Cerro Largo vs Wanderers Prediction

Cerro Largo vs Wanderers prediction for Feb 13, 2026

The Cerro Largo vs Wanderers prediction story writes itself: a long trip to Melo, a tricky pitch at the Ubilla, and two teams who already showed in Round 1 that they can be hard to beat. This Uruguayan Primera División Apertura (Round 2) meeting kicks off at 22:00 GMT on 2026-02-13 at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, and it feels like one of those nights where the small details decide the points.

Cerro Largo arrive with a quiet confidence after winning 1-0 away at Juventud de Las Piedras. The key moment was a classic “Melo football” goal: a 26th-minute header from Tiziano Correa, created by a sharp cross from Bruno Hernández. Danielo Núñez, still doing Danielo Núñez things in one of his many spells in charge, will happily take that recipe again—solid shape first, then direct punches when the chance is there.

Wanderers, meanwhile, started with a 1-1 draw at home to Defensor Sporting. Luciano Cosentino got the goal, and the assist from Jonathan Urretaviscaya was a reminder that experience still matters when games get messy. It’s only the second competitive match for new coach Mathías Corujo, who’s trying to bring back a more proactive Wanderers identity—while also openly wishing for a reliable center-forward to turn decent spells into goals.

What to watch: styles, absences, and the Melo factor

There’s a clear coaching contrast here: Núñez has seen every type of Uruguayan league match imaginable, while Corujo is still laying down new rules and habits. And the location matters. Montevideo teams rarely enjoy the travel to Melo, and Cerro Largo know exactly how to make the night feel longer for visitors.

• Cerro Largo tactics: pragmatic, compact, and comfortable going direct, especially at home where second balls become a lifestyle.
• Wanderers tactics: Corujo wants more initiative, but this team may need to be patient until the final-third chemistry improves.
• Injuries: Wanderers have longer-term issues—Guillermo Borthagaray (ACL), Joaquín Zeballos (fibula fissure), and Nahuel Furtado (broken nose bone, day-to-day). Cerro Largo have no major fresh concerns reported after Round 1.
• Extra spice: Wanderers signing Alan García from Cerro Largo adds a small “prove a point” angle if he features.

The head to head notes also add texture. The last meeting on 2025-09-01 finished 1-0 to Wanderers, when Cerro Largo couldn’t find a reply. Yet locals still remember that big Cerro Largo win in late 2024—proof that this fixture can swing wildly depending on who lands the first punch.

Cerro Largo vs Wanderers prediction: odds, tips, and value

Let’s talk sports betting and what the numbers suggest. The current betting odds list Cerro Largo at 2.32 for the home win, the draw at 3.05, and Wanderers at 3.6. On paper, squad value slightly favors the visitors—Cerro Largo at €5.93m versus Wanderers at €6.82m—but this is Uruguay: the bus ride can be worth more than a few extra euros of market value.

NerdyTips AI picks for Cerro Largo vs Wanderers

Our model leans toward the home side not losing, which fits the “Ubilla is a tough address” theme and Cerro Largo’s clean-sheet start.

1. Main tip (safe): 1X at 1.36, confidence 4.8/10. This covers a Cerro Largo win or draw and matches the idea that Núñez will keep this structured.
2. 1X2 prediction: 1 (home win) at 2.32, trust 3.8. Not a “mortgage bet,” but it’s where the model points if you want the bigger price.
3. Goals market: Over 1.5 goals at 1.5, confidence 3.6. Cerro Largo can be direct, Wanderers can create through Urretaviscaya, and one early goal could open the game.

Score-wise, the AI’s expected script is 2:1, with 1:0 at half-time. That’s basically the classic Melo evening: Cerro Largo edging in front, Wanderers trying to play their way back into it, and everyone checking the clock like it owes them money.

Final word for this Cerro Largo vs Wanderers prediction: if you want steadier ground, 1X looks like the most sensible path. If you’re chasing a bit more value in the sports betting markets, the home win at 2.32 is the bolder option, and over 1.5 goals has a friendly price for a match that could loosen up after the first breakthrough.