Preview
The Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa prediction for February 20, 2026 (15:45 GMT) comes with a familiar First League mood: Cherno More trying to turn control into goals, and Botev Vratsa trying to turn small moments into points. It’s at Ticha Stadium in Varna, where visiting sides often learn that “nice possession” does not always survive a cold sea breeze.
Cherno More, guided by long-serving Ilian Iliev, usually look disciplined in a 4-2-3-1. They are fifth with 34 points, but the spring restart has been a bit sticky: a 0-0 derby against Spartak Varna, then a 1-1 with Lokomotiv Plovdiv where they still could not finish the job even with a man advantage for more than an hour. Iliev has openly pointed to a lack of calm in the final 30 meters—football language for “we get there, then panic.”
Botev Vratsa arrive 10th with 25 points and a very practical mission: keep distance from the bottom four. Todor Simov’s away approach is normally compact and counter-attacking, and that makes sense with Martin Petkov (4 goals) being their main outlet. Recent results are not gentle reading—1-3 against Levski, and a 2-3 Cup exit to Arda—plus they played Dobrudzha on Feb 16, so recovery time is shorter than Cherno More’s.
In head to head terms, Cherno More have historically had the edge: 13 wins in the last 20 meetings, with Vratsa taking 4. The last H2H on 2023.88-12 ended 2-1 for Cherno More, but Vratsa did shock them 1-0 earlier this season (Aug 29, 2025). Ticha is still a big reason the home betting odds lean their way (home win 1.65, draw 3.8, away win 7.5), with Cherno More conceding roughly 0.7 goals per home match this season.
For this Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa prediction, NerdyTips points to a game where control does not automatically mean a goal-fest. The best tip is under 2.5 goals at 1.6, trust rating 6.4/10 (confidence 7.5). That fits the tactical picture: Cherno More dominating territory, Vratsa sitting deep, and both sides carrying a few defensive absences that often lead to safer choices rather than wild risks.
Those numbers read like a classic sports betting trap for home backers: Cherno More with more ball, more corners, more attempts… and still a tight scoreline. If Vratsa keep it low and slow, the under 2.5 looks supported by the projected 0-0 at the break and the limited on-target volume.
NerdyTips’ AI suggests the away win (“2”) at 7.5, but with a low trust score (1.6). In plain words: it’s a long-shot. Still, Vratsa have shown they can steal big results on the road—like that 0-2 win at Arda when priced around 5.0—and Cherno More have also shown they can grind tough away draws (0-0 at CSKA Sofia as 5.5 outsiders). If you want the safest story, the data keeps pulling back to under 2.5 goals, with the 1X2 upset more of a spicy side dish than the main meal.
The Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa prediction for February 20, 2026 (15:45 GMT) comes with a familiar First League mood: Cherno More trying to turn control into goals, and Botev Vratsa trying to turn small moments into points. It’s at Ticha Stadium in Varna, where visiting sides often learn that “nice possession” does not always survive a cold sea breeze.
Cherno More, guided by long-serving Ilian Iliev, usually look disciplined in a 4-2-3-1. They are fifth with 34 points, but the spring restart has been a bit sticky: a 0-0 derby against Spartak Varna, then a 1-1 with Lokomotiv Plovdiv where they still could not finish the job even with a man advantage for more than an hour. Iliev has openly pointed to a lack of calm in the final 30 meters—football language for “we get there, then panic.”
Botev Vratsa arrive 10th with 25 points and a very practical mission: keep distance from the bottom four. Todor Simov’s away approach is normally compact and counter-attacking, and that makes sense with Martin Petkov (4 goals) being their main outlet. Recent results are not gentle reading—1-3 against Levski, and a 2-3 Cup exit to Arda—plus they played Dobrudzha on Feb 16, so recovery time is shorter than Cherno More’s.
In head to head terms, Cherno More have historically had the edge: 13 wins in the last 20 meetings, with Vratsa taking 4. The last H2H on 2023.88-12 ended 2-1 for Cherno More, but Vratsa did shock them 1-0 earlier this season (Aug 29, 2025). Ticha is still a big reason the home betting odds lean their way (home win 1.65, draw 3.8, away win 7.5), with Cherno More conceding roughly 0.7 goals per home match this season.
For this Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa prediction, NerdyTips points to a game where control does not automatically mean a goal-fest. The best tip is under 2.5 goals at 1.6, trust rating 6.4/10 (confidence 7.5). That fits the tactical picture: Cherno More dominating territory, Vratsa sitting deep, and both sides carrying a few defensive absences that often lead to safer choices rather than wild risks.
