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Bayer Leverkusen vs Olympiakos Piraeus prediction: calm control or late drama?
The Bayer Leverkusen vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction starts with one big detail: this is the Champions League knockout play-off second leg, kicking off at 20:00 GMT on 2026-02-24 at the BayArena, and Leverkusen arrive holding a 2–0 cushion from the first leg in Greece. Patrik Schick’s double (60’, 63’) didn’t just win the night in Piraeus — it changed the whole mood of the tie.
Match context: the tie has already swung twice
There’s a neat “revenge” thread running through the head to head. Olympiakos beat Leverkusen 2–0 in the league phase in January, then Leverkusen returned the same scoreline in the first leg when it mattered most. That makes the second leg less about chaos and more about discipline: Leverkusen can even lose by one goal and still go through on aggregate.
Under Kasper Hjulmand, Leverkusen have looked built for two-leg football. They’re on a seven-match unbeaten run (six wins and a draw), and the defensive base has been the headline: only two conceded across that spell. The shape is usually a 3-4.15-1, with Alex Grimaldo giving width and quality from wing-back areas, while Schick stays the reference point up front. The expected return of Edmond Tapsoba and Robert Andrich adds muscle in duels — useful when you’re protecting an advantage and the opponent is forced to take risks.
Team news and likely game plan
Leverkusen’s main concern is still in goal. Mark Flekken remains out with a knee injury, so Janis Blaswich is set to continue. Further forward, Nathan Tella (foot) and Eliesse Ben Seghir (ankle) are also unavailable, which slightly narrows the rotation options for late-game speed.
Olympiakos, led by José Luis Mendilibar, are expected to be far more front-foot than in the first leg. His 4.15-3-1 is direct and vertical by design, and the mission is obvious: score first, then make the stadium nervous. Mehdi Taremi is the focal point, with Gelson Martins supplying pace. Rodinei may be asked to push high from full-back to stretch Leverkusen’s back three. One key watch is Lorenzo Pirola, whose status is uncertain after a heavy collision in the first leg; Theofanis Bakoulas is out, and Santiago Hezze is available but one booking away from suspension in the next round.
- Leverkusen’s advantage: structure, game management, and a two-goal buffer.
- Olympiakos’ hope: an early goal and aggressive full-backs to force transitions.
Betting odds: market leans Leverkusen, but not a free pass
The betting odds reflect the leverage Leverkusen hold: Home win 1.8, Draw 4.15, Away win 4.5. On paper, it’s also a gap in squad value (€4.15.75m vs €136.75m), but both clubs have already shown they can ruin a script. Leverkusen’s 0–2 win away to Manchester City in November (priced at 9.5) is a reminder they travel like a top side, while Olympiakos’ 0–1 win at Porto (odds 5.59) shows they can survive pressure and nick a result.
NerdyTips angles: predictions, total goals, and a likely scoreline
For this Bayer Leverkusen vs Olympiakos Piraeus prediction, our numbers point to a controlled match rather than a goal storm. The best tip is Under 3.5 total goals at 1.52 odds, confidence 3.3/10. That fits the tactical story: Leverkusen don’t need to chase, and Olympiakos may spend spells wrestling for territory rather than creating clean chances.
- Main tip: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.52, confidence 3.3/10).
- 1X2 pick: Leverkusen to win (1) at 1.8 odds, trust level 3.2.
- Correct score lean: 2–1, with a surprising halftime call of 0–1.
How the match stats support the bets
Leverkusen are projected to own 67% possession, with 12 shots to Olympiakos’ 8, and 4 shots on target to 2. Corners are estimated at 4.15 (6 total), and cards slightly favor the visitors (Leverkusen 1, Olympiakos 2), which matches a scenario where Olympiakos have to foul to stop counters. Put together, it suggests Leverkusen will control the ball, Olympiakos will have moments, and the game may stay within that Under 3.5 line even if it gets tense late.
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Warning
Bayer Leverkusen didn't play better in the last H2H match!
