Ceuta vs Granada CF Prediction

Ceuta vs Granada CF prediction for Feb 20: turf, tactics, and tips

Mark your calendars for 2026-02-20 at 19:30 GMT, because this Ceuta vs Granada CF prediction preview has a little bit of everything: tricky travel, an artificial pitch, and two teams who would love a calm night after a season full of plot twists. The Round 27 meeting in the Spanish Segunda División (LaLiga Hypermotion) takes place at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, where Ceuta’s home comfort often turns visiting sides slightly dizzy—sometimes from the tempo, sometimes from the ferry schedule.

In the table, AD Ceuta FC sit 12th with 35 points, while Granada CF are 15th on 32, so it’s not a title decider—but it is the kind of match that decides whether spring feels relaxing or stressful. Ceuta’s recent run has been uneven (L-L-W-L-L), and their latest outing ended with a 2-0 away loss at Huesca. Still, most of their good work has been done at home, where the artificial surface helps their possession game stick and zip. Granada arrive in much better mood after a loud 5-1 win over Valladolid, and their recent form (W-L-W-W-D) looks more like what you’d expect from a club still carrying top-flight expectations.

How the game may look: styles, absences, and small advantages

José Juan Romero usually wants Ceuta to keep the ball and keep moving it, using the wings for quick changes of pace. On this pitch, that approach can feel like playing on fast-forward, especially for opponents used to natural grass. Granada’s Pacheta has leaned into an attacking 4-3-3 lately, and after scoring five last time out, he’s unlikely to rip up the plan—though he must patch the right side of defense due to Ricard Sánchez being suspended after a straight red.

• Ceuta team news: Manuel Sánchez and Jamelli are out, while Aboubacar Bassinga and Youness need late fitness checks.
• Granada team news: Miguel Ángel Brau and Pablo Insua are sidelined with muscle issues, and the right-back spot needs a replacement.
• Key attackers: Marcos Fernández (Ceuta) has 7 goals; Granada’s scoring is shared among Pedro Aleman, Gonzalo Petit, and Jorge Pascual with 5 each.

There’s also context worth keeping in mind for head to head and mentality. These teams drew 1-1 in the reverse fixture in December 2025 at Nuevo Los Cármenes, a result that fits the “tight margins” theme. Ceuta, in their first Segunda season since 1968, have treated home games like a small fortress—helped by distance, logistics, and that artificial turf. And both clubs have shown they can surprise: Ceuta’s wild 3-3 away draw at Castellón in September 2025 came with long odds, while Granada grabbed a 1-1 at Athletic Club back in April 2024 despite being priced as a huge outsider.

Ceuta vs Granada CF prediction: betting odds and NerdyTips picks

The market sees this as close. The betting odds list a home win at 2.772, the draw at 3.15, and an away win at 2.77—basically a “pick your argument” game for sports betting fans. On paper, Granada carry more financial weight (squad value €21.90m vs Ceuta’s €12.45m), but Ceuta’s home edge is real enough that the away price doesn’t scream “free money.”

What our numbers are pointing to

NerdyTips leans cautious on goals. The best tip is under 3.5 goals (max three total) with odds of 1.25 and a trust level of 4.4/10, and our under/over prediction agrees: under 3.5 at 1.25 with confidence 4.5. That lines up with the tactical feel—Ceuta wanting control, Granada needing to adjust defensively on the road, and both knowing one mistake can flip the mood quickly.

For the 1x2 side, the AI-generated pick is X2 (Granada or draw) with odds set at 1.5 and a calculated trust of 2.0. That lower trust fits the reality: Ceuta at home can bend expectations, while Granada’s form is improving but still not immune to awkward away nights.

• Predicted final score: 0:2
• Half-time score call: 0:1
• Possession forecast: Ceuta 52% / Granada 48%
• Shots: 13 vs 12; on target 5 vs 3
• Corners: 4-4 (8 total); yellow cards: 2-2

Put together, this Ceuta vs Granada CF prediction reads like a match where Ceuta may see plenty of the ball and even test the keeper, but Granada’s efficiency could decide it. If you’re approaching this with sports betting in mind, the under 3.5 goals looks like the sensible “keep it simple” angle—because in Segunda, goals often arrive late, unexpected, and with zero respect for your weekend plans.