Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Uruguay
Preview
The Danubio vs Progreso prediction for February 28, 2026 (20:00 GMT) points to a tight game in Montevideo, with Danubio’s home control meeting a Progreso side still searching for its first league goal. This is Round 4 of the Uruguayan Primera División Apertura at Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo, a ground where Danubio usually look twice as comfortable as visiting teams.
Danubio come into this one sitting 6th after a decent start (2 wins, 1 loss). That “1 loss” was a loud one: a 4.0 defeat away to Racing on February 21 that stopped their early momentum. The good news for “Los de la Curva” is that their home record in this Apertura is perfect so far, and Jardines del Hipódromo remains one of those stadiums where the stands feel close and the pressure rises fast.
Progreso, meanwhile, are 16th and already playing catch-up. They have lost all three matches (Central Español, Deportivo Maldonado, and Nacional) and the biggest worry is simple: they still have 0 goals this season, meaning they’ve gone more than 2.12 league minutes without scoring. If you’re a beginner bettor, that single stat alone explains why the market leans home.
Danubio coach Diego Monarriz, remembered for guiding Juventud to a historic Libertadores qualification in 2025, tends to push an aggressive plan at home. Expect a 4-3.25 or 4-2-3-1 with wing play and pressure high up the pitch, trying to box Progreso in. Nicolás Azambuja’s wide work is key to stretching a compact defense, while Maicol Ferreira (2 goals) is the early finisher in this squad.
Progreso coach Leonel Rocco is under clear pressure, and the likely response is a deeper, tighter block with counters rather than open football. Gonzalo Silva and Adrian Colombino bring experience, but they also need service—and lately Progreso have not been creating enough to force mistakes.
There’s also a narrative edge: this fixture previously contributed to Danubio changing coach last year after a 1-0 defeat to Progreso. Danubio supporters will not forget that quickly.
The most recent head to head on 2025-02-23 ended 1-1, with Danubio priced shorter (1.81) than Progreso (4.33). Danubio have also shown they can grind results when needed, like the 0-0 draw vs Nacional on 2025-10-12 despite being big underdogs. Progreso, to be fair, have upset away before too—winning 1-2 at Defensor Sporting on 2025-04-20 at odds of 5.5.
Current betting odds list Danubio at 2.12, the draw at 3.25, and Progreso at 4.0. Our numbers lean home, but not with “goal-fest” confidence. The Danubio vs Progreso prediction is shaped by expected game flow: Danubio around 60% possession, but only 5 shots (2 on target), while Progreso may reach 6 shots (2 on target). That’s effort, not fireworks.
Corners and cards also support a controlled, slightly tense game: 6 total corners (4-2), with Progreso projected to collect more bookings (3 yellows vs 1). Put it together and the clean narrative is: Danubio to press, Progreso to resist, and the scoreboard to move slowly.
Projected half-time score: 0-0. Predicted final score: Danubio 1-0 Progreso. If you’re building a simple bet, under 3.5 goals fits both the form and the numbers.
Read More
Derby match
U3.5 -417
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -4171 112
Danubio is expected to win with odds of 112Under 3.5 -417
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchNo -122
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U4.5 -217
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
0:0
1:0
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2
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6
-
7
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 Progreso |
24-Aug-25
1:0
| Danubio  |
| Progreso |
31-May-25
0:1
| Danubio |
| Danubio |
23-Feb-25
1:1
| Progreso |
| Progreso |
12-Oct-24
0:0
| Danubio |
| Danubio |
06-Apr-24
1:1
| Progreso |
| Progreso |
31-Aug-22
2:2
| Danubio |
| Danubio |
15-Feb-21
0:1
| Progreso |
| Progreso |
22-Aug-20
1:0
| Danubio |
| Progreso |
19-Oct-19
2:1
| Danubio |
| Progreso |
11-Aug-19
2:0
| Danubio |
Recent Matches of Danubio| 21 Feb | L |
Racing M
| 4 |
Danubio
| 0 |
| 15 Feb | W |
Danubio
| 2 |
Boston River
| 0 |
| 09 Feb | W |
CA Cerro
| 0 |
Danubio
| 1 |
| 12 Jan | L |
Boston River
| 1 |
Danubio
| 0 |
| 08 Nov | W |
Danubio
| 2 |
Plaza Colonia
| 0 |
| 02 Nov | W |
Racing M
| 1 |
Danubio
| 2 |
| 26 Oct | L |
Danubio
| 0 |
River Plate
| 1 |
| 18 Oct | D |
Boston River
| 0 |
Danubio
| 0 |
| 12 Oct | D |
Danubio
| 0 |
Club N
| 0 |
| 05 Oct | L |
Penarol
| 2 |
Danubio
| 0 |
Recent Matches of Progreso
| 21 Feb | L | Progreso |
0 |  Nacional |
1 |
| 14 Feb | L |  Maldonado |
2 | Progreso |
0 |
| 07 Feb | L | Progreso |
0 |  Central Esp. |
3 |
| 29 Jan | W |  Boston River |
1 | Progreso |
2 |
| 22 Jan | D | Nacional |
1 | Progreso |
1 |
| 19 Jan | W |  Juventud |
0 | Progreso |
1 |
| 12 Jan | D |  Defensor Sp. |
0 | Progreso |
0 |
| 09 Nov | D | Juventud |
1 | Progreso |
1 |
| 01 Nov | L | Progreso |
0 |  Torque |
5 |
| 26 Oct | L |  Liverpool |
3 | Progreso |
1 |
Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Central | 3 | 6-1 | 9 |
| 2 |
Club Nacional | 40 | 80-35 | 89 |
| 3 |
Penarol | 40 | 72-38 | 84 |
| 4 |
Deportivo | 3 | 7-4 | 6 |
| 5 |
Liverpool | 40 | 55-41 | 69 |
| 6 |
Defensor | 41 | 46-41 | 68 |
| 7 |
Juventud | 40 | 47-43 | 62 |
| 8 |
Racing | 40 | 46-43 | 57 |
| 9 |
Boston River | 40 | 51-43 | 56 |
| 10 |
Atletico | 41 | 62-56 | 56 |
| 11 |
Albion FC | 3 | 4-2 | 4 |
| 12 |
Cerro Largo | 40 | 43-44 | 52 |
| 13 |
Danubio | 40 | 44-45 | 49 |
| 14 |
Cerro | 40 | 34-47 | 48 |
| 15 |
Progreso | 40 | 38-66 | 39 |
| 16 |
Wanderers | 40 | 28-53 | 35 |
