Ceuta vs Cordoba Prediction

Ceuta vs Cordoba prediction: storm-delayed points and nerves

Ceuta vs Cordoba prediction starts with a simple image: a midweek trip to the North African coast that was supposed to happen earlier, then got pushed back after storms Leonardo and Marta made travel to Ceuta a real headache. Now it finally lands on 2026-02-25 at 18:00 GMT, and the reschedule has turned a normal league date into a little test of rhythm, depth, and patience.

Context, stakes, and why the Alfonso Murube matters

The Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube is small enough to feel every tackle, and loud enough to make visiting full-backs forget how to pass. Ceuta have built a reputation as a tough home side, while Córdoba arrive higher in the table (around 7th) and with promotion pressure hanging off every point like a heavy winter coat.

José Juan Romero has been clear: Ceuta cannot win by being cautious. His message is basically “be ourselves, and do it at 200%.” Iván Ania, meanwhile, has praised Ceuta’s aggressive pressing and their ability to keep the ball and “subjugate” opponents. Translation: Córdoba expect a long evening with very few quiet minutes.

Team news and tactical storylines

Ceuta’s main threat is Marcos Fernández (7 league goals), and Kuki Zalazar is the creative hub who keeps attacks moving. There have been bumps: a controversial red card for Fernández recently, plus long-term injuries for Manuel Sánchez and Jamelli. The good news? Guillermo Vallejo has been excellent in goal, a key reason Ceuta’s home defensive record has kept the “fortress” label alive.

Córdoba bring more star power in the final third. Adrián Fuentes (10 goals) is the headline finisher, with Jacobo González offering quality between the lines and Cristian Carracedo supplying from wide areas. They have also had a minor injury crisis, but several names have been cleared to return (Rubén Alves, Juan Alcedo, Alberto del Moral). Carlos Albarrán’s suspension worries have eased too, and he’s expected to be available.

• Ceuta’s route to points: press high, feed Fernández early, and make the Murube atmosphere count.
• Córdoba’s route to points: survive the first wave, then use wider delivery and better depth late on.
• Fitness subplot: the storm postponement created a pile-up; Córdoba’s legs in the final 20 minutes could be the swing factor.

Head to head and recent “we didn’t see that coming” moments

The head to head leans Córdoba historically: unbeaten in the last 7 meetings (3 wins, 4 draws). The last direct meeting on 2024-02-18 ended 1-1, with betting odds slightly favoring Ceuta (2.51) over Córdoba (2.7), so it was tight even then.

Both teams have recent proof they can break scripts. Ceuta’s wild 3.3 draw away at Castellón (2025-09-14) came with huge win odds of 6.0. Córdoba’s 2-3 win away at Oviedo (2024-12-21) was another surprise, priced around 5.0. In other words: neither side panics when the plot turns strange.

NerdyTips betting view: markets, numbers, and a likely score

Now to the part that pays for the snacks: our Ceuta vs Cordoba prediction leans toward goals and an away contribution. The 1X2 betting odds sit at 2.92 (Ceuta), 3.3 (draw), 2.92 (Córdoba), suggesting a near coin-flip with a slight nudge to the visitors.

Best tips based on our data

• AS (Away team to score): trust 8.8/10, odds 1.29. With Córdoba’s attacking pieces and projected 15 shots (5 on target), this is the cleanest angle.
• Over 1.5 total goals: trust 6.1/10, odds 1.29. The model sees enough chance creation to avoid a 0-0 grind.
• 1X2: Away win (2): trust 6.0/10, odds 2.92. Not “free money,” but priced fairly if Córdoba manage the Murube storm properly.

The match math supports the story: projected possession is 46% Ceuta vs 54% Córdoba, shots 13 vs 15, corners 4 vs 6 (10 total), and cards 2-1. Córdoba also carry the higher squad value (€15.80m vs €12.45m), a small edge that often shows up late when benches matter.

Expected final score: 1-2, with a half-time lean of 0-1. If Ceuta make it chaotic early, great for the spectacle. If Córdoba keep their heads, it looks like the kind of night where the away side leaves with points and Ceuta leave with plenty of noise.