Estoril vs Gil Vicente Prediction

Estoril vs Gil Vicente prediction: goals, form and value

The Estoril vs Gil Vicente prediction for Sunday, 2026-02-22 (18:00 GMT) lands at a perfect moment: two of the league’s feel-good stories meeting at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, both playing with enough belief to make the “European spots” conversation feel very real.

Estoril arrive as the classic late-bloomers. After an uneven start, the Canarinhos have turned 2026 into a highlight reel, piling up goals and momentum. Their recent scoring run is hard to ignore: 15 goals across the last five matches, including a 5-0 win over Estrela da Amadora and a 4-2 success against Vitória. Even at home, where control does not always equal comfort, they were held 2-2 by Tondela last time out—fun for neutrals, stressful for goalkeepers.

Gil Vicente, meanwhile, have been the “best of the rest” behind Portugal’s traditional giants. The Roosters’ 2-1 comeback win over Braga was the type of result that changes how a dressing room walks into the next match. They have won four of the last five, and they are also chasing history, sitting on a points pace that could beat their club record in the Primeira Liga.

Tactical story: brave Estoril vs pressing Gil Vicente

There’s a real coaching narrative here too, and it’s not just media hype. Ian Cathro has Estoril playing a proactive 4-3-3, focused on technical quality, quick transitions, and the idea of “getting the next goal” rather than protecting the last one. César Peixoto’s Gil Vicente often line up in a 4-2-3-1 (or a flexible 4-3-3) built around aggressive pressing and a confident mentality—especially against bigger names.

What to watch on the pitch

• Estoril’s attacking rhythm: they have been one of the league’s most productive sides, and the confidence shows in their chance creation.
• Gil Vicente’s pressure and vertical play: quick recoveries, fast entries into the final third, and an ability to suffer without panicking.
• Key absences and returns: Estoril are still without André Lacximicant, Or Israelov, and Xeka, but should welcome back Antef Tsoungui after suspension.
• Gil Vicente’s question marks: Jonathan Mutombo and Mohamed Bamba are doubts, Santi García is suspended, and Sphephelo Sithole remains out.

Individually, Estoril’s Yanis Begraoui has been the headline act—January’s Forward of the Month—while João Carvalho has also been in peak form. For Gil Vicente, Luis Esteves has been the main creative engine, and Héctor Hernández (a winter addition) has already made a “super-sub” impact and could start.

For context, the most recent head to head meeting (2024-08-25) ended 0-0, a reminder that this fixture can sometimes hit pause. But this season’s reverse game reportedly went Gil Vicente’s way 2-0, and with current attacking form, a repeat of the old stalemate feels less likely.

Odds, NerdyTips betting tips, and AI predictions

The market sees a tight game: Home win 2.85, Draw 3.35, Away win 2.55. That slight lean toward Gil Vicente matches the sense that they’ve been a bit more stable week-to-week, even if Estoril’s squad value (€31.90m) edges Gil Vicente’s (€28.75m).

Main pick: Over 1.5 goals

NerdyTips’ AI and our model agree on the standout angle: Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with confidence/trust 8.5/10. The reasoning is supported by the projected match stats: Estoril 11 shots (4 on target) vs Gil Vicente 14 shots (5 on target). That’s enough volume to expect at least a couple of goals—unless both keepers suddenly decide to audition for a superhero movie.

• Recommended bet: Over 1.5 goals
• Odds: 1.31
• Confidence: 8.5/10

1X2 lean: Gil Vicente to win (but low confidence)

For the 1X2 market, the AI points to an away win (“2”) at 2.55, but with a very low confidence of 1.5. That’s important: it’s more of a lean than a firm call. Why so cautious? Because the possession estimate is almost even (Estoril 51%, Gil Vicente 49%), corners are level (5-5), and disciplinary expectations are modest (2 yellows vs 1). In other words, the model sees a balanced game state where small moments decide everything.

1. 1X2 prediction: Away win
2. Odds: 2.55
3. Confidence: 1.5/10

Correct score and game script

The projected half-time score is 1-1, suggesting a lively start rather than a slow burn. The final score prediction is 2-3, which fits the “both teams can punch” theme and supports the core Estoril vs Gil Vicente Prediction focus on goals.

One last reminder for bettors: both teams have already produced surprises this season—Estoril beat Braga 1-0 at huge odds (5.2), and Gil Vicente held Sporting CP to a 1-1 draw when few saw it coming. So keep your staking sensible, enjoy the football, and let the goals do the talking.