Match Prediction
Match Prediction
England
Preview
If you’re searching for a Derby vs West Brom prediction ahead of their January 23, 2026, meeting at Pride Park, you’re in the right place. Let’s break down the stats, the stories, and the smart sports betting angles for this late-night Championship match. Whether you’re a seasoned fan or just starting to follow the league, this preview will help you see where the value might be hiding in the betting odds.
Derby and West Brom aren’t just two teams passing in the night—they’ve built up quite a history. Since 2003, Derby has the upper hand in their head to head record, winning 10 of the last 20 meetings, drawing 5, and losing just 5. If we zoom out to all 77 times they’ve met, Derby leads with 32 wins to West Brom’s 25, with 20 draws sprinkled in. The last time these two met, Derby edged it 2-1, and they’re currently riding a six-match winning streak against the Baggies across all competitions.
On the form front, Derby are looking lively. Sitting 10th in the Championship, they’ve won three of their last four, including away wins at Charlton and Preston North End. Their home form is a bit of a rollercoaster (4 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses), but lately, they’ve only lost once in their last four at Pride Park.
West Brom, on the other hand, are having a tough time. They’re 19th and just three points clear of the drop. It’s been a rough patch—four straight league losses, including a 5-0 drubbing from Norwich and a 3.2 defeat by Middlesbrough. Their away record? Not much to write home about: 3 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, with a staggering 10 consecutive away defeats. Derby’s fans will be hoping history repeats itself.
John Eustace has Derby playing with width and speed, often relying on set pieces. West Brom, under Eric Ramsay, are still working out the kinks of a new 3-4-3 system—so far, it’s been more “work in progress” than “finished masterpiece,” especially at the back.
So, what do the numbers and betting odds say for our Derby vs West Brom prediction? Here’s the lowdown:
NerdyTips’ AI leans toward 1X (home win or draw)—not a huge leap given Derby’s head to head dominance and West Brom’s travel sickness. The trust score is 3.4/10, so maybe don’t bet the house, but at odds of 1.47, it’s a steady pick for accumulators. The 1x2 market points to a Derby win (confidence 2.4, odds 2.72), while under 2.5 goals (confidence 2.2, odds 1.57) looks sensible—especially given both teams’ recent struggles to rack up big scores.
Our AI model predicts a 2:0 Derby win, with a 1:0 lead expected at half-time. Possession should be tight (49% Derby, 51% West Brom), and both teams are expected to get 12-13 shots and 4 on target. Even the corners are split down the middle at 6 apiece. It all points to a close game, but with Derby’s recent confidence and West Brom’s away-day blues, the value is with the home side.
In summary, this Derby vs West Brom prediction leans towards the home side, with a nod to a tight, tactical battle. If you’re betting, keep it sensible and use the stats to your advantage. Football is full of surprises, but right now, Derby look the safer pick—just don’t be surprised if West Brom try to upset the odds!
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Derby didn't play better in the last H2H match!
1X -213
Derby to win or draw with odds of -2131 172
Derby is expected to win with odds of 172Under 2.5 -161
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -125
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U4.5 -156
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1:0
2:0
|
|
8
-
3
-
1
|
|
 West Brom |
13-Sep-25
0:1
| Derby  |
| West Brom |
12-Aug-25
1:1
| Derby |
| West Brom |
21-Apr-25
1:3
| Derby |
| Derby |
26-Dec-24
2:1
| West Brom |
| Derby |
23-Aug-22
1:0
| West Brom |
| Derby |
27-Dec-21
1:0
| West Brom |
| West Brom |
14-Sep-21
0:0
| Derby |
| West Brom |
08-Jul-20
2:0
| Derby |
| Derby |
24-Aug-19
1:1
| West Brom |
| Derby |
05-May-19
3:1
| West Brom |
Recent Matches of Derby| 30 Jan |
Bristol City.
|
-
| Derby.
| |
| 23 Jan | D |
Derby.
|
1:1
| West Brom.
|
| 20 Jan | W |
Charlton.
|
1:2
| Derby.
|
| 17 Jan | W |
Preston.
|
0:1
| Derby.
|
| 11 Jan | L |
Derby.
|
1:3
| Leeds.
|
| 04 Jan | L |
Derby.
|
1:2
| Wrexham.
|
| 01 Jan | W |
Derby.
|
1:0
| Middlesbroug.
|
| 29 Dec | L |
Leicester.
|
2:1
| Derby.
|
| 26 Dec | D |
Birmingham.
|
1:1
| Derby.
|
| 20 Dec | D |
Derby.
|
1:1
| Portsmouth.
|
Recent Matches of West Brom
| 23 Jan | D | Derby. |
1:1 |
West Brom. |
| 20 Jan | L | West Brom. |
0:5 |
Norwich. |
| 16 Jan | L | West Brom. |
2:3 |
Middlesbroug. |
| 11 Jan | D |  Swansea. |
2:2 |
West Brom. |
| 05 Jan | L |  Leicester. |
2:1 |
West Brom. |
| 01 Jan | L | Swansea. |
1:0 |
West Brom. |
| 29 Dec | W | West Brom. |
2:1 |
QPR. |
| 26 Dec | L | West Brom. |
1:2 |
Bristol City. |
| 20 Dec | L |  Hull. |
1:0 |
West Brom. |
| 12 Dec | W | West Brom. |
2:0 |
Sheffield Ut. |
England - Championship| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Coventry | 29 | 61-31 | 59 |
| 2 |
Middlesbrough | 29 | 46-29 | 55 |
| 3 |
Ipswich | 28 | 48-27 | 50 |
| 4 |
Hull City | 28 | 47-40 | 50 |
| 5 |
Millwall | 29 | 36-35 | 49 |
| 6 |
Wrexham | 29 | 43-37 | 44 |
| 7 |
Bristol City | 29 | 40-31 | 43 |
| 8 |
Watford | 28 | 39-33 | 43 |
| 9 |
Preston | 29 | 36-33 | 43 |
| 10 |
Stoke City | 29 | 34-26 | 42 |
| 11 |
Derby | 29 | 39-37 | 42 |
| 12 |
QPR | 29 | 40-42 | 40 |
| 13 |
Birmingham | 29 | 39-38 | 39 |
| 14 |
Leicester | 29 | 40-43 | 38 |
| 15 |
Southampton | 29 | 41-41 | 37 |
| 16 |
Swansea | 29 | 32-37 | 36 |
| 17 |
Sheffield Utd | 28 | 39-41 | 35 |
| 18 |
Charlton | 28 | 27-38 | 32 |
| 19 |
West Brom | 29 | 32-44 | 32 |
| 20 |
Norwich | 29 | 35-40 | 31 |
| 21 |
Portsmouth | 27 | 24-37 | 30 |
| 22 |
Blackburn | 28 | 26-37 | 29 |
| 23 |
Oxford United | 28 | 27-36 | 27 |
| 24 |
Sheffield | 28 | 18-56 | -7 |