Those numbers read like a classic sports betting trap for home backers: Cherno More with more ball, more corners, more attempts… and still a tight scoreline. If Vratsa keep it low and slow, the under 2.5 looks supported by the projected 0-0 at the break and the limited on-target volume.
NerdyTips’ AI suggests the away win (“2”) at 7.5, but with a low trust score (1.6). In plain words: it’s a long-shot. Still, Vratsa have shown they can steal big results on the road—like that 0-2 win at Arda when priced around 5.0—and Cherno More have also shown they can grind tough away draws (0-0 at CSKA Sofia as 5.5 outsiders). If you want the safest story, the data keeps pulling back to under 2.5 goals, with the 1X2 upset more of a spicy side dish than the main meal.
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U2.5 -167
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -1672 650
Botev Vratsa is expected to win with odds of 650Under 2.5 -167
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -175
At least one team is not expected to scoreX2&U4.5 189
Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
0:1
|
11
-
3
-
3
|
|
Cherno More |
20-Feb-26
0:0
| Botev Vratsa ![]() |
Botev Vratsa |
29-Aug-25
1:0
| Cherno More ![]() |
Botev Vratsa |
07-Dec-24
2:3
| Cherno More ![]() |
Cherno More |
12-Aug-24
2:1
| Botev Vratsa ![]() |
Cherno More |
01-Mar-24
2:1
| Botev Vratsa ![]() |
Botev Vratsa |
01-Sep-23
0:1
| Cherno More ![]() |
Botev Vratsa |
29-Jun-23
3:1
| Cherno More ![]() |
Botev Vratsa |
21-Apr-23
0:2
| Cherno More ![]() |
Cherno More |
30-Sep-22
2:1
| Botev Vratsa ![]() |
| 09 Apr |
Ludogorets
| - |
Cherno M
| - | |
| 05 Apr | L |
Cherno M
| 1 |
Slavia Sofia
| 3 |
| 21 Mar | L |
Levski Sofia
| 2 |
Cherno More
| 1 |
| 15 Mar | W |
Cherno More
| 1 |
Montana
| 0 |
| 07 Mar | W |
Septemvri
| 0 |
Cherno More
| 3 |
| 04 Mar | D |
Cherno More
| 0 |
Arda
| 0 |
| 28 Feb | L |
Dobrudzha
| 2 |
Cherno More
| 1 |
| 20 Feb | D |
Cherno More
| 0 |
Botev Vratsa
| 0 |
| 15 Feb | D |
Lok. Plovdiv
| 1 |
Cherno More
| 1 |
| 07 Feb | D |
Cherno More
| 0 |
Spartak Varna
| 0 |
| 10 Apr | CSKA 1948 |
- | Botev Vratsa |
- | |
| 06 Apr | D | Septemvri |
0 | Botev Vratsa |
0 |
| 22 Mar | L | Botev Vratsa |
1 | Lok. Plovdiv |
2 |
| 14 Mar | W | Botev Plovdiv |
1 | Botev Vratsa |
3 |
| 07 Mar | W | Botev Vratsa |
1 | Arda |
0 |
| 04 Mar | L | CSKA Sofia |
1 | Botev Vratsa |
0 |
| 28 Feb | D | Botev Vratsa |
0 | Beroe |
0 |
| 20 Feb | D | Cherno More |
0 | Botev Vratsa |
0 |
| 16 Feb | D | Botev Vratsa |
0 | Dobrudzha |
0 |
| 11 Feb | L | Botev Vratsa |
2 | Arda |
3 |
Bulgaria - First League| Team | M | G | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Levski Sofia | 28 | 62-21 | 66 |
| 2 |
Ludogorets | 28 | 57-19 | 59 |
| 3 |
CSKA 1948 | 28 | 45-31 | 53 |
| 4 |
CSKA Sofia | 28 | 41-22 | 52 |
| 5 |
Lokomotiv | 28 | 29-32 | 44 |
| 6 |
Cherno More | 28 | 33-22 | 43 |
| 7 |
Arda Kardzhali | 28 | 32-26 | 41 |
| 8 |
Slavia Sofia | 28 | 35-31 | 38 |
| 9 |
Botev Plovdiv | 28 | 36-36 | 36 |
| 10 |
Botev Vratsa | 28 | 21-23 | 35 |
| 11 |
Lokomotiv | 28 | 36-35 | 34 |
| 12 |
Dobrudzha | 28 | 23-39 | 26 |
| 13 |
Spartak Varna | 28 | 24-50 | 23 |
| 14 |
Beroe | 28 | 18-42 | 22 |
| 15 |
Septemvri | 28 | 23-57 | 22 |
| 16 |
Montana | 28 | 15-44 | 16 |