Dobrudzha vs Cherno More Prediction

Dobrudzha vs Cherno More prediction: derby tension, low-score lean

Dobrudzha vs Cherno More prediction time is here, and it comes with the particular spice of a Northeast Bulgaria derby. Mark your calendars for 2026-02-28 at 13:00 GMT (15:00 local time), when Dobrudzha Dobrich host Cherno More Varna at Stadion Druzhba in Dobrich. It’s the kind of match where tackles arrive early, the crowd arrives earlier, and nobody expects gifts.

Derby context, form, and the human stuff

Dobrudzha are living the “back in the top flight” story after a long absence, but the table does not give out nostalgia points. Sitting around 15th, they are in survival mode. Since veteran coach Yasen Petrov arrived in January 2026, their mood has shifted: fewer risks, tighter lines, and a clear idea that home games are the route to safety. Recent results support that tone—an important 1–0 win over Montana (Feb 21) and a 0–0 with Botev Vratsa, with defensive discipline suddenly looking like a habit rather than a wish.

Cherno More, currently around 5th, are aiming for Europe while collecting draws like souvenirs. Their last three league games ended level (0–0, 1–1, 0–0), and while they remain hard to beat, the attack has occasionally looked like it’s trying to be too polite in the penalty area. Still, their overall defensive record is strong, conceding roughly 0.8 goals per game—perfect derby material.

Team notes that can shape the tactics

Expect a chess match between two respected coaches: Petrov—often praised for tactical discipline—up against Ilian Iliev, whose Cherno More usually press high in a 4-3.3 or 4-2-3-1. Petrov is also known to have had solid results in this managerial pairing, which adds a little extra intrigue.

• Dobrudzha absences: centre-back Zdravko Serafimov is still out (meniscus).
• Dobrudzha discipline watch: Matheus Leoni and Jhonatan Cuero sit on four yellows.
• Dobrudzha key outlet: Tomás Silva brings most of the creativity, with counters likely aimed through him (and support runners like Boubacar Hanne).
• Cherno More discipline watch: several regulars are one booking from suspension (Drobarov, Teles, Dani Martin, Donchev, Zlatev).
• Cherno More morale: national team call-ups in the camp should help confidence.
• Cherno More scoring note: top scorer Georgi Lazarov (8) has gone quiet in the last three matches.

Head to head adds another nudge toward caution: Cherno More edged the last meeting on 2025-01-18 by 1–0, and they also won earlier this season. But Dobrudzha have shown they can frustrate bigger names, like the surprising 0–0 away at CSKA 1948 (odds were 11.5). Cherno More also proved they can grind a big point, drawing 0–0 away to CSKA Sofia as underdogs.

Odds, betting tips, and NerdyTips model predictions

The market leans away from the hosts: Home win 3.8, Draw 3.3, Away win 2.1. Cherno More’s higher squad value (€6.05m vs €4.71m) fits that pricing, and so does their steadier season. Still, derby games often ignore balance sheets.

What the numbers suggest (and why)

• Best wager: Under 3.5 goals at 1.29 odds (confidence 8.0/10).
• 1X2 pick: Draw (X) at 3.3 odds (trust level 2.0).
• Expected score: 1:1, with half-time leaning 0:0.

Match stats projections support a controlled, low-scoring script: Dobrudzha 47% possession vs Cherno More 53%, shots 7–11, on-target 3–4, and 8 total corners (3–5). That profile usually points to “some chances, not a festival.” Add both teams’ recent draw habits, plus the disciplinary tightrope (nobody wants a silly suspension), and under 3.5 goals becomes the sensible betting tips headline.

So, our Dobrudzha vs Cherno More Prediction leans into patience: Cherno More may have more of the ball, Dobrudzha may have the sharper urgency, and the scoreboard may stay modest. If you want one neat takeaway for your Dobrudzha vs Cherno More prediction notes: think structured football, few clear openings, and a draw that feels like both teams can explain afterward.