Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa Prediction

Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa prediction for Friday in Varna

The Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa prediction for February 20, 2026 (15:45 GMT) comes with a familiar First League mood: Cherno More trying to turn control into goals, and Botev Vratsa trying to turn small moments into points. It’s at Ticha Stadium in Varna, where visiting sides often learn that “nice possession” does not always survive a cold sea breeze.

Team news, form and what the coaches want

Cherno More, guided by long-serving Ilian Iliev, usually look disciplined in a 4-2-3-1. They are fifth with 34 points, but the spring restart has been a bit sticky: a 0-0 derby against Spartak Varna, then a 1-1 with Lokomotiv Plovdiv where they still could not finish the job even with a man advantage for more than an hour. Iliev has openly pointed to a lack of calm in the final 30 meters—football language for “we get there, then panic.”

• Key threat: Georgi Lazarov leads their scoring with 7 goals.
• Injury concerns: Panov and Dani Martín are sidelined, which matters in a system that likes full-backs to give width.
• Suspension watch: Drobarov and Zlatev sit one yellow away from a ban.

Botev Vratsa arrive 10th with 25 points and a very practical mission: keep distance from the bottom four. Todor Simov’s away approach is normally compact and counter-attacking, and that makes sense with Martin Petkov (4 goals) being their main outlet. Recent results are not gentle reading—1-3 against Levski, and a 2-3 Cup exit to Arda—plus they played Dobrudzha on Feb 16, so recovery time is shorter than Cherno More’s.

• Missing: Martin Achkov is injured.
• Discipline risk: Genov and Smolenski are also one booking from suspension.

Head to head notes and the “Ticha factor”

In head to head terms, Cherno More have historically had the edge: 13 wins in the last 20 meetings, with Vratsa taking 4. The last H2H on 2023.58-12 ended 2-1 for Cherno More, but Vratsa did shock them 1-0 earlier this season (Aug 29, 2025). Ticha is still a big reason the home betting odds lean their way (home win 1.575, draw 3.5, away win 5.75), with Cherno More conceding roughly 0.7 goals per home match this season.

NerdyTips match prediction: markets, stats and best bets

For this Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa prediction, NerdyTips points to a game where control does not automatically mean a goal-fest. The best tip is under 2.5 goals at 1.57, trust rating 6.4/10 (confidence 6.5). That fits the tactical picture: Cherno More dominating territory, Vratsa sitting deep, and both sides carrying a few defensive absences that often lead to safer choices rather than wild risks.

• AI final score call: 0:1
• Half-time prediction: 0:0
• Possession: 60% Cherno More, 40% Vratsa
• Shots: 14 vs 6 (on target 4 vs 2)
• Corners: 8 total (6-2)
• Cards: 2-2

Those numbers read like a classic sports betting trap for home backers: Cherno More with more ball, more corners, more attempts… and still a tight scoreline. If Vratsa keep it low and slow, the under 2.5 looks supported by the projected 0-0 at the break and the limited on-target volume.

What about the 1X2 angle?

NerdyTips’ AI suggests the away win (“2”) at 5.75, but with a low trust score (1.57). In plain words: it’s a long-shot. Still, Vratsa have shown they can steal big results on the road—like that 0-2 win at Arda when priced around 5.0—and Cherno More have also shown they can grind tough away draws (0-0 at CSKA Sofia as 5.5 outsiders). If you want the safest story, the data keeps pulling back to under 2.5 goals, with the 1X2 upset more of a spicy side dish than the main meal.