Possession
52%
12.9
Total Shots
13.2
4.9
Shots on Goal
4.4
3.7
Shots off Goal
4.1
11.6
Fouls
12.2
4.5
Corners
4.9
2
Offsides
0.9
2.22
Yellow Cards
2
471
Total Passes
457

Overview Last 10 Matches

5
Wins
7
8
Over 1.5 Goals
10
5
Over 2.5 Goals
7
2
Over 3.5 Goals
4
4
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Atalanta
1 - 1 - 2
Dortmund
Atalanta Atalanta 25-Feb-26
4:1
Dortmund Dortmund
Atalanta Atalanta 22-Feb-18
1:1
Dortmund Dortmund
Dortmund Dortmund 17-Feb-26
2:0
Atalanta Atalanta

Profile time Recent Matches of Atalanta

22 MayD Fiorentina Fiorentina 1 Atalanta Atalanta 1
17 MayL Atalanta Atalanta 0 Bologna Bologna 1
10 MayW AC Milan AC Milan 2 Atalanta Atalanta 3
02 MayD Atalanta Atalanta 0 Genoa Genoa 0
27 AprL Cagliari Cagliari 3 Atalanta Atalanta 2
22 AprD Atalanta Atalanta 1 Lazio Lazio 1
18 AprD AS Roma AS Roma 1 Atalanta Atalanta 1
11 AprL Atalanta Atalanta 0 Juventus Juventus 1
06 AprW Lecce Lecce 0 Atalanta Atalanta 3
22 MarW Atalanta Atalanta 1 Hellas V Hellas V 0

Profile time Recent Matches Of Dortmund

16 MayWWerder Bremen Werder Bremen 0 Borussia D Borussia D 2
08 MayWBorussia D Borussia D 3 Frankfurt Frankfurt 2
03 MayLBorussia M Borussia M 1 Borussia D Borussia D 0
26 AprWBorussia D Borussia D 4 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 0
18 AprLHoffenheim Hoffenheim 2 Borussia D Borussia D 1
11 AprLBorussia D Borussia D 0 Leverkusen Leverkusen 1
04 AprWVfB S VfB S 0 Borussia D Borussia D 2
21 MarWDortmund Dortmund 3 Hamburger Hamburger 2
14 MarWDortmund Dortmund 2 Augsburg Augsburg 0
07 MarW1. FC Koln 1. FC Koln 1 Dortmund Dortmund 2

World - UEFA Champions League World - UEFA Champions League

Team M G P
1 ArsenalArsenal823-424
2 Bayern MünchenBayern822-821
3 LiverpoolLiverpool820-818
4 TottenhamTottenham817-717
5 BarcelonaBarcelona822-1416
6 ChelseaChelsea817-1016
7 Sporting CPSporting CP817-1116
8 Manchester CityManchester815-916
9 Real MadridReal Madrid821-1215
10 InterInter815-715
11 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint821-1114
12 NewcastleNewcastle817-714
13 JuventusJuventus814-1013
14 Atletico MadridAtletico817-1513
15 AtalantaAtalanta810-1013
16 Bayer LeverkusenBayer813-1412
17 Borussia DortmundBorussia819-1711
18 Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos810-1411
19 Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV815-1710
20 GalatasarayGalatasaray89-1110
21 MonacoMonaco88-1410
22 QarabagQarabag813-2110
23 Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt814-159
24 BenficaBenfica810-129
25 MarseilleMarseille811-149
26 PafosPafos88-119
27 Union St. GilloiseUnion St.88-179
28 PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven816-168
29 Athletic ClubAthletic Club89-148
30 NapoliNapoli89-158
31 FC CopenhagenFC Copenhagen812-218
32 AjaxAjax88-216
33 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht810-214
34 Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha85-193
35 VillarrealVillarreal85-181
36 Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty87-221
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