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20 Feb10:45
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Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa Prediction First League

Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa prediction for Friday in Varna

The Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa prediction for February 20, 2026 (15:45 GMT) comes with a familiar First League mood: Cherno More trying to turn control into goals, and Botev Vratsa trying to turn small moments into points. It’s at Ticha Stadium in Varna, where visiting sides often learn that “nice possession” does not always survive a cold sea breeze.

Team news, form and what the coaches want

Cherno More, guided by long-serving Ilian Iliev, usually look disciplined in a 4-2-3-1. They are fifth with 34 points, but the spring restart has been a bit sticky: a 0-0 derby against Spartak Varna, then a 1-1 with Lokomotiv Plovdiv where they still could not finish the job even with a man advantage for more than an hour. Iliev has openly pointed to a lack of calm in the final 30 meters—football language for “we get there, then panic.”

  • Key threat: Georgi Lazarov leads their scoring with 7 goals.
  • Injury concerns: Panov and Dani Martín are sidelined, which matters in a system that likes full-backs to give width.
  • Suspension watch: Drobarov and Zlatev sit one yellow away from a ban.

Botev Vratsa arrive 10th with 25 points and a very practical mission: keep distance from the bottom four. Todor Simov’s away approach is normally compact and counter-attacking, and that makes sense with Martin Petkov (4 goals) being their main outlet. Recent results are not gentle reading—1-3 against Levski, and a 2-3 Cup exit to Arda—plus they played Dobrudzha on Feb 16, so recovery time is shorter than Cherno More’s.

  • Missing: Martin Achkov is injured.
  • Discipline risk: Genov and Smolenski are also one booking from suspension.

Head to head notes and the “Ticha factor”

In head to head terms, Cherno More have historically had the edge: 13 wins in the last 20 meetings, with Vratsa taking 4. The last H2H on 2023.88-12 ended 2-1 for Cherno More, but Vratsa did shock them 1-0 earlier this season (Aug 29, 2025). Ticha is still a big reason the home betting odds lean their way (home win 1.65, draw 3.8, away win 7.5), with Cherno More conceding roughly 0.7 goals per home match this season.

NerdyTips match prediction: markets, stats and best bets

For this Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa prediction, NerdyTips points to a game where control does not automatically mean a goal-fest. The best tip is under 2.5 goals at 1.6, trust rating 6.4/10 (confidence 7.5). That fits the tactical picture: Cherno More dominating territory, Vratsa sitting deep, and both sides carrying a few defensive absences that often lead to safer choices rather than wild risks.

  • AI final score call: 0:1
  • Half-time prediction: 0:0
  • Possession: 60% Cherno More, 40% Vratsa
  • Shots: 14 vs 6 (on target 4 vs 2)
  • Corners: 8 total (6-2)
  • Cards: 2-2

Those numbers read like a classic sports betting trap for home backers: Cherno More with more ball, more corners, more attempts… and still a tight scoreline. If Vratsa keep it low and slow, the under 2.5 looks supported by the projected 0-0 at the break and the limited on-target volume.

What about the 1X2 angle?

NerdyTips’ AI suggests the away win (“2”) at 7.5, but with a low trust score (1.6). In plain words: it’s a long-shot. Still, Vratsa have shown they can steal big results on the road—like that 0-2 win at Arda when priced around 5.0—and Cherno More have also shown they can grind tough away draws (0-0 at CSKA Sofia as 5.5 outsiders). If you want the safest story, the data keeps pulling back to under 2.5 goals, with the 1X2 upset more of a spicy side dish than the main meal.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa

U2.5 -167

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -167
6/10

1x2 Tip

2 650

Botev Vratsa is expected to win with odds of 650
1/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -167

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
6/10

Both Teams To Score

No -175

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 189

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:1

Stats Predictions

60%
Ball Possession
40%
14
Total Shots
6
4
Shots on Goal
2
9
Shots Off Goal
4
6
Corners
2
2
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

2.2
Total Goals
1.9
1.5
Goals Scored
0.9
0.7
Goals Against
1

Overview Last 10 Matches

5
Wins
1
6
Over 1.5 Goals
6
4
Over 2.5 Goals
3
1
Over 3.5 Goals
3
2
Both Teams Scored
5
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Cherno More
11 - 3 - 3
Botev Vratsa
Cherno More Cherno More 20-Feb-26
0:0
Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 29-Aug-25
1:0
Cherno More Cherno More
Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 07-Dec-24
2:3
Cherno More Cherno More
Cherno More Cherno More 12-Aug-24
2:1
Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa
Cherno More Cherno More 01-Mar-24
2:1
Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 01-Sep-23
0:1
Cherno More Cherno More
Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 29-Jun-23
3:1
Cherno More Cherno More
Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 21-Apr-23
0:2
Cherno More Cherno More
Cherno More Cherno More 30-Sep-22
2:1
Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa

Profile time Recent Matches of Cherno More

09 Apr Ludogorets Ludogorets - Cherno M Cherno M -
05 AprL Cherno M Cherno M 1 Slavia Sofia Slavia Sofia 3
21 MarL Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 2 Cherno More Cherno More 1
15 MarW Cherno More Cherno More 1 Montana Montana 0
07 MarW Septemvri Septemvri 0 Cherno More Cherno More 3
04 MarD Cherno More Cherno More 0 Arda Arda 0
28 FebL Dobrudzha Dobrudzha 2 Cherno More Cherno More 1
20 FebD Cherno More Cherno More 0 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 0
15 FebD Lok. Plovdiv Lok. Plovdiv 1 Cherno More Cherno More 1
07 FebD Cherno More Cherno More 0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 0

Profile time Recent Matches of Botev Vratsa

10 AprCSKA 1948 CSKA 1948 - Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa -
06 AprDSeptemvri Septemvri 0 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 0
22 MarLBotev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 1 Lok. Plovdiv Lok. Plovdiv 2
14 MarWBotev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 1 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 3
07 MarWBotev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 1 Arda Arda 0
04 MarLCSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 1 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 0
28 FebDBotev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 0 Beroe Beroe 0
20 FebDCherno More Cherno More 0 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 0
16 FebDBotev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 0 Dobrudzha Dobrudzha 0
11 FebLBotev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 2 Arda Arda 3

Bulgaria - First League Bulgaria - First League

Team M G P
1 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia2862-2166
2 Ludogorets Ludogorets2857-1959
3 CSKA 1948 CSKA 19482845-3153
4 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia2841-2252
5 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv2829-3244
6 Cherno More Varna Cherno More2833-2243
7 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali2832-2641
8 Slavia Sofia Slavia Sofia2835-3138
9 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv2836-3636
10 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa2821-2335
11 Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv2836-3534
12 Dobrudzha Dobrudzha2823-3926
13 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna2824-5023
14 Beroe Beroe2818-4222
15 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri2823-5722
16 Montana Montana2815-4416
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