CSKA Sofia vs Arda Prediction

CSKA Sofia vs Arda prediction: home edge at Vasil Levski

The CSKA Sofia vs Arda prediction for Friday, 2026-02-06 (15:45 GMT) comes with a familiar Sofia winter feeling: a big club chasing the top places, a tricky visitor with nothing to lose, and plenty of betting odds pointing one way. This Parva Liga match will be played at the Vasil Levski National Stadium, with CSKA temporarily away from their usual Balgarska Armiya home due to reconstruction.

CSKA head into the restart sitting 5th with 31 points, and they didn’t exactly crawl into the winter break. Their last six league games read DWWWW — five wins, lots of momentum, and the sort of run that makes fans start checking the table more often than they admit. Arda are 10th with 24 points, but their recent form (WDWDW) suggests they’re not here to park the bus for 90 minutes and say thanks.

Storylines, tactics, and team news before kick-off

CSKA’s winter was busy. Hristo Yanev, appointed late in 2025, used the Belek camp in Turkey to speed up chemistry after a wave of new faces arrived. The plan looks straightforward: more aggression, more speed wide, and more service to Leandro Godoy, who leads the scoring with 10 goals. If it clicks early, Arda could spend a long afternoon chasing shadows.

• CSKA approach: Yanev has been testing a more attacking setup, leaning on new wingers Leo Pereira and Alejandro Piedrahita to stretch teams and open lanes.
• Arda approach: Aleksandar Tunchev usually keeps Arda compact, then looks for quick counters through experienced midfield legs like Ivelin Popov and the finishing of Birsent Karageren.
• Venue note: Vasil Levski isn’t CSKA’s classic home, but the pitch and space can actually suit fast wide play.

Transfers add another layer to this sports betting puzzle. CSKA boosted depth with Piedrahita, Max Ebong, Leo Pereira, Andrey Yordanov, Isaac Solet, and goalkeeper Dimitar Evtimov. Arda added Wilson Samaké (loan) and defender M. Paskalev, but also lost Ivan Tilev and I. Kazakov. It’s the kind of window where CSKA look built to push for top-3, while Arda look built to stay stable and sneak points.

Injuries, suspension risks, and what they might change

• CSKA absences: Dimitar Nikolov (knee ligaments) is out until late February; Solet is recovering from a cruciate issue; Bruno Jordão has an ankle problem; Ulaus Skarshem has a minor back issue and is being monitored.
• Arda absences: Georgi Nikolov is out long-term; Antonio Vutov has had calf/ankle discomfort.
• Suspension watch: Arda’s Dimitar Velkovski, Svetoslav Kovachev, and David Idowu are one yellow away from a ban—worth noting for in-play markets and late-game caution.

For head to head fans, the long-term numbers lean strongly CSKA (12 wins to Arda’s 2, plus 6 draws). Still, Arda did win 1–0 in September 2025, so CSKA won’t need extra motivation. And the last recorded meeting on 2025-02-26 ended 2–1 for CSKA, with CSKA priced at 1.44 and Arda at 6.5—very similar to today’s market mood.

CSKA Sofia vs Arda prediction: odds, tips, and best bets

The match betting odds are clear: Home win 1.5, Draw 3.9, Away win 7.25. That doesn’t mean Arda are harmless (ask Ludogorets, who watched Arda win away at 7.25 odds in a wild 2–3 on 2025-11-09), but it does tell you what the market expects most often.

Our CSKA Sofia vs Arda prediction, based on NerdyTips’ numbers, leans into that expectation—just with a little context from the stats.

• Best wager: 1 (CSKA to win) at 1.5 odds, confidence 6.1/10
• 1X2 pick: 1 with trust 6.1 and odds 1.5
• Goals pick: Over 1.5 goals at 1.35, confidence 3.9/10
• Predicted score: 2–1 (half-time 1–0)

The projected match flow supports that home-win angle. CSKA are expected to see around 62% possession to Arda’s 38%, with a shot count forecast of 18–6 and on-target 7.25. That’s not a guarantee of goals, but it usually translates into more pressure, more second balls, and more moments where the away keeper starts negotiating with the posts.

Corners also hint at territory: a total of 10 is estimated, with 8 for CSKA and 2 for Arda. That fits an attacking home team and a defending visitor. Cards are expected to be low-ish (1 for CSKA, 2 for Arda), which can help game rhythm and make the over 1.5 a sensible “keep it simple” option for beginner bettors.

Put it all together—squad values (€18.80m vs €11.68m), stronger league position, better recent run, and the predicted game stats—and the cleanest sports betting route looks like backing the home win. Arda have shown they can steal a result, but CSKA at home should have enough firepower to land a 2–1 and keep their top-3 chase alive.