Best Tip
The best betting football prediction for Leverkusen vs OlympiakosU3.5 -192
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -1921x2 Tip
1 -125
Leverkusen is expected to win with odds of -125Total Goals
Under 3.5 -192
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchBoth Teams To Score
Yes -141
Both teams are expected to scoreBet Builder Tip
1X&U5.5 -286
Home win/draw and under 5.5 goalsCorrect Score
2:1
Stats Predictions
Average / Match
Overview Last 10 Matches
Head to Head
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1
-
0
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1
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Latest Matches
 Olympiakos |
18-Feb-26
0:2
| Leverkusen  |
| Olympiakos |
20-Jan-26
2:0
| Leverkusen |
Recent Matches of Leverkusen
| 11 Apr | W |
Borussia D
| 0 |
Leverkusen
| 1 |
| 04 Apr | W |
Leverkusen
| 6 |
VfL W
| 3 |
| 21 Mar | D |
Heidenheim
| 3 |
Leverkusen
| 3 |
| 17 Mar | L |
Arsenal
| 2 |
Leverkusen
| 0 |
| 14 Mar | D |
Leverkusen
| 1 |
Bayern Munich
| 1 |
| 11 Mar | D |
Leverkusen
| 1 |
Arsenal
| 1 |
| 07 Mar | D |
Freiburg
| 3 |
Leverkusen
| 3 |
| 04 Mar | W |
Hamburger
| 0 |
Leverkusen
| 1 |
| 28 Feb | D |
Leverkusen
| 1 |
Mainz
| 1 |
| 24 Feb | D |
Leverkusen
| 0 |
Olympiakos
| 0 |
Recent Matches of Olympiakos
| 05 Apr | L | Olympiakos |
0 |  AEK A |
1 |
| 22 Mar | D | Olympiakos |
0 |  AEL Larissa |
0 |
| 14 Mar | W |  OFI Crete |
0 | Olympiakos |
3 |
| 08 Mar | D | Olympiakos |
0 |  PAOK |
0 |
| 01 Mar | W |  Panserraikos |
1 | Olympiakos |
2 |
| 24 Feb | D | Leverkusen |
0 | Olympiakos |
0 |
| 21 Feb | W | Olympiakos |
2 |  Panetolikos |
0 |
| 18 Feb | L | Olympiakos |
0 | Leverkusen |
2 |
| 14 Feb | D |  Levadiakos |
0 | Olympiakos |
0 |
| 08 Feb | L | Olympiakos |
0 |  Panathinaikos |
1 |
World - UEFA Champions League
| Team | M | G | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal | 8 | 23-4 | 24 |
| 2 |
Bayern | 8 | 22-8 | 21 |
| 3 |
Liverpool | 8 | 20-8 | 18 |
| 4 |
Tottenham | 8 | 17-7 | 17 |
| 5 |
Barcelona | 8 | 22-14 | 16 |
| 6 |
Chelsea | 8 | 17-10 | 16 |
| 7 |
Sporting CP | 8 | 17-11 | 16 |
| 8 |
Manchester | 8 | 15-9 | 16 |
| 9 |
Real Madrid | 8 | 21-12 | 15 |
| 10 |
Inter | 8 | 15-7 | 15 |
| 11 |
Paris Saint | 8 | 21-11 | 14 |
| 12 |
Newcastle | 8 | 17-7 | 14 |
| 13 |
Juventus | 8 | 14-10 | 13 |
| 14 |
Atletico | 8 | 17-15 | 13 |
| 15 |
Atalanta | 8 | 10-10 | 13 |
| 16 |
Bayer | 8 | 13-14 | 12 |
| 17 |
Borussia | 8 | 19-17 | 11 |
| 18 |
Olympiakos | 8 | 10-14 | 11 |
| 19 |
Club Brugge KV | 8 | 15-17 | 10 |
| 20 |
Galatasaray | 8 | 9-11 | 10 |
| 21 |
Monaco | 8 | 8-14 | 10 |
| 22 |
Qarabag | 8 | 13-21 | 10 |
| 23 |
Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 14-15 | 9 |
| 24 |
Benfica | 8 | 10-12 | 9 |
| 25 |
Marseille | 8 | 11-14 | 9 |
| 26 |
Pafos | 8 | 8-11 | 9 |
| 27 |
Union St. | 8 | 8-17 | 9 |
| 28 |
PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 16-16 | 8 |
| 29 |
Athletic Club | 8 | 9-14 | 8 |
| 30 |
Napoli | 8 | 9-15 | 8 |
| 31 |
FC Copenhagen | 8 | 12-21 | 8 |
| 32 |
Ajax | 8 | 8-21 | 6 |
| 33 |
Eintracht | 8 | 10-21 | 4 |
| 34 |
Slavia Praha | 8 | 5-19 | 3 |
| 35 |
Villarreal | 8 | 5-18 | 1 |
| 36 |
Kairat Almaty | 8 | 7-22 | 1 |
