Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Uruguay
Preview
The CA Cerro vs Liverpool M. Prediction for Friday, 20 February 2026 (kickoff 21:45 GMT) feels like a classic Uruguayan night: a bit scrappy, very tactical, and likely decided by one moment. Round 3 of the Apertura takes us to Estadio Luis Tróccoli in Montevideo (about 18,000 seats), where Cerro need points fast and Liverpool M. arrive with more quality—but also a suitcase full of travel fatigue.
Cerro sit 15th after a miserable start: two games, zero points, and still no goal scored. A 0–1 loss to Danubio was worrying; the 0–3 defeat to Albion was the kind of result that makes the coach’s phone buzz a little too often. Ignacio Pallas is already under pressure, and you can expect him to focus on stopping the bleeding before anything else.
Liverpool M. are 9th with a mixed opening: a 2–1 win over Albion, then a 1–2 loss to Defensor Sporting. The bigger story is scheduling. They’ve had Copa Libertadores duties just 48 hours before this fixture, and reports say that mid-week match was in Bergen, Norway—because apparently football calendars now come with frequent-flyer miles. Rotation looks likely.
Cerro’s best path to points is to make the game small. Pallas is expected to lean conservative (a 4-4-2 is the talk), keep lines tight, and rely on experience to calm the crowd if the first 20 minutes get messy. Brahian Alemán is the key reference in midfield, and new loan signing Juan Guasone should be asked to do a lot of the “serious defending” in the middle.
There are problems, though. Veteran goalkeeper Yonatan Irrazábal is out long-term with a cruciate ligament injury, and P. Silveira is also unavailable. That matters against a Liverpool side that can create chances even on an average day.
Liverpool M., under Camilo Speranza, usually line up 4-2-3-1 with steady build-up and a compact block. Speranza has spoken about tactical discipline but also a lack of end product—so don’t expect a goal festival. With minutes in the legs from travel and Libertadores, Liverpool may go more direct than usual, aiming to avoid the slow, draining kind of match Cerro want.
The head to head is nicely balanced historically (17 wins each across 43 meetings), and the last meeting on 2025-08-24 went Cerro’s way, 2–1. Interestingly, the betting odds that day still favored Liverpool (1.95) over Cerro (3.8), so Cerro have already shown they can flip expectations in this matchup.
On paper, Liverpool M. are the bigger project: squad value about €13.50m vs Cerro’s €4.38m. In the markets for this game, that gap shows too: home win 3.7, draw 3.0, away win 2.35.
Now for the numbers behind our CA Cerro vs Liverpool M. prediction. NerdyTips’ model points to Under 2.5 total goals as the most profitable angle (odds 1.5). Trust rating is 4.8/10—so not a “print money” pick, but it fits the match story: Cerro’s scoring drought, Liverpool’s rotation, and two coaches who prefer control over chaos.
We’re forecasting Liverpool to see more of the ball (44%–56%), but not to turn it into a flood of chances. Shots are projected at 8–9, with on-target efforts 2.35. Corners look moderate (3–5, total 8), and cards balanced (2–2). That profile usually points to a tense match where one goal can decide everything—exactly what Under 2.5 bettors like to hear.
Verdict: the betting odds make Liverpool M. rightful favorites, but with travel, rotation, and Cerro’s desperation, the safer story is still low total goals. If you want a fan’s takeaway: expect patience, long spells of shape, and maybe one decisive moment—preferably before everyone starts checking flights to Bergen.
Read More
Derby match
U2.5 -200
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -2001 270
CA Cerro is expected to win with odds of 270Under 2.5 -200
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -149
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U4.5 -116
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1:0
|
|
10
-
6
-
10
|
|
 CA Cerro |
24-Aug-25
2:1
| Liverpool M.  |
| Liverpool M. |
25-May-25
0:0
| CA Cerro |
| Liverpool M. |
22-Feb-25
2:1
| CA Cerro |
| CA Cerro |
30-Nov-24
1:3
| Liverpool M. |
| Liverpool M. |
21-Jul-24
0:1
| CA Cerro |
| Liverpool M. |
03-Jun-24
0:3
| CA Cerro |
| CA Cerro |
24-Nov-23
0:1
| Liverpool M. |
| CA Cerro |
08-Jul-23
1:0
| Liverpool M. |
| Liverpool M. |
24-Apr-23
1:1
| CA Cerro |
| CA Cerro |
14-Feb-21
1:1
| Liverpool M. |
Recent Matches of CA Cerro| 27 Feb |
CA Cerro
| - |
Boston River
| - | |
| 20 Feb | D |
CA Cerro
| 1 |
Liverpool M.
| 1 |
| 16 Feb | L |
Albion
| 3 |
CA Cerro
| 0 |
| 09 Feb | L |
CA Cerro
| 0 |
Danubio
| 1 |
| 15 Jan | L |
Racing M
| 2 |
CA Cerro
| 1 |
| 09 Nov | D |
CA Cerro
| 0 |
Boston River
| 0 |
| 01 Nov | D |
CA Cerro
| 0 |
Nacional
| 0 |
| 25 Oct | W |
CA Cerro
| 2 |
Penarol
| 0 |
| 18 Oct | W |
Torque
| 1 |
CA Cerro
| 2 |
| 12 Oct | W |
Cerro
| 1 |
Defensor
| 0 |
Recent Matches of Liverpool M.
| 01 Mar | Liverpool M. |
- |  Cerro Largo |
- | |
| 25 Feb | D |  Ind. Medellin |
0 | Liverpool M. |
0 |
| 20 Feb | D | CA Cerro |
1 | Liverpool M. |
1 |
| 18 Feb | L | Liverpool M. |
1 | Ind. Medellin |
2 |
| 14 Feb | L | Liverpool M. |
1 |  Defensor Sp. |
2 |
| 06 Feb | W |  Albion |
1 | Liverpool M. |
2 |
| 13 Jan | L | Liverpool M. |
0 | Albion |
2 |
| 16 Nov | L | Liverpool M. |
1 |  Penarol |
2 |
| 07 Nov | L | Cerro Largo |
2 | Liverpool M. |
0 |
| 01 Nov | L | Liverpool M. |
0 |  Juventud |
1 |
Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Central | 3 | 6-1 | 9 |
| 2 |
Club Nacional | 40 | 80-35 | 89 |
| 3 |
Penarol | 40 | 72-38 | 84 |
| 4 |
Deportivo | 3 | 7-4 | 6 |
| 5 |
Liverpool | 40 | 55-41 | 69 |
| 6 |
Defensor | 41 | 46-41 | 68 |
| 7 |
Juventud | 40 | 47-43 | 62 |
| 8 |
Racing | 40 | 46-43 | 57 |
| 9 |
Boston River | 40 | 51-43 | 56 |
| 10 |
Atletico | 41 | 62-56 | 56 |
| 11 |
Albion FC | 3 | 4-2 | 4 |
| 12 |
Cerro Largo | 40 | 43-44 | 52 |
| 13 |
Danubio | 40 | 44-45 | 49 |
| 14 |
Cerro | 40 | 34-47 | 48 |
| 15 |
Progreso | 40 | 38-66 | 39 |
| 16 |
Wanderers | 40 | 28-53 | 35 |
